qg_omega

I like 1 to 3 tomorrow (snow to sleet) and 1 to 3 Monday afternoon and evening. Rain and 36 in the middle.

I’m expecting 1 to 3 inches tomorrow

Will be interesting for surface temps north of city, how cold we get tonight and amount of cloud cover tomorrow morning

No it’s counting front end as snow and it’s not, NAM is about 1 inch of snow at end for NYC and that’s 78hrs out so its nonsense

Please stop with the 10:1 maps those can’t be used

For city and coast it’s sleet to heavy rain Sunday night, dry slot most of Monday and hopefully back end 1 to 2 inches of snow is a good call

Very unlikely freezing rain given temps above freezing at the surface

Sleet to rain for the coast and city, too early to say if wraparound is real or the location of it. Would be nice to get a coating Monday night

No that will be focused to our North and East

Overrunning Sunday is the best chance we have, if it ends up rain that would be disappointing

BAMWX says much below normal

And warm

Looks like a lakes cutter to me, not buying the redevelopment, better shot would be NE of the area. Not to mention it looks warm

Not looking good for BAMWX

10mb GFS 384hr runs don’t help the cause

Getting close to canceling winter

Blocking is always a false flag, it will come in March and April

Agreed, main reason I don’t understand the December much below normal calls

Agreed, I don’t understand weather BAMWX is seeing that most aren’t

10mb GFS 384hr post’s all over the twitter

It’s all pacific air under the block with a negative PNA, that’s a chilly rain pattern

Blocking means little if the air under the block is from the pacific

Right on

“With the AO currently serving as the "king" of the Northern Hemisphere pattern, weakening of the AO domain blocking, could provide the first tangible evidence that a pattern change toward milder weather is imminent. For now, even as a milder than normal December appears more likely than not, the timing of the necessary pattern change remains uncertain.” To be fair, at the beginning of November you wrote chances of an above normal November were likely (70 percent if I recall) was strong consensus of warmth to possibly really warm in the second half of this month.

YTD snow?