ma blizzard
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Everything posted by ma blizzard
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mostly rain / sleet now in metro west .. mby in Shrewsbury at about 420' got ~3" of slush. Driving around looks like above ~600' accumulations picked up. Took a weenie drive to the highest spot in town at ~750' and look like easy 5"-6" up there with roads still slushy.
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only about 420' ...
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just flipped to all snow in Shrewsbury
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looking at the 18z NAM (for example), you can see drier air getting advected in from the east as the low lvl centers begin to ramp up / tighten. Can see this on the radar a little bit too as the precip hasn't been able to advance much past a TAN - BOS - LWM axis. Probably why the sleet is over-performing right now haha
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21z RAP was run out of my basement ... obliterates ORH county
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we pray the 12z Euro resembles the 6z run .. Looking at the 6z run again - still can't get over how obscene that solution was
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we go back to ORH for this one
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obligatory:
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1955
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never lol
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This time of year, the correlations to those indexes and weather are weaker. Wavelengths are shorter, easier to get those cut-offs and coastal bombs despite the teleconnections values. Also index value isn’t as important as rate of change.
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500 looked 4/97 esque
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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost
ma blizzard replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
Thank you for bringing this up .. the clown maps have been driving me crazy the past couple days for this reason haha -
5/18/2002 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2002/us0518.php
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convection and dealing with how the ULL behaves prob won’t be easy for the models to resolve .. def a convoluted setup.
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too bad there isn't a little more low lvl moisture, could have been a higher end squall event
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ORH 65 BOS 64 still more clouds than sun in metrowest unfortunately edit: sat looks good rest of the afternoon, lets go!
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back in metro west today, snow cover down to patches / grass in the sun torched areas and 3"-6" of concrete I can still walk on top of in the shadier spots
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@ORH_wxman @tamarack appreciate the detailed responses and info!
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after 2001, which years had the most snowpack going into April locally? 2007 and 2015 had pack into April but are there any other years up there? Too young to remember how ‘96 was before the April storms so could that be up there?
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ingredients aren’t really there for the true big dog eruptions (VEI 6/7) .. maybe they do a VEI6 like once every couple hundred years. anything larger prob has a return rate 10x that .. won’t have to worry about it going “boom” .. altho id love to see it happen. From a scientific perspective, would be very interesting to see the climatic impacts .. and some crazy weather.
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maybe 70-80 locally in the squalls? 60-70 is good place to start, can always adjust up
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its colder not too far off the ground and with good rates, maybe dynamic cooling gets you down to 33ish
