EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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The MJO may finally head into phase 8 at the largest amplitude of the year which can finally lessen the grip of the RNA. EURO is much quicker than the GEFS so I hope it's correct. GEFS is after the 10th. Posted the ECMWF above.
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Yeah here in CT was white rain for hours. Close.
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Hey Chuck you need to post in this forum more often. Been reading your posts for years you notice these things.
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EURO has a quicker loop into 8 (if some are concerned about mid March temps).
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Chuck seems to be on to what I have been noticing. Is this the IO warming that is causing this? Does anyone know or have a theory on the catalyst? This may be the recent NAO SE ridge linkage answer. It's more the EPO RNA intensity than Atlantic water temps. If you have a full latitude trough in the west guess what, there is no way you can avoid a ridge linking to the NAO.
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PNA and NAO in lock step again. Still no idea as to why for two years they are completely sinked.
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95/96, 02/03, 10/11, 13/14 and 17/18 were great years for CT. 12/13 was ok with one historic storm.
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GFS followed EURO
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Yeah I posted the total snowfall map earlier, which was a perfect reflection of a seasonal snowfall map from the 80s. Snow north and south of us.
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I just posted a quote from Storm Chaser Chuck on his view that there is a +EPO/-PNA/-NAO correlation and that it's hard to snow in that setup. I think it's honestly a strong coupled La Nina forcing the Aleutian ridge and subsequent downstream effect. I bet this setup leads to "south based" NAOs and failed NAOs. We saw the effect in December. We get to see the effects during shorter wavelengths now.
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I mean with a deep RNA it will be tough. That coupled with the fact that this year has been northern stream dominate argues against this solution. However it would be funny if CPK had a ratter while DC had an average snowfall season.
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This would hurt and be fitting for this year.
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Interesting.
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Analogs are ok for a loose comparison. Winters are like snowflakes they will never be identical. Although 01/02 and this year are closer than any 2 winters I can remember. That year had a failed NAO as well.
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Explain? How deep was the RNA and how strong was the NAO? Also was there an Aleutian ridge? Was the enso the same?
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In the end, I want to see a south based block when the RNA is weak or neutral more than once. I think there is a connection between deep RNAs and south based Blocking.
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What we need to track is the connection between deep RNA and NAO failures and position. Last year was a great example, deep RNA and south based Blocking, the METS call the NAO bootleg and an atmosphereic furnace and not a true block.
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If it was SST driven the 2021 standard blocking would have been south too but it was not.
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And deep RNAs result in NAO failures.
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I am not sold that the SSTs are static. We have to wait a few years to see if they cycle out like El Nino las nina. NOBODY knows now.
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Yeah but haven't we had strong RNAs without an NAO? Or has every strong RNA had an NAO? Have we ever had a very strong RNA with a NORTH based blocks?
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I think it's likely a result of a strong RNA. I.e. when an RNA is intense the downstream effect is a south based NAO. When the RNA is weak or obviously positive, it's a north based block. Not concerned as we JUST had a standard block just two years ago so they are not gone.
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Right, however why has it been all year that the NAO appears a couple days following the RNA? Last December too. And when that happens we fail. There HAS to be a connection it cannot be random.
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I would love to find out the reasoning behind the above. The NAO follows the PNA by a couple days. Can this really be coincidence? Can't be. The NAO follows the RNA like a puppy dog
