EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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GEPS gets it pretty darn far.
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Kind of playing with fire with the SE Ridge there. GEPS completely obliterates the SE ridge to mid Florida. GEFS is the middle ground with the SE ridge just south of DC.
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That can be an extremely volatile setup. If the SE ridge is a little east then watch out.
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I think the larger issue is the preceding air mass. If we had an entrenched deep cold layer in advance we would easily get 3 to 6 before the changeover. In this case the cold barely gets in (and not that far south) before the storm arrives. Still a chance of 1 to 3 LI to 84. However, at this moment in time it could be less. Only time will tell.
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Will be interesting to see if this wave makes it to phase 7 by the 15th.
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I do not know if I have ever witnessed a setup like what is being shown. RNA ++AO and NAO with a monster -EPO keeping the SE ridge well south of us. Is the EPO extending so much that it's causing blocking in the AO domain (bootleg)?
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Not expecting more than 1 to 3 LI to 84. HOWEVER, November 2018 NAM and HRRR were showing 6 to 8 before the changeover during that Months SWFE even though all the globals had C to 2. Obviously that's an outlier, however shows that you are correct in it's important to keep an eye on the mesos to catch any surprises. Same positive surprise happened during the March 2011 SWFE.
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Here we go. GEFS and GEPS with a monster negative EPO.
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My big takeaway is the EURO did not go warmer.
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Went from 0.7 to 0.9 for NYC. Big dump for 84.
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Thanks. Looks on par with GEFS and GEPS. Both GEFS and GEPS have us on the cold side of the SE ridge. Assuming in the above we are below average temp wise as well?
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Yeah, I can see that too.
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SE ridge can't flex too much with the EPO as depicted. Obviously if the EPO is weaker than shown yes. However, even if the EPO is weaker cold air will come in behind any storm and allow for weak trailing wave action. If amped snow before the changeover. Speaking purely on the March pattern.
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I shall represent the south CT region in these battles. My guess is 1 to 3 from the coast to 84.
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IF this look holds it's gonna get real active. As of now we are on the cold side. Let's see how it pans out. Sorry I do not have the EPS.
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Yeah this is still looking like 1 to 3 LI to 84. Don't worry though GEFS and GEPS are advertising, as of this moment and could change, a real snowy look in March IMO. EPO so intense it keeps the SE ridge south around the mid Atlantic. At the same time the PNA goes slightly negative, allowing storms to come north with the general area being on the cold side.
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That is awesome. Is it available on their site?
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Who is dismissing it? It's part of the equation. I do not think it will score a coup against all the other models though. They will likely meet somewhere in the middle.
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Borrowed from MA forum. GEFS for Friday.
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Ha no. I love hot weather and Snow. If it could snow in Florida I would be there.
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The GEM and the EURO have been trending slightly south last couple of runs. GFS has bumped slightly north last couple runs. They will probably keep trending till they are somewhat close.
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Yup a little north and a little amped from 12 Z. They are moving towards consensus IMO.
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It nudged a tad north and warmer. Just like EURO and CMC nudged a tad south earlier. Consensus is to be realized.
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GFS coming in a LITTLE north and warmer. CMC and EURO came in a bit south and cooler earlier. Figure some sort of compromise. Still first guess 1 to 3 LI to 84. 3 to 6 north of 84.
