sbnwx85

Lake effect band has come ashore in St. Joseph, MI.

Latest AFD from IWX: Current expectations are for decent inland penetration of banding tonight given strong northerly flow connected in with long axis of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. With that said, hard to say if/where banding will hold in for a decent time for counties just south and east of the Winter Storm Warning (Elkhart/Kosciusko/Marshall/Fulton IN/Starke). Reduced visibilities, cold sfc temps, and additional accums will likely allow at least advisory level impacts to persist beyond the current 05z expiration in these counties. An upgrade to warning cannot be ruled out in Marshall/Starke/Elkhart counties if the southern end of more dominant band settles in for a time. Much higher confidence for additional 6" plus snow amounts and intense 1-2" snowfall rates in areas currently under a Winter Storm Warning. Latest guidance continues to suggest Berrien, far western Cass MI and St Joseph IN in line for longest duration in intense lake plume where localized totals will likely exceed a foot. Winds will also pick up on the western fringe which could create some blowing/drifting.

About 3" here. Now for the lake effect to set up. Expecting another 4 to 6 IMBY tonight. Possibly more if the band becomes stationary overhead. I'll post those updates and pictures in the lake effect thread. Absolutely fantastic for mid-November.

Best snows coming down now here. About 1.3 inches so far. The ducks aren’t thrilled.

HRRR showing poundtown for Berrien Co, MI and St. Joseph County, IN overnight. Single band that wobbles for about 12 hours.

Gimme gimme gimme!

A fun graphical interpretation of the event early next week from the TV station I work at.

In light of what appears to be a potentially impressive lake effect event in parts of the Great Lakes early next week I figured now is a good time to start up the region's lake effect thread for the winter. IWX hinting at the event beginning Monday.

Normally I love lake enhancement on this side of the lake in Indiana, but, as modeled, the wind off the "warm" lake keeps precip as rain here in South Bend. Oof. Oh well, it is October after all. I'll enjoy my rain/snow mix.

Obligatory "It's nice to have something to track" comment.

First MD of the event is out: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1717.html

I haven't ever started a new thread before so a mod can feel free to change something if needed. This has been discussed in the short/medium range severe thread but it's not everyday we get a 10% hatched TOR threat from SPC in this region...especially in August. There's a chance this becomes an impressive, if not small, regional outbreak so let's get the party started. Discussion also mentions possible upgrade to moderate risk.

This was about 20 minutes ago in Mishawaka, IN. Didn’t measure but I would eyeball about a half inch on the car. Roads are a bit slick but not bad. For April 27th...this is really something to see.

WSW for LOT's northern tier of counties.

What was the look for Northern IN? I was going to go to the White Sox game Saturday night but, uh, nah.

Since it's mid-April and I'm ready for 70 degree weather, I'm happy to see pictures of snow while looking at 37 and rain IMBY. Enjoy the snow...I guess?

Sun starting to peak out a little more often here. Although I'll be sandwiched between the best forcing today. I heard some rumbles of thunder last night so I'm happy.

South Bend at -6 at midnight. Won't break the max high record of -8. If only we were on Central Time!

Remarkable lake-effect event ongoing just to my north. Sunshine with some clouds mixed in here. Near blizzard conditions continue just 15 miles to my north.

Some public and private entities are beginning to announce they'll be closed Wednesday and Thursday. St. Joseph County, IN offices will be closed both days. The University of Notre Dame will be closed from Tuesday 6pm until Thursday afternoon. Public schools should start announcing closures tomorrow. My local tv station calling for a low of -24 on Thursday morning which would break the all-time record in South Bend. (side note: high of 48 next Monday lol)

New P&C forecast from IWX has me at 6 to 11 inches. WWA wording indicates 5 to 8 inches. Edit: Looking through forecasts around me IWX clearly thinking lake-enhancement/lake-effect will up totals closer to LM. Can't say I disagree.

Usually I like my PDS watches to be of the tornado variety but I'd be okay with a PDS Wind Chill Watch/Warning.

The all-time coldest max temp ever recorded in South Bend is -8 in 1899. I think that record will be shattered.

GRR should already have warnings up in its southern most counties but GRR apparently is using different warning criteria than the rest of the country these days.