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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Roll forward trough rises a bit and the SER is muted and does not connect to the NAO and we have big potential. We do not need a POS PNA just a -1sd RNA or higher. To much PNA and we have suppression.
  2. EastonSN+
    Trough touches BAJA, SER connects to NAO and we are warm.
  3. EastonSN+
    Hard to tell at this point. It's at least 10 days.
  4. EastonSN+
    Long range on the ensembles all show a progression to a colder pattern. The PNA does not go positive through the 15 day period. HOWEVER, the RNA does go above -1 SD on the charts (on the ensembles represented as a trough that does not go into the Baja and therefore a SE ridge that is muted into the gulf states). The main difference of the ensemble suites is the GEFS gives us a brief window around the 6th before the 10th while the EPS is rather warm until the 10th Summary - still on track for the 10th +, - a couple days for our window.
  5. EastonSN+
    Very likely could until the RNA rises around the 10th
  6. EastonSN+
    Yeah until the RNA loosens it's grip we will have difficulties. Like Chuck said the 8th to the 19th look a little better. I was saying the 10th to 20th so basically same page. Essentially need the RNA to weaken to -1 SD.
  7. EastonSN+
    Not our storm. Too early in the Blocking development.
  8. EastonSN+
    As Dons stats alluded to it needs to breach a SD of -1. That works fine without needed to go full positive.
  9. EastonSN+
    I guess to wrap up the upcoming period, storms will have a tendency to cut until the RNA stops pumping the SE ridge. Approx timing March 10.
  10. EastonSN+
    Yeah that 3/4 should cut. Still too early. I would not expect anything till around the 10th for the 10 to 15 day window.
  11. EastonSN+
    It's just the beginning of the Blocking period which usually favors the NE given the block is still east based. Our window is after.
  12. EastonSN+
    I mean it snowed in CPK in April 2018, but I agree the window is the 10th through the 20th.
  13. EastonSN+
    Temps are fine at this point and the PNA is still rising. In Mid March a high of 34 at CPK works.
  14. EastonSN+
    This is what I was alluding to earlier. Starts to get real interesting at this point.
  15. EastonSN+
    Yup. However this can still go either way plenty of time.
  16. EastonSN+
    Yup. Still a ways away. N and E is best S and W is worse since the blocking is East. Eastern LI can do well.
  17. EastonSN+
    It will come down to the RNA strength as the AO goes negative. If the models trend stronger with the RNA we warm, the opposite we snow.
  18. EastonSN+
    So far for 12z GFS cut back a bit on the snow. CMC increased a bit on the snow. Let's see the ensembles and ECMWF before making a conclusion on 12z.
  19. EastonSN+
    Everything improves around the 10th, when the AO drops, the PNA rises and the MJO goes into 8 at a good amplitude. Before then will be tough. Not comparing intensity, however 2018 went through the same progression where north and East scored early and South and West scored late into April.
  20. EastonSN+
    Thanks so much Don! This period coming up has the most potential since December. Would be nice to see the ground covered again!
  21. EastonSN+
    For the 10th of March and beyond, PNA rises AO drops MJO moves to phase 8 at a good amplitude Now, I know about sun angle, snowfall hostility in March in urban areas ETC, however CPK has had accumulating snows in April. Something to keep an eye on for the 10th to 20th time period.
  22. EastonSN+
    I am in SW CT so my biggest fear. I would be happy with a sloppy 1 to 3. Just hope this does not trend where my area is all rain.
  23. EastonSN+
    I am looking forward to this, rare that I can say I can double my entire season snowfall in March with 1.5 inches.
  24. EastonSN+
    Probably, and there will be a large SW/NE gradient across this sub forum (I am in CT so a little more optimistic). Still I would take CMC for the entire period. Better than what we have seen.
  25. EastonSN+
    What's interesting is it's heading into 8 at a very high amplitude. La Nina forcing was weakening the waves all year in 7/8. Interesting this looks legit. Perhaps due to la Nina slowly weakening?
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