EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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I knew the EURO was going to show this - Forky never got invested.
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What we don't want is the storm to over intensify like the EURO is showing. In December the "cutter" was so intense it killed the 3rd wave which was (and usually is) our big storm. Its fine if it cuts as long as it's not this intense. Basically, if it cuts we are ok moving forward in the period as long as the strength does not overwhelm the following wave.
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Blizzard of 1958 was floated as an analog. Not the bullseye here but would love to see something like that.
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Looks like another transfer idea with the low in the lakes. However, like the last storm, it can still be a snow event with the transfer timing. I mean, the last storm had thunder snow.
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Yeah that March/April was historic.
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That second storm gave me 10 inches of cement, knocked out power for three days and made a medium sized tree fall on my house. Don't want that again. If the track is right CPK can easily breach 10 inches.
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Yup. KUs are rare.
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This year. I posted the article earlier if you want to get all the dets.
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We want this to stay in phase 8 as long as possible. Phase 1 is warm in March.
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"Portland, Ore., received nearly a foot of snow in a single day in what proved to be its second-snowiest day in history. Mountainous areas of California experienced nearly unprecedented snowfall accumulations — more than 40 feet since the start of the season. At the airport in Flagstaff, Ariz., 11.6 feet have fallen this season, second only to the winter of 1948-49. Even Phoenix suburbs woke up on Thursday to a dusting of snow that covered cactuses and lush golf courses."
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Yeah don't get me wrong, we have a major signal for a KU event here. Hopefully it's the EURO doing it's over amped, keeping energy SW bias. Remember, Forky only comes out when a legit threat is on the table. Until he appears keep expectations in check.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-like-once-in-a-generation-former-noaa-chief-scientist-puts-recent-west-coast-snowfalls-in-historical-context-4f77ea6f
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Very possible outcome unfortunately. We did not see a lot of these this century, however were much more numerous in the 80s.
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Now if we are going to get the lowest snowfall record THIS is how it has to go. South Carolina with more snow!
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Temperature (°F) Max Average Min Max Temperature 71 51.19 32 Avg Temperature 59.29 43.94 28.24 Min Temperature 49 36.68 20
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Thanks Don. I would imagine that it would be hard to top 01/02 as I believe that March was well above average for temps that year.
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IMO it's a 50/50 shot. I can easily see DC Baltimore and Philly getting an event and end up with more snow than CPK. Suppression will be the issue when the good pattern gets established March 10 onwards
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I need another 50 mile jog south for coastal CT -
This map gets me so mad!!
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I am starting to see signs of a slightly positive PNA out there in the LR. Good to see the MJO staying in 8 for both ensemble suites.
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Thank you!!
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GEFS never moved from the 10th. EPS and GEPS still the 8th. We may get several small storms, couple moderate or one Large, the op runs are more entertaining at this point. Yes, we can strike out again like December too snow is never a guarantee, however this looks like the best window all season. We shall see how it shakes out. IMO it comes down to the RNA. Too strong and the look fades.
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GFS GEFS is later with the good period compared to GEPS and EPS. Let's hope........
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Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year!
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What's wrong with the GFS? The GEFS was always a couple days behind and while not showing the same KU potential, still shows a couple snow events (op) as well as a good pattern (GEFS). So having the GFS/GEFS as a floor is great IMO.
