LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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I love reading about that. That was one of the most undermeasured HECS in the recorded history of NYC. I think both March 1888 and January 1996 were significantly undermeasured here. Probably February 1978 too. And PD2 for NYC (JFK measured it better.) There's probably a few from the 60s that make that list too (February 1961, February 1969.) And my benchmark storm February 1983. Very windy very long duration snowstorms are the hardest to measure. But back to March 1888 the sheer enormity of it and the totals reported from Brooklyn and Queens indicate to me that it was probably around 30" in NYC. January 1996 was probably around 25-28" PD2 probably around 20-22" at NYC and ditto for February 1983 .And keep in mind they only measured at the end of the storm back then.
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oh okay another bad one (but not as bad as 89-90 and 01-02)
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neutrals are the worst possible outcome. neutrals after la ninas include some of the worst winters ever.... 89-90, 01-02 and 11-12 being three examples.
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we might actually need a near strong el nino to offset the la nina atmospheric state
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won't be 1972-73 strong either. I like 2002-03 right now
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I'm hoping for something like 02-03, what are your thoughts on that, Ray? It's interesting that 1982 was mentioned since today is the 40th anniversary of the February 1983 blizzard when 2 feet of snow fell here, it was the benchmark storm of the 80s and the benchmark snowstorm of my youth. A great Cat 4 HECS.
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Sometimes I wonder if people confuse plausibility with plausible deniability lol
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meh if we get one 6 inch storm in March or even early April you'll have a more positive outlook and look forward to next winter. At this point I think you'll even settle for a March 2001 redux lol.
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Yeah that record can be broken I agree with that, just not in a 14-15 kind of set up here. 14-15 can get us to 50" just not the 80" we would need to get there. Historically we need 3 really good months so that's what I'm going to go with. With three months of 20"+ or even two months of 20"+ plus two other pretty good months we can do it. That basically gives us what we got in 95-96.....the only other thing we would need is to get rid of that nasty three week mild/rainy spell in the middle of January in 96. Do you know what we would need to make that happen? Historically ENSO accounts for only about 20% of our winter weather....but where it seems to exert its greatest influence is la ninas that come after el ninos. Note that 95-96, 10-11 and 17-18 were all la ninas..... 02-03 was our best el nino in recent times, we got almost 60" here.
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Yeah....you're not bright enough to realize I don't want to use it...especially when it comes to posting a dozen or more times in a row. I just weenied 15 of your posts, looks like I'm not the only one weenieing you either. Huge waste of time spending even a second on someone like you. Got anything else to say "bro"?
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nah I dont like to pollute my mind with inferiority lol
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Not extinct but not likely either. I do think 95-96 can be broken but it won't be in a 6 week pattern, it will have to happen over a three month period.
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Let's see if we can ever get that kind of consistent pattern again. I do think that record can be broken, in a wall to wall winter. NYC only got 0.8" in April I believe, so that amount doesn't matter...JFK had about 5" that was a coastal event.
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and RTD208 stop weenieing otherwise I'll go through all your posts and weenie every single one of them-- just watch.
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NYC record is close to 80" I don't believe this can be done in a 6 week period, in a wall to wall winter, it's possible. We would rather have a wall to wall anyway. But we are completely ignoring what's happened to the climate, I hope you realize that. It's like being on a completely different planet now, I would not be enthused about breaking those records, we need to be realistic.
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Yeah I compiled this list of what is realistically possible by month....I had 12" for March and 6" for April.
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Boston already had close to 100" in previous historic winters. You really cannot compare Boston to New York, it's night and day.
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There's not that much of a difference between coastal NJ and Brooklyn and NYC.....if you look at late season patterns, I'd argue that Brooklyn and coastal NJ actually do better than NYC because of what you said before about colder water temps...vs Manhattan being much more urbanized. There's a few storms that prove this....April 1996 and April 1997 being near the top of the list. Still not historic but 10" is definitely possible late in the season.
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Yes February is fine, it's the best month for snowfall. Things change rapidly in March.
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Coastal water temps isn't a concern, getting snow to stick in urban areas is the concern.
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I'd look through past history and what happened in 10-11 and 17-18 and that pretty much maxes out what is possible in our region. Two twenty inch snowstorms plus a couple of moderate storms......we need to be realistic
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Of course it can snow in March, just not 20"+
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Yeah 10/11 maxes it out for us....we aren't in Boston's league, it's like comparing a minor league team to a major league team.
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Yeah, big difference between 10 and 20 though. 10 is doable
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DC is much further inland...if you want to look for ideal patterns look at March 2018-April 2018....that is probably the best that can be done in the modern era that late in the season.
