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EastonSN+

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  1. EastonSN+
    So looking back in history, it seems that the two patterns that create winters such as this are strong Ninos or Ninas (conscious that there are other factors).
  2. EastonSN+
    1998 would have finished with 0.5 had it not been for that one late March event. That year felt far more hopeless than this one. In 97/98 we had a super Nino setup like January so there was no cold air in all of North America. Basically a warmer version of this past January.
  3. EastonSN+
    Thanks as always Don. So far the component that amazes me the most about this season has been the fact that we have not even had a fluke event. 01/02, 97/98 both had them in worse full season patterns IMO (striking out in December was what set this off and running). The fact that we had a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 70s and 60s shows how rare this year is. Moving forward, although the RNA will continue to dominate and boost the SER, there are 2 relatively small windows in the ensembles where we can get that one event. If we do not hit on either, I would have to put this winter as the most unique.
  4. EastonSN+
    See, this is how you ruin a blocking pattern. https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/california-forecast-to-see-low-elevation-snow-17796312.php Nearly entire population of California expected 'to see' snow
  5. EastonSN+
    Don had a stat which showed that 6+ events were more common when the SD of the PNA was -1.0 or higher. This year the RNA overwhelmed the blocking. I would imagine the same for +PNA, where the closer you are to a SD of 0 the better.
  6. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! I hope the weeklies are correct, however not sure what mechanism can dislodge/ weaken the RNA
  7. EastonSN+
    Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup.
  8. EastonSN+
    In the image in my previous post, imagine if the la Nina forcing was weaker. You would end up squeezing the PV like an orange and allow the cold to move under the block. Instead the La Nina forcing is so strong the RNA is just too deep and you "link" the SER to the PV.
  9. EastonSN+
    Great analysis by CoastalWX in the NE forum. The NAO is actually pinning the piece of PV west. IMO we just need that RNA to weaken. Not disappear but weaken. However this year it's not happening. At least we are saying goodbye to la Nina next year.
  10. EastonSN+
    Great analysis by Brooklynwx from the MA forum.
  11. EastonSN+
    I disagree that CC has dramatically affected our year. It's a steady progression. 01/02 roasted and we may or may not break that winters temp profile. The fact is the deep trough out west is causing this year to be very warm. Are we a couple degrees warmer that 1980 sure. However I do not believe we hit a wall in 2019 where now we roast and this is now "normal". The center of the trough has been MAINLY west of there with mostly a SW to NE orientation.
  12. EastonSN+
    It was 2009!!
  13. EastonSN+
    I would welcome 90s in April as our springs recently have been horrific. We hit 80s or 90s a couple days in April in 2008. I remember I bought my first house that year and was painting the inside with the AC on. Was crazy.
  14. EastonSN+
    Yup. Watched TWC and they showed that although they were well above average in snowfall, the trough was actually west of them.
  15. EastonSN+
    I disagree but we can agree to disagree at this point.
  16. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don Think I am giving up on this year. That RNA being this strong has ruined our NAO, caused it to link up with the SER. We need to clean out the La Nina I believe.
  17. EastonSN+
    This is a truly historic winter for the west. We are paying the price for it but good for them.
  18. EastonSN+
    GEFS just strengthened the RNA and hence now links the SER to the NAO. Bad movement. RNA has been relentless, however great west coast winter!
  19. EastonSN+
    Yeah any year that Baja Mexico beats us in snowfall and cold.....
  20. EastonSN+
    By comparison here is the GEFS. Notice that having a weaker RNA makes a big difference? The Blocking is further south here, however it does not matter due to the fact that the RNA is weaker. I pointed out before that the RNA and NAO are flexing at the same time for 2 years now. WEAKER RNA/NAO combination works better than a stronger NAO/RNA. IMO the LA NINA is Strongly coupled and driving this RNA. We may break the lowest snowfall record is the RNA does not relent. Still, one should not look at this year as more hopeless than 97/98 01/02, for those years flukes their way to snowfall. We have just not been able to do so this year as of yet.
  21. EastonSN+
    So THIS is the point in time that is critical. As Don alluded to snowfall drops as the RNA goes below 1. This is still a strong RNA. The difference between a 10/11 and all other years where the block helped us snow as compared to the years it did not is either the RNA was weaker allowing for the PV to get squeezed underneath the block (flatter trough out west) OR the deep RNA was transitioning to weak or neutral. The look below would fail in 1920, 1960, likely anytime in post 1900 history. Now, what happens after this frame is key. Does the RNA rise? If so as the block continues to migrate west we have an opportunity. If the block just merges with the -EPO then the cold will still be trapped west and we ridge and fail. Long story short. Blocking can be historic if we have a -1 or transitioning RNA, or become useless if the RNA is too deep. The SER/NAO linkage is NOT a driver, but rather a wave affect from the deep trough out west. Side note. The GEFS looks better than the EPS even though the GEFS never goes back to 8 while the EPS does.
  22. EastonSN+
    It was the third wave that held all the potential not the Cutter. The cutter was record intensity which killed the third wave. As for this block, if the RNA is too strong we strike out and it links with the SE ridge. We need it to weaken. At least 01/02 and 97/98 lucked into one event. This may not. We shall see.
  23. EastonSN+
    The funny this is the block in December DID move from an east to a west block and eventually hooked up with the EPO. Two things about December. 1.) Horrible luck, if the second wave was normal strength the third wave could have clocked us. Then this entire winter is just a bad winter instead of a 01/02 replica 2.) The RNA started off way too strong. This hurt the first event which ironically is half of this forums only snowfall I would take a repeat of the December progression in a heartbeat, however like December early on the RNA will be too deep and cause havoc to start. We need the RNA to rise quicker to -1 or better.
  24. EastonSN+
    Really depends on where your location is in the sub forum. Away from Long island, coastal NJ it can still work (obviously north of 84). Of course timing too (cloud cover arrives later in the overnight to allow for more radiational cooling, precip arrives 2 to 4 am, intensity picks up in the AM to compensate for the rising sun).
  25. EastonSN+
    Another observation. Since 2013 generally speaking Decembers have been warmer/less snowy and our March/springs have been colder and snowier (even a recent white rain/dusting in May). Thinking aloud, perhaps the IO warming works against us with longer wavelengths and actually works in our favor when the wavelengths shorten?
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