hlcater

Tomorrow’s setup in IL/IN is completely foreign to me and I honestly have no idea what to think of it. Especially the hodographs. 0-6km shear is nothing short of substantial and likely results in storm motions exceeding 40kts, but wind aloft is significantly backed and in much less magnitude. The result is a hodograph I’ve literally never seen before where it doubles back on itself. What the result of this is, perhaps rain on inflow? Similarly, never seen 0-6km shear contrast with abysmally low EBWD that is typically far too low to support supercells. To me, storm speed seems to suggest that this environment appears far more sheared than it actually is in a storm relative sense. If storms can initiate on a confluence zone in S IL or elsewhere, my guess is that we get fast moving clusters of storms and transient supercell structures with perhaps a few tornadoes owing to large SRH values present(note the sounding posted is on the conservative end of guidance) I’d feel better if EBWD and cloud layer shear weren’t in the gutter. Thermos should be sufficient but not stellar and shear aloft is better with northward extent tomorrow. Definitely interested to see what results from this.

This is easily going to be one of the worst storm chasing seasons of all time.

The storms a few nights ago dumped on me. Measured 1.98”.

This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th.

Can we just take a moment to appreciate the beauty of this?

In other news, tomorrow looks conditionally fun for some low topped supercell action and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming atmosphere sufficiently destabilizes. Environment is very similar to today's setup in the Arklatex and is reminiscent of classic low topped supercell days.

Finally getting around to it, but I also chased the HP supercell in Iowa last Thursday. I never did find my localized area of backed winds, but was bored and needed something to occupy my time so I went out anyways. Storm went up farther west than I thought it would, initiating all the way back by I35, when I was expecting initiation near Oskaloosa or Ottumwa. Arrived on the storm near Melcher Dallas and found it to be OD and sucking strong but cold inflow. This is just how this storm was, and never at any point while I was on it did I think it had any significant tornado potential. Chased it to near Washington, where I let it run over me and went back to catch some rainbow/sunset stuff. Core was far more intense than I was expecting it to be however, and I encountered what I would crudely estimate to be winds in excess of 75mph and some pea size hail. Fun local chase overall.

The NAMs show the type of environment I’m looking for with regards to tornadoes. Both have an area of localized backing in W IL with good thermos.

I would ideally like to see more surface backing tomorrow(to SSW or even due S) than is currently modeled if I were forecasting for tornadoes. Storm motion is also boundary parallel, but that doesn't seem like a variable that is likely to change. Lapse rates through 500mb per 18z runs are actually quite steep (all exceeding 7.0*C/km) and would support a damaging wind and potentially even a hail threat should any supercells evolve. I'll be out if it looks like any enhanced corridors of low level shear are likely to evolve. Looking pretty sloppy regardless.

Looking at medium to long-range ensembles, the signal for a potentially active pattern is really quite strong(especially given the range) and it's hard not to like what is being shown. First off, subtle system coming into the west next week will probably yield some chase worthy days with a potential lull for a few days over the weekend.By weeks 2/3 things really get interesting, the modeled jet extension starts to come into play here and this is where that super consistent -- both run to run and model to model -- signal is located. Northern hemispheric pattern is also following a rather textbook evolution that tends to lead towards active periods for plains severe wx potential and supports this evolution. The current ridge over the Yukon/Alaska slowly retrogrades with time and ultimately ends up somewhere over Eastern Siberia. Furthermore, a ridge looks to build to a limited degree over Hawaii, with multiple strong waves crossing the pacific on a track for the western US courtesy of an active jet. Looking like the long-range could evolve into a fairly active stretch and given the range there's really quite the signal for it. It also makes sense with AAM/GWO transition but the mechanisms of how AAM and tropical forcing mettle with patterns is not my cup of tea (though to be fair none of this hemispheric stuff really is). One last thing is that the AAM/GWO transition is not as amplified as last year which might mean that the resulting pattern is not as amplified (someone correct if wrong), and if that is the case, combined with an Actually Present EML™, could set up a really nice chasing period. I'm obviously very optimistic.However, one thing that does put me on hold here is the tendency for low latitude troughing to show up on some ensemble runs. The gulf is cooking this year so whether or not this actually has any significant effect with such a strong gulf and being in the second half of May remains to be seen, but it is there off and on and is worth noting.But for now, let's just treat ourselves with this. 18z GEFS pacific pattern gif just because:

Sleeper setup that could be alright if moisture/thermos are there. Nothing high end and there's a ton of uncertainty regarding convective evolution, but these tight surface lows kind of have a hot hand in 2020. I'll be keeping a half eye on it for potentially a local chase Tuesday.

I’m still mad about that

The NAM is actually the worst model in the suite right now. I think the globals(particularly the UK) are painting a better setup. The primary difference between them and the NAM is the fact that the NAM is significantly faster

Quite a signal coming in from the UKie. Has had something similar for 3 or 4 runs now.

Iowa has closed all schools for 4 weeks per Kim Reynolds.

SARS-CoV-2(the virus itself) is susceptible to UV light just like all coronaviruses are. So I’m optimistic that once we get to may, this thing will be winding down. Heres a few links that I really like and are extraordinarily useful Fairly in depth and comprehensive synopsis of what this virus actually is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ ArcGIS dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Graphs and growth curves for certain countries: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Needless to say im disappointed in the amount of media catalyzed hype and panic buying that I’ve seen on twitter and elsewhere. Namely a certain joe rogan podcast with 6M views that was an absolute crime and is the equivalent of a weenie freaking out over a 384hr GFS kuchera map. But I think moving universities online and closing large public gatherings makes sense and is a necessary step to flatten the curve and prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed like it was in Italy and China.

1337 tornadoes and the first high risk will be on 4/20.

I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/

It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.

the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me

What’s most surprising to me is all that water.

I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

the thread that never dies