EastonSN+

In this Storm makes no sense however I do like looking in that direction for storms that are going to change over for us as more snow for them would mean more snow for us LOL.

And I fully believe we will get back to clippers dropping South and get three to six four to eight snow storms at some point again. From 2000 to 2018 this board was actually discussing how the coastal hugger was completely extinct and Albany and inland was complaining that the coast always got snow. Well since 2017 the coastal hugger has become unextinct so I fully expect the same for clippers. In fact we have some clippers they have just been moisture starved which is odd considering the higher moisture content from the higher ocean temperatures. Also remember in that 30-year period of 1970 through 1999, 14 out of the 30 years were below 19 inches for Central Park. Almost 50%. As the weather always changes, at some point the fast flow will calm down and it'll change and maybe for the worst or better depending on other factors,but it will change. And a question I have is why is nobody analyzing the warmer temperatures in the Indian Ocean and just focusing on Indonesia? If Forky is correct and saying that warmer Waters circulate to the Western areas of our oceans (I mean it's true of curse), the same must hold true for the Indian Ocean which would increase the frequency and intensity of phases 1 and 2 which are colder for this region. It's sort of a balance if you will. However this ocean seems to be totally ignored. My mind is blown however on how well Ocean City Maryland has been doing since 2018, it's mind-boggling. My childhood vacation spot which is completely surrounded by water, one side the bay, one side the ocean and is a toaster bath with extreme humidity in the summertime.

I mean it can't last forever right. Looking at the CFS weeklies it aligns with the mjo progression through phases 1 and 2 which are colder than average. Then around mid March reward which is good for spring.

I do find the southeast ridge AO connection interesting, and Don's statistics showed it happened twice in the 30-year period while I already happened three times in the recent times. So there seems to be an uptick statistically. That being said I do not believe it is the southeast ridge in and of itself flexing otherwise we would not have suppressed tracks this often or Gulf Coast snow. I believe the southeast ridge is getting pumped up by more intense storms, which would make more sense as it would explain why we are storms don't fly north because of a pumping Southeast ridge, rather intensifying storm just pulls the line up. Obviously this would occur when there's an RNA. Another Factor is just looking at the statistical value of blocking does not tell the whole story. One has to look at where the blocking develops in addition to the strength. Remember this bad period only started in 2018/2019. A tiny snapshot in the overall picture.

I got four on the last one but only expecting a half inch at best on this one. All good though. I am happy when everybody on the board get snow.

I don't know to me what I've experienced the past 7 years is exactly what I experienced back in the 80s and 90s, and apparently the '70s were the same too. Yes it was a little colder but the same the storm tracks were exactly the same. Always cutter hugger suppressed over and over again. Whether or not it has to do with the southeast ridge linking up to the AO more often than that time frame, the results are the same. I don't want to upset the board and say that we're in a middle of a 30-year bad period for snowfall like that one was, however I was actually hopeful that the warmer temperatures would help eliminate the suppressed track and move everything a bit north (and more moisture-laden) but obviously that's not the case as DC, Ocean City Maryland, New Orleans, Kansas City, Tennessee are all doing fine while we endure suppression yet again. A positive would be that although temperatures are a little warmer than that time frame, we are a long long ways away from removing snow from our environment for obvious reasons. We will have a 1995-96 type winter again, a 2002 2003 again and so on and so on. It's just we're in a low snowfall period however where a lot of areas were losing out on snowfall during our time frame from 2000 to 2018 they are now reaping the benefits that are expense. Sharing the wealth LOL.

What model shows a cutter for the 20? I looked at the Canadian the GFS in the euro and not one of them is even close to a cutter. Remember a cutter goes to the Great lakes.

Happy the South and Southwest part of the forum are going to make up for the last event on this one good luck everyone.

The water should pile up in the Western Indian Ocean too if we're talking circulation which would enhance phases 1 and 2 of the mjo which are colder for us.

The linking of the southeast ridge has happened in the past per Don's stats I posted above. We had a trough to our East where the confluence was pushing down on the Southeast ridge and linking to the trough to the west of the southeast ridge which stopped it from linking.

Would be funny if we had a repeat of the Southern snow as well LOL. Rain verbatim for now.

In all fairness Don did pull stats which showed that although the frequency has increased, it has happened in the past.

Agreed it just throws me off as I saw a post saying what happened to what the ensembles were showing with the large snowfall amounts. Really it's not far off so it wasn't a failure.

At least they look pretty good for Central Park they had 11.5 on the mean in Central Park is at 4.1. let's see if they get close.

Might beat last blocking episode

The low pressure itself is actually a bit north it's just that the precept shield is a bit more condensed. Just noise.

Yeah if we do not just focus on snowfall average which was just 5 years and 30 years, then we see some positives just like we had a great month in 2022 and a great March in 2019. Also this year when looking back is going to look like another below average snowfall season, yeah we're going to have three below average temperature months as well as a lot of days of snow coverage. This winter will definitely be underrated.

What's crazy is Central Park might actually get close to the crazy high snow mean of 11.5 in on the ensembles that we we're all shocked about. It is already at 4.1 and will likely get a few more inches this week. If they reach 8 then the ensemble mean was not that off base.

Yeah this is why I don't think the issue is the water temperatures. The heat island effect does come into play for the city itself. I know I sound like a broken record at this point but Cold and dry warm and wet was the theme for 30 years from 1970 to 1999. This is why I'm tracking the average snowfall for that period Against the 2018 till now. As you stated earlier mother nature tends to repeat herself.

Ocean City Maryland is right on the water and they're doing great since 2018 and they're literally on the beach LOL.

You're in a great spot for this one!

It's going to be interesting to see how the next few years shake out. We thought the coastal hugger was extinct from 2000 through 2016. Suddenly one appeared March of 2017 and now we're getting a lot of coastal huggers so they became un extinct. We are getting clippers this year the problem is they've been moisture-starved. If your nephew hasn't already started your nephew should investigate 1955 through 1969 and see if we had clippers during that period. It could be cyclical as well.