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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    GFS close too.
  2. EastonSN+
    I had 5.1. NYC only needs 0.7 to avoid futility
  3. EastonSN+
    We just had a snow storm. So maybe our luck has changed
  4. EastonSN+
  5. EastonSN+
  6. EastonSN+
    So close on the CMC.
  7. EastonSN+
    19/20 is a good example of how a colder air mass in place is so important. Arctic air mass in place and similar track. Low to buffalo and CPK still received 4.5 inches with the same track.
  8. EastonSN+
    Not bad at all. Hopefully ticks south a bit further.
  9. EastonSN+
    Yup. Biggest concern as you pointed out is suppression.
  10. EastonSN+
    Also to keep the KU thoughts in perspective as well, we only had 5 in 30 years from 1970 through 1999.
  11. EastonSN+
    KU ingredients: MJO in high amplitude phase 8. Check Blocking in place and decaying. Check Rising PNA. Check Dropping EPO. Check Biggest question mark. PNA. We want it to rise at a quicker pace for a KU. Being in Negative first is great. The rise has to be quick enough. As it has been said, only 1 out of every 10 systems with the earmarks of a KU actually occured. So 10% chance here to keep everything in perspective.
  12. EastonSN+
    Thanks for this. Still do not know if 1 is good or not in March lol. However WOW in 8!
  13. EastonSN+
    Yeah I mean 0.7 inches is very doable in CPK. Would not take much at all to accomplish. However WOW on the pattern coming up. Now we have to be cautious as we know a good pattern does not guarantee that success is realized, however we can't strike out twice in one season can we?
  14. EastonSN+
    The ensembles show two distinct snowfall patterns coming up. Approx the 7th we have the NAO keeping heights lowered in our area with a ridge JUST to our west. Think their past storm (mixing in buffalo snow in CPK). Then just 3 to 4 days later we get a spike in PNA resulting in an east coast trough. How long this lasts I do not know but this timeframe has MAJOR potential. Our risk will be suppression.
  15. EastonSN+
    IF the GFS has the correct idea on the next storm, CPK rises out of futility. 0.7 for CPK. Obviously we need another small tick SW to create a buffer.
  16. EastonSN+
    Apologies if I am being obtuse, however it looks like the entire pattern shifts from an RNA/blocking pattern to a -EPO, +PNA pattern with an east coast trough. Do you see the same?
  17. EastonSN+
    Agreed but only 0.7 needed to avoid futility.
  18. EastonSN+
    Definitely a small tick south on the GEFS. Maybe following the op at this point.
  19. EastonSN+
    GFS can south a tad. A little front end snow (this is snow depth map). Can CPK get 0.7 inches to avoid the snowfall futility record?
  20. EastonSN+
    Yeah not good for DC.
  21. EastonSN+
    Good news for those that were fearing "getting pushed back". The good look on the GEFs and GEPS have moved UP. Looks good starting March 8.
  22. EastonSN+
    Also, all three ensemble suites look nothing like the above MJO plot. I can only surmise that the La Nina forcing is altering the above charts.
  23. EastonSN+
    How do you interpret the phase 1 March MJO look? NE is warm while the SE is cold. Is that "south based" blocking?
  24. EastonSN+
    Actually found it. Odd look warm in Main cold in North Carolina.
  25. EastonSN+
    Is phase 1 good in March in a la Nina?
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