hlcater

umm no? That's a separate event. I'm talking west for IA and MO. The Sunday event and maybe monday?(idk it looks like garbage to me) are different setups on different days that just happen to involve the same boundary. The NAM/GFS have backed off a bit for Saturday, but still looks okay.

NAM/GFS 12z runs look nice along the warm front on Saturday, but the position and to a degree, the orientation of this boundary is still up in the air.

That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.

Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900

Guys! The ERTAF is showing some hope in the long range! http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/

Well the primary jet really likes the northern conus and Canada, so I think sustained periods of AOA 40kts flow over the plains will be hard to come by. Thinking “day-of” events, upslope and boundaries are going to rule the 2nd half of may. However, with sufficient moisture and instability, this can work.

First 2 initials and last name. Probably shoulda clarified that lol.

Changed my name to hlcater because quite frankly, my old one isn't really very practical any more, and probably never will be. This one is much more versatile.

ummmm

The triple point looks interesting in Iowa tomorrow. SPC even has a 10% hatched there on the D2. Of course triple point concerns apply, upscale growth, storm motions into the cool sector etc. but if it looks good enough, I’ll see if I can find time to head to south central Iowa tomorrow. Regardless, convection seems to organize into 1 or 2 MCSs with time.

2nd week of may looks to be dominated by a pretty hefty ridge in the west based on both operational models and their ensembles. Not sure how long it’ll be after this trough early week. I’d hedge to say that it’s gonna be quiet for at least 5 days after that.

I wouldn't call next week's setup ideal... it's got problems. Particularly problems with moisture(especially on the euro side of things) and the GFS digs the trough deep enough such that 500mb orientation is mediocre at best. I'm not seeing an outbreak, but I'm seeing perhaps a few events in the plains from this.

I need warmth. Absolutely sick of snow.

Oh yeah, this right here is just great. Actually this is EXACTLY what I want to see. This trough just decides that it needs to park itself over the eastern conus, because why on earth would we want southern flow anywhere in the central US? Too add on to this, Massachusetts has higher dews than the YUCATAN PENINSULA.

Tornado EMERGENCY in Louisiana for this nasty tornado right here. That thing is meeaannnn.

Occluding low doesn't lend itself to a tornado threat real well. But these systems almost always have a strongly forced line/QLCS along the cold/occluded front in that narrow axis of instability. At this time, I'm more interested in areas further south. But I guess we can hope the trough deamplifies someand the surface low doesn't occlude as fast can't we . Should the surface low not occlude(which I think is unlikely for our area), a more significant event could be in the cards.

You’re gonna need a 60% hatched to impress Jeff nowadays, meanwhile here is a sounding off the euro.(I found it so don’t expect any more) It’s near sterling, IL

This current storm is gonna push this winter into solid B territory. Despite the no snow first 3 weeks of December, we had a nice run from Christmas eve followed by record cold during early January. Then the second half of January largely failed to show up until the amazing early February stretch that pretty much carried this winter. Snow every day for a week straight was unusual here and it was awesome. This would have been a C- winter by itself. Then we the storm we just got was fantastic. 2 hours of thundersnow, followed by a nice steady moderate day time snow for a total either side of 9". This winter is odd in the sense that nearly all of our snow here came during 3 periods with sizable lulls of nothing in between.

Can we please ditch the -NAO?

I think the NAM is suffering from convective feedback, especially across TN. Therefore I’d probably take its output with a grain of salt.

ERTAF(fwiw, which I think it’s actually pretty good) has that period marked for above average tornado activity as well.

Also because the tornadoes themselves were pretty much all rain wrapped farts that lasted 2 minutes before getting inflow chopped by another storm, because many of the days last year featured way too many storms, like the opposite of cap busting. I hope to God we can at least beat the quality of the tornadoes last year. Anyway my guess for this year: 1275 tornadoes First high risk: March 13th in AR/LA/MS

Pretty sure you summed up mike morgan as a whole right there.

You guys are getting (measurable)snow before we are IN IOWA! I highly doubt that's ever happened before.

Bouncing around with the rough placement of this body of cold air. But they all have been remarkably consistent in having this cold air present and have been hinting at storm potential somewhere, but that's where the consistency ends. I'm just happy that we've got a solid mass of seemingly persistent cold air for systems to feed on. Obviously better if the main body of cold air is further west, like you mentioned, but as long as its cold without dry northwest flow, I'll take it. But I do expect the cold(maybe stormy?) look to last, maybe even for those further south.