If that comes to fruition I woukd think that would qualify for the new Snow Squall Warnings. Although last I heard, NWS, at least locally, may not have the product ready until next month. I guess we’ll find out!
I think South Bend’s all-time record of -22 will be safe but just barely. Lake Michigan will play a role in moderating the temp just enough. It helps South Bend’s airport is on the northwest side of the city, closer to the lake. Wind chills around -40 on Wednesday will still be enough to shut down the county....and perhaps still cold enough on Thursday.
Measured about 1/16th of an inch of ice just now. Freezing rain started coming down at a moderate clip while I was outside. Temperature currently at 30.
Well now the last four runs of the HRRR have shown temps staying below freezing much longer than previously forecast resulting in more ice accumulation in Northern IN. This is the latest run. I still think this overdone as temperatures do get close to 30/31 with heavier rain resulting in less efficient ice accretion, however, if this trend continues it may become a nowcasting event with a serious possibility of some areas in Michiana seeing 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of ice.
Ha! The 12z HRRR really held on to that freezing rain over Northern IN for a long time. Not buying into those extreme amounts since it's just one run of one model showing this output but I couldn't help but share.
This is one of the trickier storms to track! I've been tracking as a hobby for years and I, like many forecasters in Northern Indiana, am not sure what will happen IMBY. I'm projected to be south of the fgen band and north of the deform band that develops near the low. It's uhhh...it's not great!
I grew up on the southeast side of the City of Elkhart. Occasionally we'd get a six inch lake-effect event but the big dogs were always west or northwest of me. I have lived in Central Illinois the last 7 winters and now I'm back in Mishawaka hoping to get a big LE event soon.
Moderate to heavy rain at times in South Bend/Mishawaka. Some ponding on roads and leaves down on roads make it slick in spots. That should be an interesting dynamic for roads when/if the snow starts overnight.
I was a little worried about being dry slotted here but last few runs of HRRR and RAP keep the dry slot filled in with rain changing to snow in full force by 7z or 8z. Snows pretty good for about 6 hours. I can certainly live with a high-end advisory level snow. Good luck to you folks in IL!