EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Hazy hot and humid is my favorite weather!
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Love these squalls. Ten minutes of awesomeness.
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That was awesome. Amazing how fast we can get a coating of snow.
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Impressive
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EURO got a bit colder. Especially for north show of LI.
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Dam. Hopefully the following pattern is productive.
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UKMET is almost an inch for NYC
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Can never tell if you are giving a forecast at the same time.
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Boooooooo
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Being on the south coast I hope it's right. CMC has zilch or south of 84. At least the EURO had 1 to 3 south coast.
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Thanks for this. What are your thoughts? Do you believe the GFS or CMC at this juncture? Perhaps blend?
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CMC trended a BIT colder than 0z. Trend is important. GFS likely too weak and cold BUT CMC is probably too warm as well. Safe to go 1 to 3 from LI north to 84 this early.
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Apologies if I am being obtuse, however could the MJO be showing an El nino response? Seems like the past few years we have been saying El nino years have been acting like la Nina and vice versa. I know may not sound logical, however what does an El nino phase 3 look like? Just a hobbyist, but if we are getting minimal at best Arctic influence and mitigated MJO influence, what other drivers are out there?
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This one not looking so great for southern SNE in all models save GFS CURRENTLY. Looks like a solid thump though for CNE!!
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Actually trended warmer from 12 Z.
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Nice 4 to 8 thumper even down to Philly.
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This is a case where we snow MORE the longer the primary stays west due to strong CAD. This is why even though the storm cut more this run we still ended up snowier.
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They always favor those areas, however NYC can easily pick up 4 to 8 before mixing in these type of events. November 2018 NYC had 6.5 before changeover. March 2011 had 4.5 I am missing a thousand. But yes generally the city gets 1 to 3 before a changeover.
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Yeah we are stuck at level 3 currently. Shorter wavelengths in March also change the downstream effects.
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One thing I have noticed is the season outcome has followed the GEFS MJO plot like a puppy dog. If true we should be in phase 7 by the 10, with phase 8 potentially by the 20th. It nailed the January pattern with phase 8 recently. It IS taking bits sweet time in 3. Conscious that there are other environment influences. The hated wheely chart.
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Compression again?
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GEFS and GEPS coming more in line. Not liking the SE ridge. Again does align with the MJO. We shall see.
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GFS with a solid overrunning event. SNE 3 to 5 before ice. CNE 6 to 10.
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I know everyone hates the wheel charts for the MJO. However it explains the difference between EPS and GEFS. EPS drops into the COD while GEFS is robust into phase 5 by March 4th. Hence the SE ridge on the GEFS.
