sbnwx85

Convection rebuilding nicely again in Wisconsin NW of Milwaukee.

Marginal risk szn. Microburst hit the St. Joe/Benton Harbor, MI area hard last night. https://wsbt.com/news/local/crews-working-on-restoring-power-from-thursday-night-storms Had a downpour IMBY...sorry, no video of that.

Same here. Radar estimates between 0.6" and 0.8" in my neck of the woods.

I had to work in the newsroom during the storm, but snapped this photo of the orange-tinted sky as the storm departed during sunset. I was lucky to keep my power. I saw winds around 50-60 mph with some pea-size hail.

Ninja'd by Hoosier. Little cell south of Valpo trying to get going.

Moderate risk incoming...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin...Northern Illinois...Southern Michigan Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131800Z - 132300Z SUMMARY...Ongoing complex of thunderstorms to bring torrential rainfall rates to parts of the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Areas of flash flooding are possible. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis continued to show a surface warm front inching north through the Midwest with increasingly unstable atmospheric profiles within the warm sector. Dew points are reaching the low 80s in parts of southern Illinois and 850mb moisture flux is increasing along and north of the front. The ongoing complex of thunderstorms associated with an MCV tracking into central Wisconsin will continue on an ESE trajectory this afternoon with convection forming along the strengthening MUCAPE gradient. MUCAPE will vary significantly by location, but range generally between 2,000-4,000 J/kg. PWs are also on the rise with values approaching 2.0" later this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis and short term forecasts suggest effective bulk vertical wind shear will increase to 50-60 knots and effective SRH values from 100-200 m2/s2 this afternoon. These values are very favorable for keeping ongoing convection organized. As low level inflow intersects the front, additional strengthening of the convection is possible, along with the potential for intensifying convection on the southwest flank of the complex. Some areas, notably north of Milwaukee, in southwest Michigan, and northern Indiana have dealt with measurable rainfall over the last week. Soils are closer to normal saturation-wise, but they still have picked up 200-400% of normal rainfall over the last week. Given rainfall rates with the previous convective cluster in Minnesota had already produced >2"/hr rates, and the atmosphere contains similar favorable parameters, the expectation is for max hourly rainfall rates to range between 2-3"/hr. Areas most susceptible to flash flooding are the areas that contain more sensitive soils from rainfall over the past week, as well as urbanized centers and poor drainage locations. FFGs in these areas are as low as 1-1.5"/hr, which does include areas between Milwaukee and Green Bay.

I'm surprised one hasn't been made yet.

I’ve been through plenty of monster MCS/derecho’s, and now that I’m an adult, the prospect of going through a heat wave without power for several days isn’t quite worth the fun of the storm. Don’t get old, kids.

I was living in Jacksonville, IL that year (about 40 minutes west of Springfield). That summer seemed to last forever. The heat and humidity were relentless. Thank goodness for the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac. I think it brought about the only severe weather that summer with some weak tornadoes.

First warning of the day: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 316 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Kane County in northeastern Illinois... * Until 400 PM CDT. * At 316 PM CDT, showers capable of producing tornadoes was located near Elburn, or near Campton Hills, moving north at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Elgin, Carpentersville, St. Charles, Algonquin, Huntley, Geneva, Campton Hills, South Elgin, Pingree Grove, Gilberts, West Dundee, Hampshire, Elburn, Barrington Hills, Sleepy Hollow, East Dundee, Wayne, Valley View and Lily Lake. This includes... Elgin Community College. Including the following interstate... I-90 between mile markers 45 and 56. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4207 8824 4207 8826 4188 8831 4188 8849 4215 8847 4215 8824 TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 186DEG 27KT 4190 8841

KSBN set a new daily record with 90 degrees for a high yesterday. Today's record is 88 and we're currently at 86. It's so warm I saw a squirrel fanning his nuts!

Picturesque. Hope it doesn't hit anything.

The snow looked quite lovely this morning…even if the calendar does read April 1st.

Nice little event.

4.4" reported north of South Bend. I guessed around 3.5" IMBY.

I've paid zero attention to this until this afternoon, but looking at the models (besides GFS) if everything goes perfectly, I think I could end up with 4" between the system and lake-effect. Would be decent haul for March.

A real nice month.

Woke up to 1.5" here this morning. We were not lucky enough to get to 2".

Radar looks horrible. Will be lucky to get two inches at this point. So far, a dusting. A DAB, if you will.

IWX issues Winter Weather Advisory for the entire CWA. 2 to 4 inches throughout the area by Friday morning.

cmon baby

Get ready Chicago peeps. Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Iowa southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 190207Z - 190500Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls should continue this evening approaching Chicagoland. Low visibility from blowing and heavy snow may impact travel. DISCUSSION...Snow has expanded in coverage and intensity along a fast-moving arctic front moving across far eastern IA, southern WI and northwest IL. Snow squall conditions have been reported at numerous observing sites over the last 30 minutes as the band has expanded. Driven partly by the strong frontal circulation and steep low-level lapse rates advecting ahead of the front from southern NE, the shallow convection may persist for several more hours despite cooling surface temperatures and a stabilizing boundary layer downstream. Current projections place the line into the Chicagoland area between 0300 and 0430z. If the line is able to continue, strong wind fields associated with a strengthening surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will be exacerbated by strong vertical momentum transport from the shallow convection. Isolated gusts to 50 kts will be possible along with moderate to heavy snowfall as the line moves southeast. The latest HRRR suggests the line will begin to weaken as it outruns the plume of steeper lapse rates from NE and IA. While uncertainty remains, some risk for travel impacts appears possible through northern IL for a few more hours. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 02/19/2022

Derecho season is here early.