hlcater

Clocked in Cedar Rapids. Rode it out in a corn field north of walford where I experienced 100mph wind gusts as the MCV intensified to the north. This is the same axis of damaging wind that came thru Cedar Rapids moving NE. I’ll leave a few pics for now. Worst storm I’ve ever experienced. Still without power and cell signal(1 bar LTE currently). I’ll post more when I can. For now here’s a few. https://imgur.com/a/Ezml1sS

Saw something like this coming last night with the steep lapse rates, big CAPE and 50kt jet nosing in. (Tho I saw something like this coming Sunday too and it never did, due to OFBs and poor destabilization). Well this one’s here, it’s not dying any time soon and I’m ready.

TD10 about to waste the best name on the entire 2020 list for a 40mph TS. Sad!

This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th.

Looking at medium to long-range ensembles, the signal for a potentially active pattern is really quite strong(especially given the range) and it's hard not to like what is being shown. First off, subtle system coming into the west next week will probably yield some chase worthy days with a potential lull for a few days over the weekend.By weeks 2/3 things really get interesting, the modeled jet extension starts to come into play here and this is where that super consistent -- both run to run and model to model -- signal is located. Northern hemispheric pattern is also following a rather textbook evolution that tends to lead towards active periods for plains severe wx potential and supports this evolution. The current ridge over the Yukon/Alaska slowly retrogrades with time and ultimately ends up somewhere over Eastern Siberia. Furthermore, a ridge looks to build to a limited degree over Hawaii, with multiple strong waves crossing the pacific on a track for the western US courtesy of an active jet. Looking like the long-range could evolve into a fairly active stretch and given the range there's really quite the signal for it. It also makes sense with AAM/GWO transition but the mechanisms of how AAM and tropical forcing mettle with patterns is not my cup of tea (though to be fair none of this hemispheric stuff really is). One last thing is that the AAM/GWO transition is not as amplified as last year which might mean that the resulting pattern is not as amplified (someone correct if wrong), and if that is the case, combined with an Actually Present EML™, could set up a really nice chasing period. I'm obviously very optimistic.However, one thing that does put me on hold here is the tendency for low latitude troughing to show up on some ensemble runs. The gulf is cooking this year so whether or not this actually has any significant effect with such a strong gulf and being in the second half of May remains to be seen, but it is there off and on and is worth noting.But for now, let's just treat ourselves with this. 18z GEFS pacific pattern gif just because:

Iowa has closed all schools for 4 weeks per Kim Reynolds.

SARS-CoV-2(the virus itself) is susceptible to UV light just like all coronaviruses are. So I’m optimistic that once we get to may, this thing will be winding down. Heres a few links that I really like and are extraordinarily useful Fairly in depth and comprehensive synopsis of what this virus actually is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ ArcGIS dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Graphs and growth curves for certain countries: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Needless to say im disappointed in the amount of media catalyzed hype and panic buying that I’ve seen on twitter and elsewhere. Namely a certain joe rogan podcast with 6M views that was an absolute crime and is the equivalent of a weenie freaking out over a 384hr GFS kuchera map. But I think moving universities online and closing large public gatherings makes sense and is a necessary step to flatten the curve and prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed like it was in Italy and China.

1337 tornadoes and the first high risk will be on 4/20.

the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me

What’s most surprising to me is all that water.

I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

the thread that never dies

Tomorrow looks decent, but I think wednesday looks likely to grow upscale into an MCS rather quickly.

That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.

Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900

Guys! The ERTAF is showing some hope in the long range! http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/

Well the primary jet really likes the northern conus and Canada, so I think sustained periods of AOA 40kts flow over the plains will be hard to come by. Thinking “day-of” events, upslope and boundaries are going to rule the 2nd half of may. However, with sufficient moisture and instability, this can work.

2nd week of may looks to be dominated by a pretty hefty ridge in the west based on both operational models and their ensembles. Not sure how long it’ll be after this trough early week. I’d hedge to say that it’s gonna be quiet for at least 5 days after that.

I wouldn't call next week's setup ideal... it's got problems. Particularly problems with moisture(especially on the euro side of things) and the GFS digs the trough deep enough such that 500mb orientation is mediocre at best. I'm not seeing an outbreak, but I'm seeing perhaps a few events in the plains from this.

Tornado EMERGENCY in Louisiana for this nasty tornado right here. That thing is meeaannnn.

I think the NAM is suffering from convective feedback, especially across TN. Therefore I’d probably take its output with a grain of salt.

You guys are getting (measurable)snow before we are IN IOWA! I highly doubt that's ever happened before.

I've noticed there seems to be a problem with the GFS over-amplifying TCs lately. It was doing this last week too and has in the EPAC as well, although to a lesser extent. I'm pretty sure the GFS just had an update recently and this update brought a bit of an over-amplifying issue it seems. Either way, I wouldn't buy that, although decent strengthening is probable, just not to 870mb.