sbnwx85

I've paid zero attention to this until this afternoon, but looking at the models (besides GFS) if everything goes perfectly, I think I could end up with 4" between the system and lake-effect. Would be decent haul for March.

A real nice month.

Woke up to 1.5" here this morning. We were not lucky enough to get to 2".

Radar looks horrible. Will be lucky to get two inches at this point. So far, a dusting. A DAB, if you will.

IWX issues Winter Weather Advisory for the entire CWA. 2 to 4 inches throughout the area by Friday morning.

cmon baby

Get ready Chicago peeps. Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Iowa southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 190207Z - 190500Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls should continue this evening approaching Chicagoland. Low visibility from blowing and heavy snow may impact travel. DISCUSSION...Snow has expanded in coverage and intensity along a fast-moving arctic front moving across far eastern IA, southern WI and northwest IL. Snow squall conditions have been reported at numerous observing sites over the last 30 minutes as the band has expanded. Driven partly by the strong frontal circulation and steep low-level lapse rates advecting ahead of the front from southern NE, the shallow convection may persist for several more hours despite cooling surface temperatures and a stabilizing boundary layer downstream. Current projections place the line into the Chicagoland area between 0300 and 0430z. If the line is able to continue, strong wind fields associated with a strengthening surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will be exacerbated by strong vertical momentum transport from the shallow convection. Isolated gusts to 50 kts will be possible along with moderate to heavy snowfall as the line moves southeast. The latest HRRR suggests the line will begin to weaken as it outruns the plume of steeper lapse rates from NE and IA. While uncertainty remains, some risk for travel impacts appears possible through northern IL for a few more hours. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 02/19/2022

Derecho season is here early.

Get a gust up to 58 mph and you'd technically have a severe thunderstorm up there.

Hard to measure due to the wind and a layer of solid crap/slush underneath the snow, but gonna go with 6”. Very unofficial and high end.

Looks like high-ratio snow in the death band, too. Reminds me of lake-effect in how fluffy it is.

Fantastic.

Death band incoming. I'll be outside playing.

Somewhere around 4.3" so far in the grass here at work. A nice burst has developed just to the west and moving in. Hoping the death band holds together.

Dry slot is gonna knock on the door here but should (hopefully) stay just to my south. Modeling not handling that aspect of the system well.

Rippin fatties.

I wish I was as cool as that kid. But that is my tv station's/employer's weather camera across the street from where I work.

I was seriously concerned when many of the 00z models showed a miss just to my south. Models corrected back NW overnight. Also... Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Areas affected...portions of far northern Indiana into far southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 171912Z - 180015Z SUMMARY...Wintry mixed precipitation is underway in proximity to the Indiana/Michigan border. A gradual transition to moderate/heavy snow is expected this afternoon. An instance or two of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates is possible in the stronger precipitation bands. DISCUSSION...As the ill-defined 850 mb cyclone across central IL/IN continues to propagate northeast through the afternoon, 850-700 mb WAA will continue to transport rich moisture and sustain the moderate to heavy wintry precipitation that is underway across northern parts of the Ohio Valley. KLOT and KIWX dual-polarimatric radar indicate liquid precipitation and sleet falling along the IL/IN border. However, this sleet to snow transition zone is shifting southeast in tandem with 925 mb CAA which is ushering in sub-freezing temperatures per 18Z mesoanalysis and supported by 18Z RAP forecast soundings. With a near-saturated, sub-freezing troposphere, the transition from wintry mixed precipitation to snow is expected to continue through the afternoon. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur in heavier portions of the precipitation bands given near-saturation in the -12 to -17C dendritic growth zone. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 02/17/2022

Ripping now. Radar looks great. Going to be a good event. Edit: Funny how I don't feel fully confident until the event has literally begun.

Switched over to snow now. Coming down pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Pouring freezing rain and sleet. Temp is right at 32 so not much accretion but the sleet mixing in is making sidewalks and parking lots slick.

Getting ready for some sleet/freezing rain to begin shortly. Gonna try to get to work before it starts.

Updated mood: