hlcater

I do think this setup has the potential to be pretty clean. Certainly cleaner than 11/17 ended up verifying as. This doesn't mean this setup is superior to 11/17(because it isnt) but as far as storms themselves go, I think they're gonna be more isolated. The only things I'm worried about from a setup perspective are the critical angles/linear hodographs(see below) and the fairly limited residence time storms will have on the axis of best parameters before flying out of the warm sector at light speed. Storms, especially those at the triple point, may only have 2 hours or so before they go stable. With all this being said, even some small modification to the 0-3km hodograph yields pretty big changes and a much higher caliber of a setup. Whether or not this can be successfully chased remains to be seen.

The NAM is actually the worst model in the suite right now. I think the globals(particularly the UK) are painting a better setup. The primary difference between them and the NAM is the fact that the NAM is significantly faster

Quite a signal coming in from the UKie. Has had something similar for 3 or 4 runs now.

Iowa has closed all schools for 4 weeks per Kim Reynolds.

SARS-CoV-2(the virus itself) is susceptible to UV light just like all coronaviruses are. So I’m optimistic that once we get to may, this thing will be winding down. Heres a few links that I really like and are extraordinarily useful Fairly in depth and comprehensive synopsis of what this virus actually is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ ArcGIS dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Graphs and growth curves for certain countries: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Needless to say im disappointed in the amount of media catalyzed hype and panic buying that I’ve seen on twitter and elsewhere. Namely a certain joe rogan podcast with 6M views that was an absolute crime and is the equivalent of a weenie freaking out over a 384hr GFS kuchera map. But I think moving universities online and closing large public gatherings makes sense and is a necessary step to flatten the curve and prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed like it was in Italy and China.

So... Apparently, its been 47 YEARS since CID last measured 12" of snow. I measured 12" in 2008, but apparently the airport did not. Absolutely astonishing how hard a measly 12" is around here. http://www.midwestweathercenter.com/nstew-blog/2020/2/28/missing-the-big-one-streaks-without-a-big-snow-storm

Looks like we will. +NAO/AO looks to remain through at least the first half of March highly unlike the previous several years where we just couldn't shake -AO/NAO. The lack of an SSW this year also helps.

Can someone inject whatever substance the 00z GFS is on straight into my veins?

Rainer

1337 tornadoes and the first high risk will be on 4/20.

Might squeeze some dixie severe out of that.

Looks like yet another 2010s december for the trash bin. Yippee1

where we can have split flow in April to maximize suffering.

Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/

It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.

the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me

What’s most surprising to me is all that water.

I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

the thread that never dies

Tomorrow looks decent, but I think wednesday looks likely to grow upscale into an MCS rather quickly.

That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.

Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900