hlcater

I think the GFS is too far SE and too progressive as it often is.

10:1 Euro map. Taking a risk posting it, but it's freely available on weather.us now(though not rendered out that far yet). I also think they adjusted their color curve up a few notches. Cyan used to be 24" and pink used to be 8".

Still thinking we see a NW trend, given overall strength of the system and time of year. Though the system Friday into Saturday and the ensuing CAA may prevent that from occurring.

Average of measurements at my location comes out to 2.9" of wet, dense snow. I just measured it now, so I might have lost a couple tenths due to compaction.

HRRR continues to juice 'er up. Likely somewhat of a result of that convective banding it keeps indicating.

HRRR is fairly robust relative to the other models and even seems to suggest some convective elements near the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

Most models bring a clipper through IA Friday evening into Saturday.

I picked up about an inch in Iowa City from this. Wettens the tongue for winter.

There’s some low level CAPE as well, so there could be some convective elements accompanying any snow associated with that vort too. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a more “squally” nature to the snow bands.

I agree. (Biased because im one of their mods) At which point I am going to shamelessly plug ourselves. Mods please remove if not allowed. http://bit.ly/StormtrackDiscord And to keep this post related to the event, the current cells arent going to do much in the near term as they are dealing with some poorly forecasted CINH. HRRR and other CAMs do slowly alleviate it through 07z, but given that its now after dark, any CINH accumulated would be more difficult to remove, I'd think at least.

The people in the SE don’t care unless it’s snow and in Georgia/Carolina. Maybe the best spot is Weather Forecasting/Discussion? Since it crosses multiple subs

Sounds like the NWS is gonna begin issuing snow squall warnings on 11/1(Thursday).

Not sure what they're seeing in regards to the 10% hatched. Looks like a linear mess with all that convergence coupled and SMVs being parallel to the CF. Seem to be banking on prefrontal storms, but even then, the environment really isnt that good.

Thick, low clouds this morning. My favorite.

The blob ruins severe season. Let's compromise and get rid of it by the end of February.

An addendum to the above post, the shedding of the robust outer bands over the past few hours is likely helping the storm and heralding further intensification. Allowing the storm to further consolidate itself and concentrate all of its energy in the very compact core. Yet another thing I've seen very intense storms do as they intensify, and I can easily see why. Having too much going on outside the core probably messes with angular momentum, slowing the circulation and preventing the storm from reaching those higher intensities as easily as it would without them.

I'd say this is probably nearing Cat 5 intensity at this point. I personally think it's probably 135kts or so at the moment. This core configuration is one very intense cyclones possess and I've seen similar satellite presentations achieve 150+kts. (I'd say Cyclone Winston in the South Pac is a decent example) -75*C all the way around the eye as it continues to warm and clear out. Just seems this sort of presentation is almost always found to have winds in excess of 130kts at a minimum.

This blows the Charley video out of the water. (No pun intended). Hands down the worst eyewall footage I’ve ever seen.

First flakes here in CR. Just flurries and not accumulating, but I’ll take it!

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSQuadCities/status/1050778822948339712

Looks like there's a real chance for some snow around here monday night. Every model is doing it. Looks like a typical october snow, where evap cooling is the rule of the day. Shouldn't amount to much, but this is a solid shot at first flakes. Apparently there were flurries around early this morning to our east, but I didnt see any.

It's okay, I thought it was funny.

Thick skull too apparently

I’m talking in the grand scheme of things. There’s definitely 2 camps on Twitter.