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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you
  2. snowman19
    We’ve been hearing about SOI crashes and cold, snowy patterns on the way for months, 3 months in a row to be exact. This is the boy who cried wolf now. The pattern looks real bad right through late February. FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
  3. snowman19
    The pattern took a long term turn for the worst on Thanksgiving week, right after the 11/15 storm. By the last week of November you saw the PAC jet and the Pacific overall was going to be a real big problem and it hasn’t quit since. Looks like the AO is going to go super positive starting next week. That’s probably going to be the nail in the coffin for the rest of February, next week is already mid month
  4. snowman19
    Extremely unlikely. Total 180 degree different pattern, like not even close to last year’s pattern progression at this point in time.
  5. snowman19
    Yep. “Not good” is an understatement. Kinda hard to force secondary coastal redevelopment with zero blocking in the Atlantic
  6. snowman19
    The EPO isn’t going to help this one. AO going very strongly positive, strong positive NAO, no Atlantic blocking to be had, strongly negative PNA. This has cutter written all over it. All of next week is an absolutely horrible setup for a snowstorm in our area
  7. snowman19
    If it amps at all, it’s cutting, period. Look at what’s happened all winter long
  8. snowman19
    Forget even the -PNA, there is no -NAO block AGAIN, none. How many times are the same people going to fall for this and hype this winter?? Same song and dance for months now
  9. snowman19
    It would hold more credibility if you hadn’t been calling for snowstorms for the past 3 months, literally since late November you’ve been saying the same thing. 11/15/18 - today, New York City has recorded just over an inch of snow, total
  10. snowman19
    We’ve seen this movie before. Always a week+ away. The op Euro is the only one showing it
  11. snowman19
    The other models cut too, we await the Euro
  12. snowman19
    Look at the WPO, that’s what has been driving the raging PAC jet. It’s strong ++WPO and getting stronger throughout the period
  13. snowman19
    There hasn’t been any semblance of Atlantic blocking since November nor does it look like any will be forming through mid month and beyond
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    Also, looks like the AO is going positive, the SSW did not workout as planned. From Dr. Butler:
  16. snowman19
    The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out:
  17. snowman19
    HM just pointed it out but the real problem has been the raging ++WPO all winter long. It’s the reason the PAC jet has been an unrelenting firehose
  18. snowman19
    You also notice the extreme -NAO bias it has had in the long range all winter? It keeps showing phantom -NAO’s that never advance forward in time. It’s done a terrible job on the Atlantic side. We haven’t been able to buy a -NAO block
  19. snowman19
    We’ve seen this show before a bunch of times this winter from the EPS, it’s one run so far. Let’s see if it actually holds or not this time and advances forward. I’m not holding my breath
  20. snowman19
    The FV3 sucks, horrible model. It’s honestly worse than the old GFS. And that map counts sleet and freezing rain as snow
  21. snowman19
    The CanSIPS may not have been so crazy. The model runs last night are ugly right past mid February
  22. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS has a huge RNA/-PNA pattern for February
  23. snowman19
    Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened
  24. snowman19
    We’ll see what happens post 2/15 but up to that point it does not look good
  25. snowman19
    The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month
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