Not seeing the winter threats mixed in not do I see this magic New year's day target where the pattern "flips". I do not trust long range NAO modeling and the Pacific is not serviceable. Think we need more posts about the SSW....
Cutters shall continue well into January. PV split into Europe and we go zonal gradient with cutters. NAO like always will fail and fade as we move up in time
Very much doubt it gets split in three, I favor the PV in Europe. A SSW event is very risky, if it does settle in Europe don't expect much winter weather in the East
I lived right on the water most of my life, wind direction is what it comes down to. A costal front and water temperature are two different things. Water in the 50s is not an issue with the correct wind