snowman19

The GFS is a huge outlier, not even going to bother talking about the UKMET, which is a really horrible model and its “snow” maps are severely overdone and totally inaccurate, it’s not snow, it’s showing sleet as snow. That aside, the ICON, CMC, Euro, EPS, RGEM, NAM all do not have this as a snow event. All their outputs show zero snow in the metro area and have it completely as a sleet and freezing rain event mainly north and west of NYC

The Ukie is absolutely horrible. It did the worst out of every model with the last storm by far even right up to game time, run after run it wasn’t even close

Yes, a complete anomalous/fluke event can certainly happen, sure, but definitely not the norm and any snowfall in late March/April is gone the next day at our latitude

No, it started by mid-February

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy

The op bumped well north because the last solution was completely asinine. The Euro is nothing even close to what it used to be, it’s just another run of the mill at best model anymore….

That isn’t snow…that’s a 10:1 ratio “snowmap” counting sleet as snow. It’s grossly overdone and very inaccurate…like not even close and the Ukie is a God awful, horrible model. It busted so bad on this last storm it wasn’t even funny….

Funny how to certain people here the storms are always “trending” to a NYC metro area snowstorm without fail, every single time…..if it’s too far east, it’s “trending” west, too far west? it’s “trending” east, too far north? It’s “trending” south, too far south? It’s “trending” north…just as sure as the sun rises in the morning, you can predict exactly which way a particular storm is “trending” in their minds….

It’s the same day, couldn’t post before because my limit was up. Nice try and I like your new alter ego, you can change your name all you want I know who you really are lol

It’s coming :-)

I would not be surprised to see 2-4 inches total, especially west of 287. There is going to be subsidence that I think the models are still underdoing. The new 3K NAM is now showing a minimal snowfall NW of the city

The 3K NAM looks like it cut way back NW of the city

This is a very important point here for folks NW of NYC, just saw this tweet and he makes a very good point. The models may be overdoing snowfall NW of the city, they very often miss subsidence:

Are you worried about subsidence on the NW fringe of precip shield? (I.E. Orange, Rockland, Passaic, Bergen)? I know many times the models underestimate the subsidence on the NW fringe. IMO we are going to see subsidence issues on the west side of the heavy banding but I’ll defer to you

The most any model brings up to Rockland is 5 or 6 inches total at the very most, most are 4-5 inches. This includes all the new guidance (GFS, NAM 3K/12K, RGEM, HRDPS, CMC, Ukie, Euro, ICON). Honestly nothing has changed at all up this way since yesterday afternoon. This is an eastern Long Island and eastern New England snow blitz this time

Another run confirming this is not a big deal NW of NYC. Long Island and eastern NE get crushed however

This is close to a total non event for everyone NW of NYC (Orange, Rockland, Bergen, Passaic counties). It’s 1-3 inches total at best there. If you want big totals, they will be in LI and eastern NE IMO

The Euro definitely went east and it doesn’t look way better than the last run as some have posted

Did you see the Ukie yet? Someone just posted on Twitter that it’s a disaster, it’s not out of Pivotal weather yet

The CMC went east, I knew when I saw the RGEM it would. The Euro is probably next

Started running again…..the ICON is GFS like…

Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later

It isn’t too often that the twin forks, Montauk Point and Fishers Island stay all snow and places like Orange, Rockland, Passaic still get heavy snow out of it like the Euro is showing, that would be an extremely unusual storm should that actually happen

The Ukie is a big eastern LI, eastern NE hit. Almost nothing NW of NYC

I agree, I think this has very sharp cutoff/subsidence on the NW side written all over it. Still would not be surprised to ultimately see this an eastern LI/eastern NE bomb. Something like what the CMC just showed would not surprise me