EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Yeah I mean 0.7 inches is very doable in CPK. Would not take much at all to accomplish. However WOW on the pattern coming up. Now we have to be cautious as we know a good pattern does not guarantee that success is realized, however we can't strike out twice in one season can we?
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The ensembles show two distinct snowfall patterns coming up. Approx the 7th we have the NAO keeping heights lowered in our area with a ridge JUST to our west. Think their past storm (mixing in buffalo snow in CPK). Then just 3 to 4 days later we get a spike in PNA resulting in an east coast trough. How long this lasts I do not know but this timeframe has MAJOR potential. Our risk will be suppression.
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IF the GFS has the correct idea on the next storm, CPK rises out of futility. 0.7 for CPK. Obviously we need another small tick SW to create a buffer.
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Apologies if I am being obtuse, however it looks like the entire pattern shifts from an RNA/blocking pattern to a -EPO, +PNA pattern with an east coast trough. Do you see the same?
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Agreed but only 0.7 needed to avoid futility.
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Definitely a small tick south on the GEFS. Maybe following the op at this point.
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GFS can south a tad. A little front end snow (this is snow depth map). Can CPK get 0.7 inches to avoid the snowfall futility record?
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Yeah not good for DC.
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Good news for those that were fearing "getting pushed back". The good look on the GEFs and GEPS have moved UP. Looks good starting March 8.
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Also, all three ensemble suites look nothing like the above MJO plot. I can only surmise that the La Nina forcing is altering the above charts.
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How do you interpret the phase 1 March MJO look? NE is warm while the SE is cold. Is that "south based" blocking?
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Actually found it. Odd look warm in Main cold in North Carolina.
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Is phase 1 good in March in a la Nina?
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We are still in play for a coating to 2 inches before the flip. Also, the good period starts around the 10th when the RNA is not too powerful like the late week warmup. Take a look at H5 on the ensembles.
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Correct! See, we WANT the RNA to pump the SER a little. If not, congrats MA. This year the RNA has created a historic winter for California, Arizona, Nevada etc. If we are all onboard the persistence train, then the RNA will help us rise the SER.
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Ha. What are your thoughts on this March 10th window? So far have not heard a MET argue against a good look yet (even DT is onboard now). Would like to get your thoughts.
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This was one of the most impressive miller Bs I have lived through. I only received 5.1 inches, however mixing in buffalo to a low off the Delmarva and 1.8 at the park shows how intense the NAO was.
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You WANT this in a strong block otherwise you are suppressed and it's congratulations MA. Look at last night the RNA actually helped us. If the RNA was weaker we risk suppression. Take a look at the MA, this and the NE sub forums. Most METS are onboard with only posters arguing against. Most of the arguments are just from "persistence". Now, if you can convince me how the H5 look is likely to fail I am all ears.
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Wow GEFS caved to the EPS. We have the pattern, I would wager against striking out again like December. Can't get hit by lightning twice in one year
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I am just happy it was not 1.3 that was reported earlier.
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The good period gets going around the 10th. That being said, we can still get confluence and start as snow and maybe a couple inches.
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This looks great, we have good cold air AND an RNA to avoid suppression
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I hope they remembered to measure again
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Yup NYC is so large there can be big diffs I don't know if the 1.3 for this storm is official.
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Measured 5.1 IMBY Easton CT 6.6 on the year.
