hlcater

I think it looks better than earlier. More symmetrical, and cloud tops are slightly cooler, but it did lose some of the banding.

154kts. OH WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT. I, for one, am surprised.

Probably the NHC.

Also because the NHC will do that because Lane was an eastern pacific storm. Probably with some collaboration from the CPHC though.

Yea they’re definitely in over their heads here. Central pacific doesn’t deal with many strong cyclones, let alone ones that pose a threat to the islands.

New recon is in the air, but probably won't make it before the 03z advisory. Not that CPHC uses recon... But satellite presentation has gradually improved, perhaps that will convince them to upgrade?

Lots of people throwing up their arms at that call. Ya'll aren't the only ones.

I wish, but they've already stayed past their scheduled time and are probably running low on fuel.

Dropsonde from the northern eyewall. Value closest to surface is 148kts, however it doesn't say surface explicitly, so I'm going to assume its just above and something happened to it before it made splashdown. Normally it'll say (surface) in parenthesis if everything goes right. Even then, the value would almost have to be ~140kts. My guess for the 00z advisory is 140kt/928mb.

If you really look, I can notice a tinge of westerly shear, noted by the ever so slight lopside to the east. Doesn’t seem to really be troubling the hurricane though.

The storm stands no chance if it comes up in behind the big island. The combination of wind disruption and downsloping would almost certainly wreak havoc on the inner core of the storm, making quick work of it no matter how strong it is coming in. This would greatly reduce wind impacts on the other islands. However, there would be some pretty hefty rainfall amounts on the big island if this were the case as all the incoming moisture would be effectively wraught out.

I only got 0.88". Southern Hiawatha easily got 3"+, tons of street flooding on Collins Rd.

Also keeping in mind no one ever predicts a slow, awful winter. It's always gonna be the coldest, snowiest, record shattering gung ho winter of all time in the preceding August. I just keep my sanity and dont really pay attention until November at the earliest

Yes. Subtrops that never go tropical are still named and counted in post-season analysis.

looks like the DTX/SE MI no watch streak is now over

I think hector has serious potential to make it all the way well into the west pac. Some weenie runs even have it making landfall in Asia? Realistically, the only thing I can see weakening it for the next 7 days is dry air. Upper air pattern generally has under 15kts shear through this period. However, there is quite a bit of dry air forecast to be around the system that may intrude from time to time. SSTs are conducive, albeit not for a particularly intense storm, more than enough to survive off of.

15 total tornadoes confirmed in Iowa on 7/19. 13 from DMX and 2 from DVN EF0: 8 EF1: 3 EF2: 2 EF3: 2

Doesn't take much to get in record departure territory in a barotropic environment.

Ow. That’s all I can say.

the thread that never dies

Nice catch! See any more? I was on the storm that tracked from Newton/Monroe/Pella. and got 6. I posted in the lakes/ohio valley thread with my pics. This day will probably end up verifying closer to a 15% than a 2%.

Oof. Not their best forecast ever. Western portions of the MDT today will bust as well. But eastern portions of the outlook will probably do fine.

Right split has died and left split is thriving out on the far western KY/TN border. That's always a good sign... I was never impressed with shear profiles regarding tornado potential today. Especially in the W/SW part of the risk area. Wind profiles were sufficient for a couple tornadoes, yes(and we got that) but didn't see much that warranted a 10% in my eyes, again, especially with W/SW extent where surface winds were significantly more veered. I'm not confident this new development will save the day either as winds have veered with time across the whole warm sector.