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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The next “threat” to watch become all rain for NYC…..
  2. snowman19
    Good luck
  3. snowman19
    IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking
  4. snowman19
    RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight
  5. snowman19
    Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup
  6. snowman19
    It most likely will, however there is going to be a limit to how far north it bumps. You want to be south of 287 for this one
  7. snowman19
    Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC
  8. snowman19
    Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it
  9. snowman19
    I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly
  10. snowman19
    If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO
  11. snowman19
    I have a feeling Fri night/Sat morning trends north tomorrow, strengthens and drops plowable snow. Finally an event that will actually have high ratios and most likely impressive mid and upper level dynamics and likely an impressive heavy snow band with it. The fact that the RGEM is amped is a red flag it’s dropping over 2 inches at just 10:1 ratios
  12. snowman19
    Support is definitely growing for a warm early March and that would fit strong El Niño climo too…..past events had a warm to very warm early-mid March
  13. snowman19
    Don’t worry. Brooklynwx will be here soon posting 10 different maps showing how an epic, historic, perfect, mind blowing, textbook KU pattern with true arctic cold and massive blocking from the equator to the North Pole is coming for us in March
  14. snowman19
    I got this storm all wrong. Definitely one of the most challenging storms I’ve ever seen since I’ve been a weather hobbyist. Never seen the models this bad, this close in. But I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong. Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. It was impressive and really a big surprise is what has been a complete dud of a winter until today….
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
    NYC is very likely fine, north of there? Not so much
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  19. snowman19
    I don’t know what’s going to happen now. I’ll wait to see what 6z and 12z do but I still don’t think 10:1 ratios are going to work regardless. There have obviously been wholesale changes since 12z no denying that
  20. snowman19
    After how bad the NAM was with the last storm (way too cold) why are people taking it seriously? The HRRR and GFS were equally as bad, they had areas that got all rain getting snow even as the event started. They even had my area getting a few of inches of snow and I didn’t see so much as a dusting. This is a classic SWFE, they almost always move north in the last 12 hours, not south and models almost always underestimate the mid-level warming in these. Rain to snow events as a general rule tend to underperform, especially with upper 40’s the day before going into it. Surface temps are going to be above freezing and ratios are going to be less than 10:1. I would wait until the 0z runs tonight and the 6z runs tomorrow morning before I spike the football
  21. snowman19
    This thread describes this winter and where we are heading from now into March to a tee. Good read:
  22. snowman19
    It has just begun its coming adjustments north from the ridiculous suppressed solution it had along with the NAM and CMC at 12z. The UKMET was way too suppressed as well
  23. snowman19
    It was way closer to reality than what a lot of the models were showing closer to the city and the city itself
  24. snowman19
    I don’t think it ever becomes a warning south of Orange, Sussex and Putnam counties
  25. snowman19
    When I gave my opinion on this storm, I was accused of trolling, which I wasn’t. This setup has sucked for a week and it still does and I absolutely believe it’s going to trend north even further between now and Monday morning. IMO this is not going to be a major snowstorm south of I-84. Here’s what Earthlight has to say:
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