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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    I need another 50 mile jog south for coastal CT
  2. EastonSN+
    This map gets me so mad!!
  3. EastonSN+
    I am starting to see signs of a slightly positive PNA out there in the LR. Good to see the MJO staying in 8 for both ensemble suites.
  4. EastonSN+
    Thank you!!
  5. EastonSN+
    GEFS never moved from the 10th. EPS and GEPS still the 8th. We may get several small storms, couple moderate or one Large, the op runs are more entertaining at this point. Yes, we can strike out again like December too snow is never a guarantee, however this looks like the best window all season. We shall see how it shakes out. IMO it comes down to the RNA. Too strong and the look fades.
  6. EastonSN+
    GFS GEFS is later with the good period compared to GEPS and EPS. Let's hope........
  7. EastonSN+
    Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year!
  8. EastonSN+
    What's wrong with the GFS? The GEFS was always a couple days behind and while not showing the same KU potential, still shows a couple snow events (op) as well as a good pattern (GEFS). So having the GFS/GEFS as a floor is great IMO.
  9. EastonSN+
    I find it fascinating to see the difference between Long Island and coastal CT on a lot of those.
  10. EastonSN+
    This is a good site for both operational and ensemble model runs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
  11. EastonSN+
    You are on the exact same page as I am. Favorable patterns do not guarantee snow. Would role the dice on the December look again.
  12. EastonSN+
    Two distinct threats on the GFS. The GEFS has generally been later than EPS and GEPS in timing - think it's showing up here.
  13. EastonSN+
    Exactly!
  14. EastonSN+
    GFS close too.
  15. EastonSN+
    I had 5.1. NYC only needs 0.7 to avoid futility
  16. EastonSN+
    We just had a snow storm. So maybe our luck has changed
  17. EastonSN+
  18. EastonSN+
  19. EastonSN+
    So close on the CMC.
  20. EastonSN+
    19/20 is a good example of how a colder air mass in place is so important. Arctic air mass in place and similar track. Low to buffalo and CPK still received 4.5 inches with the same track.
  21. EastonSN+
    Not bad at all. Hopefully ticks south a bit further.
  22. EastonSN+
    Yup. Biggest concern as you pointed out is suppression.
  23. EastonSN+
    Also to keep the KU thoughts in perspective as well, we only had 5 in 30 years from 1970 through 1999.
  24. EastonSN+
    KU ingredients: MJO in high amplitude phase 8. Check Blocking in place and decaying. Check Rising PNA. Check Dropping EPO. Check Biggest question mark. PNA. We want it to rise at a quicker pace for a KU. Being in Negative first is great. The rise has to be quick enough. As it has been said, only 1 out of every 10 systems with the earmarks of a KU actually occured. So 10% chance here to keep everything in perspective.
  25. EastonSN+
    Thanks for this. Still do not know if 1 is good or not in March lol. However WOW in 8!
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