hlcater

Yea pretty big run of the FV3. Gotta wait for the Kuchera.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

Ukie looks south and suppressed.

There's a pretty monstrous area of 8"+ on the 00z GFS. Came in more juiced and stronger all around. Big broad stripe across pretty much the whole sub. Gonna be a lot of happy people with that run. EDIT: Pic added.

DVN is pretty bullish, already featuring categorical probs for the entire CWA for Friday night. Friday/Saturday... This period represents a potential stronger system and more impactful winter weather, as energy diving south from Canada attempts to phase with energy in strong southern stream jet. While confidence is increasing that the area will be impacted by a round of wintry precipitation, it remains low on timing/track and subsequent precipitation amounts/type. Northern energy looks to dislodge a large chunk of Arctic air sending it southward. This will aid in enhancement of the baroclinicity/ thermal gradient, which coupled with strong dynamics (left exit region) should be favorable for strong frontal circulation and FGen forcing. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see models trend stronger and subsequently wetter with this system. Bottom line for now... Confidence is increasing on a storm system to impact the area Friday PM into Saturday with accumulating snow, and a chance for a wintry mix mainly south. Low confidence exists on any amounts and location. Still a lot of details that need to get resolved, but anyone planning travel late this week and weekend will need to stay tuned on this potential winter storm.

I don’t have the lake and I’m feeling really good about a decent snow from this system. Probably not a huge storm, but in almost every scenario, Iowa sees snow. If the southern stream wave misses us, the stronger Thursday night wave does. Kind of like our version of a failsafe

Yea no matter how models handle this one, much of Iowa seems to receive some amount of snow. It’s almost a lock in that it does, indeed, snow. How much is a different story lol.

Yea I just saw that. As the system matures, areas further south and east have better wind potential as the 850s there look to be 30-40kts 12 hours after that sounding was pulled. Even Iowa has fairly decent wind potential after the storm departs as the high presses in. Not nearly a B-word, but probably advisory criteria just for blowing snow.

I haven't seen much talk of ratios on here yet, and perhaps it's still too early to discuss one of the finer details, but given the overall setup and the strong artic high that slides in after, this system seems to have a pretty good shot of some higher than 10:1 ratios, especially with northern and western extent. Using the GFS(not because I think it is correct, but because it is easy to access and the players on the field are more or less the same across all models). 850s of -8*C to -14*C could yield ratios possibly approaching 15:1 for the northern 2/3rds of the primary area of snow. Furthermore, the DGZ is fairly large and has almost no wind throughout per the GFS's solution. This seems kinda unusual to me, but what do I know. The lack of any significant speed max below 850mb makes me question the wind gust potential of this system as well. If we were looking for the B-word, I'd personally like to see at least 40kts at 850mb, not 10kts. Either way, this is a different animal from our last few storms where we struggled to reach 10:1. Sounding is from SE IA at 06z.

FV3 is also kind of a turd until it gets to the east coast.

It certainly doesn’t look further north than the 12z runs on MSLP

One of those long range forecasting websites that think things like the LRC and the BSR are great forecasting tools...

This setup reminds me very much of GHD 2015 with perhaps a bit more wind potential.

So did I. My initial call was under an inch and my adjusted call was 2.5”. Lol - epic failure.

GFS has a progressive bias, I’m more inclined to believe the GGEM is closer to the right idea.

There’s been an area of enhanced returns over CR/Linn for several hours and it hasn’t moved. I just measured 4.5”.

Reports of over a foot across parts of southern Iowa, which is double what was expected by the NWS. I had 3.4" at 2:15 so making it to 4" should be easy. I for one thought the dry air would win out at least early on as it seems dry air is often undermodeled and not overmodeled like it was this time around.

I remember when <1" seemed like a legitimate call(far north side of CR) for my area 2 days ago. I'm gonna adjust that to 2.5".

Just for the record, the FV3 has HIGHs in the -20s across the western sub in 13 days...

Not sure how much of a capacity that has to go north since nearly every model has a 1035-1040mb high pressing down from Canada. Feels so weird to have such a warm winter and yet have all these opportunities miss to the south.

Euro just came in and added significantly more QPF on the northern side of the system. Would probably give CR 4-5" as ratios would probably be ever so slightly higher than 10:1. Though there isn't a lot of forcing out here on soundings so flake size is probably gonna suck like Hoosier was alluding to.

But of course. Linn County always seems to be gradient city. Weather.us loaded and shows a modest tick north out in IA. CR gets ~0.30 on their map at CID. The trend with the Euro has been to get the higher QPF farther into IA, but also sharpen the gradient at the same time.

Looks like a very slight tick north at my first glance. Still no QPF loaded on my end.

What about US 30 corridor? Less than 12z(which had 0.25QPF along 30 in E IA)?

It almost always is more robust than expected. I'm expecting <1" at my location on the far north side.