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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    What’s interesting is that there’s 2 camps to the argument here. 1 camp is arguing that a C5 was justifiable based on the recon data just prior to landfall and the other is saying Michael was only a C2. The only plausible reason I can think of that would allow these ideas to coexist can only be summed up as “humanity.”
  2. hlcater
    Let us remember this excerpt from then Subtropical Storm Leslie Adv 1 all the way back on September 23rd: Yea that didn't really pan out well. To make things worse, Leslie has had like 25 aces up her sleeve since then, the NHC just cant pin her down. GFS proceeds to keep Leslie alive through FH240 on the 00z.
  3. hlcater
    Fake. The sky is blue. Everyone knows it’s actually grey.
  4. hlcater
    I’d be okay with this active pattern running into December/January to be honest. However, didn’t someone say that wet falls tend to lead to drier winters? Maybe it was cold falls lead to warmer winters. It was some sort of inverse correlation like that.
  5. hlcater
    Solid sounding at 18z near Williamsburg with exactly 0 means for initiation. Nice.
  6. hlcater
    The Driftless Area in NE IA and SW WI might be a good bet. Plenty of deep cuts and valleys with very picturesque streams its very heavily forested as well.
  7. hlcater
    Can you post a percent of the mean map for the same period? Or provide a link so that I can do it? Either one works!
  8. hlcater
    Our rivers are still flooded at several gauges. We can't handle another deluge.
  9. hlcater
    I like the look of next weekend, particularly the look the GFS is advertising. Both the GFS and the Euro have a seasonably strong trough coming into the west with a 60-70kt 500mb jet over mid/upper 60s dews across much of the plains. Sunday looks to be the biggest day as of right now, but things are going to change. Even then, going off the pattern alone, some sort of severe weather looks probable.
  10. hlcater
    Sounds like the EC is gonna get off hour cycles coming up here soon. Awesome!
  11. hlcater
    Better preemptively seek shelter now before it’s too late.
  12. hlcater
    This might be(and probably is) totally wrong, but the little mesovortex that tracked over Cedar Rapids might have changed the wind direction to southerly(towards it), especially for the area immediately to the south and east of where it tracked, you’d fall into that pool. Down in Iowa City, it was northwesterly, as expected. Probably about 50mph in magnitude here.
  13. hlcater
    The Caribbean as a whole has been pretty unfavorable this year. Not holding my breath.
  14. hlcater
    #shelfie today as aforementioned storms passed thru IC earlier. (Black bars suck, but amwx wanted to be difficult so I had to do it that way)
  15. hlcater
    But the point I was trying to make is I don't think that happens at a fast enough rate such that it outpaces the speed of upwelling, especially for a storm the size of Florence.
  16. hlcater
    Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve
  17. hlcater
    Given the large size and Levi’s most recent video, it probably won’t consolidate a single true eyewall anymore. It’s essentially a bariatric hurricane. Too large and overweight to the point it’s causing detrimental effects to the health of the storm.
  18. hlcater
    Looks like things got pretty spicy in here.
  19. hlcater
    I dont think the eye is 60-70 miles wide. It may look like it is, but recon did a little loop inside the eyewall. Unless that wasn't what you were using to judge size. Does anyone have a vortex message?
  20. hlcater
    That looks like an old analysis as it hasnt updated thru 9/13 00z. Looks like from midday or so.
  21. hlcater
    What does that graphic have it at now? -assuming there's a newer version for say... 03z-04z.
  22. hlcater
    There has to be some poorly analyzed shear impacting florence, it's had problems getting anything going to the SW of the core all evening. Until this is fixed, florence should struggle to intensify much.
  23. hlcater
    I wonder why this is? Satellite presentation(after taking a dump late this afternoon) has been improving this evening. Even the morning recon when the storm was still in an EWRC and the sat. presentation was worse still had more robust winds. I'm very confused to say the least.
  24. hlcater
    I think this has less to do with the ERC and more to do with the fact the SW quad has been pretty beat up the past 4-6 hours.
  25. hlcater
    SW eyewall is frankly not that impressive. Only 100kts SFMR.
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