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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Perhaps. The RAP/HRRR are about a county or two north than the euro with the heavy snow. I think that doesn't come to fruition, but what I do think is plausible is the heavy snow right up until the edge. Seems that's often a feature in bigger storms(especially with dry air in the north) and something the globals don't handle too well. I think the area of literally nothing and 10" is going to be much tighter than current forecasts.
  2. hlcater
    I see that northern edge . Lets have that happen.
  3. hlcater
    Wide array of possibilities for CR as well. Most likely looks like an incredibly close miss to the southeast. I stand by my first call of 1-3” for my backyard. 2-4” at CR airport and 5-8” in IC.
  4. hlcater
    I still don’t think CR gets anything, but using the NAM is unwise. That model has had literally no consistency and wavers N/S every other run. It doesn’t have a clue. I do think the GFS caves, but the NAM probably isn’t the best indicator of that.
  5. hlcater
    Nah on the euro I don’t see any QPF. Neither does Des Moines. Ultimate screw you for CR/DMX/IC.
  6. hlcater
    That is true. But at least for me, Chicago and snow storms is like a grudge. I’d rather IWX or central Illinois got it, granted they were never in the cards with this particular storm.
  7. hlcater
    Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically.
  8. hlcater
    I’ll take my 1-3” and treat it like a blizzard. Chicago doesn’t lose. Kinda sour not because I’m missing it but because Chicago wins.
  9. hlcater
    Cyclone is sitting pretty for this.
  10. hlcater
    I love and admire the consistency of the GFSs, but I’ve gotta go with consensus. Massive coup if the gfs pulls through, but I don’t see it unfortunately.
  11. hlcater
    Say what you will, but by far the most consistent model has been the GFS-FV3. It’s been through the heart of E IA for days now essentially unwavered. It remains to be seen how it performs in the winter, but the pure consistency should be noted.
  12. hlcater
    RGEM and RDPS are the same. Just as GGEM and GDPS are also the same.
  13. hlcater
    So was the RGEM, but those two tend to trend similarly, for obvious reasons.
  14. hlcater
    Honestly there’s still not much consensus, perhaps less than yesterday. We have the EC on the far southern end of the envelope and the GFS on the far northern end, with all other models somewhere in between.
  15. hlcater
    Yea the 06z and 12z suites have both jumped north from 00z, 12z NAM aside.
  16. hlcater
    Yea. I was almost sure the GFS was too far south and progressive yesterday and was talking with Stebo about it. Then the rest of the guidance joined it 18/00z so I kinda shut up. After every model jumped south, I was starting to think the GFS had the right idea all along. Still plenty of time and the system is not onshore like you mentioned though so another jump south is still well within the realm of possibility.
  17. hlcater
    I love that GFS run, massive shift north. Unusual as it had been the furthest south model for days. I expected it to remain steadfast
  18. hlcater
    I’m not quite discouraged yet, but the trend is not our friend here. One thing I have noticed is the feature that will become the Superior/hudson low came ashore slightly weaker than the NAM/GFS. I do dislike how it seems like it’s always a nail biter for CR.
  19. hlcater
    That’s what I was looking for. Thanks. They just mentioned the southern trend and nothing else. Thought it was odd they were that brief with it. Normally they add something else to support their forecast instead of a single trend
  20. hlcater
    DVNs AFD was kinda lackluster in terms of model diagnostics. Didn’t say much other than noting a southward shift. Was hoping for more discussion than that. 06z models ticked a bit farther north, but the 12z NAM is back to being super ugly.
  21. hlcater
    lol.... A classic Linn County cut-off. (Yes its kuchera but it's not my map and that's my excuse). As it always seems, CR is riding the edge on much of the guidance and 8" and literally nothing are both equally valid solutions.
  22. hlcater
    Euro took a decent jump south, like the rest of 00z. CR/IC gets actively avoided by any formidable winter storm I swear. EDIT: To support this, I've only measured 12" once in 10 years and Hawkeye never has.
  23. hlcater
    Very definite SE trend on the NAM and ICON at 00z.
  24. hlcater
    I’d still say so, it’s still well SE of the Euro and FV3 especially.
  25. hlcater
    We’ll see, but given that the GFS is so much faster compared to consensus and given history of similar shenanigans, I find it difficult to put much weight on it, especially because it’s the outlier. DVN agreed in their AFD(either current or the 3am one)
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