EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Thanks Don. Could we extend the table/record to include March? Not trying to create extra work, however I feel like a lot of our dud winters have good Marches like 91/92/2019 etc... Thanks!
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Snowman showed that 8 is not GREAT in March in a La Nina, BUT it's far colder than 7 and we can snow in 8.
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I have seen worse.
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This blocking period is crucial. All models show some snow for CPK. If the temps are as low as predicted in March and CPK gets up to 4, I would think it would take this winter out of the top 10 in full winter futility. On the other hand, if the Blocking fails an connects to the SER, I would imagine it's a top 5. Amazing what relatively small differences can change in a historical context.
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One of the only times I would be upset with 15!
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Well, some on this forum would be happy during next couple weeks. Sorry Brooklyn:(
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CMC more tame
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Hey we can dream right.
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Okay, if you want snow this would be the time. AO drops while PNA rises.
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Great post by JBenedet
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Great post by CAPE.
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This is another reason this winter fascinates me. We had three distinct patterns already. Two of them, back to back, were the absolute worst pattern types for snow you can imagine, in the same year, in back to back months. THATS rare!
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Both patterns are completely horrible for snow. There is more potential for volatility in an strong RNA pattern than a stable maritime air pattern. So for a strong RNA pattern you will get higher temp departures due to the SE ridge. However you have better chances for snow as the cold can be tapped into/dragged over briefly. For a maritime 97/98 pattern, your average temps are lower due to the maritime air and tons of moisture, however there is no cold source in the entire continent to tap into. When a storm bombs out, it drags in air from the north. When Canada is well above average it's harder to wrap in cold enough air.
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Thanks. I think this past January is a good recent example of 97/98. No chance when the entire continent is scoured of cold air.
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That's all I am trying to get at. This January was a recent version of 97/98. That's why in 97/98 we waited till late March.
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Yeah agreed that neither pattern is good. I was just comparing a 97/98 vs. La Nina pattern like now. No cold in our continent vs. to our west.
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So this works. Compare this January to this February. Do not look at the average temps. Looks at the H5 and cold anomalies.
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Massive difference between no cold air in our continent vs. to our west.
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I don't know the percentage but they do happen. BROOKLYNWX, Dark Star or any MET, am I explaining 97/98 incorrectly? Wouldn't a pattern like this where the cold is in our continent better for snow than 97/98 where the entire continent is flooded by maritime air?
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February 2010 had cold air in Canada to tap into. In 97/98 the entire continent was scoured of cold air from the Nino pattern.
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If you have cold air in the CONUS, you can either have a cutter pull the boundary east briefly and allow for a weak trailing wave or changeover. When there is NO cold in the CONUS, at our latitude, the only way you can snow is by a massive bomb I'm the exact right spot. Let's agree to disagree.
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The reason this winter was more conducive to snowfall than 97/98 is the fact that we have cold on our side of the globe. Yes we failed to time a trailing wave etc. In 97/98 North America was scoured of cold air from the El Nino. You could (and did) have perfect coastal tracks in 97/98 however there was absolutely no cold air to tap into.
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The two windows I provided are better than any window that presented itself in 97/98, however the way this winter has gone 97/98 will likely finish higher.
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This window can work for front end snow for northern and eastern areas of the sub forum.
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This looks like the next window.
