Jump to content

EastonSN+

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,917

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Yeah. Other than temps it matters where the precip comes in from. Some of the models are further south with the initial heavier precip which is important.
  2. EastonSN+
    Yeah CPK and LI will need higher rates to compensate for temps. Westchester and Fairfield counties can get away with weaker sauce.
  3. EastonSN+
    I do see your point. I think the only way to manage such a large area like NYC is to have an official measurement in all Burroughs and average in addition to each airports individual records. Bronx has a large portion of NYCs population and it's never truly represented in the city's measurement.
  4. EastonSN+
    We NEED a slight RNA and SER to avoid suppression. This looks pretty good for snow.
  5. EastonSN+
    Yeah definitely colder on the GFS
  6. EastonSN+
    The NAM shows how the higher intensities lead to snow over lighter precip and drizzle.
  7. EastonSN+
    The ensembles connect the SER to the NAO approximately the same time as the system is expected to occur. Wouldn't this lead to more of a GFS outcome? I don't want a rain event however trying to learn.
  8. EastonSN+
  9. EastonSN+
    What are your thoughts on this one? What worries me is this is the timeframe that the ensembles link the SER to the NAO. Given that I would think that the GFS is more right UNLESS the ensembles are in incorrect. I hope the EURO is right.
  10. EastonSN+
    Does anyone have the EURO Kutchera?
  11. EastonSN+
    With the way mid March looks, I think the chance of breaking the record is low.
  12. EastonSN+
  13. EastonSN+
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah down to a half inch for CPK. So far GFS and GEM went a bit colder while the UKMET went warmer. I think the NWS is on target with their snowfall map.
  15. EastonSN+
    Massive difference between the GFS and GEM. GEM is a snow event for Virginia and NC.
  16. EastonSN+
    So although the GEM went a bit colder, like the GFS it also slightly cut the snow totals due to less intensity.
  17. EastonSN+
    It's crazy how different the GFS and GEM are for the 3/4 event. GFS goes right over us with rain while the GEM gives Virginia and NC snow. If I had to bet I would say the GFS is correct as this is the time the SER connects with the NAO. We shall see.
  18. EastonSN+
    Yeah I learned about it from TIP in the NE forum. RNA just means -PNA.
  19. EastonSN+
    Just did a comparison. Colder than 0z.
  20. EastonSN+
    I should add this is highly dependent on the RNA. If it stays be below -1sd then the target period can end up a bust. RNA driving the bus (a factor of the Aleutian ridge due to la Nina).
  21. EastonSN+
    The EPS is warmer with the warmup and colder with the target period. The warmup with be 2 to 5 days while the Target period is 7 plus days.
  22. EastonSN+
    Oh yeah.
  23. EastonSN+
  24. EastonSN+
    Yeah just loaded about the same temps. 12z stays snow longer but ends up with slightly less snow due to a drop in intensity.
  25. EastonSN+
    I think the soundings fail to see the temporary temp drop during increase in intensity. For CPK will be highly dependent on the rates rather than colld air in place.
×
×
  • Create New...