qg_omega

That was the GFS not the Euro

The pattern for the first 20 days of January remains horrific for winter weather. It can snow in bad patterns for SNE / NNE and even in the mid Atlantic in the middle of January. That does not change the fact this pattern shows no signs of changing. EPS remain rock solid, GEFS as usual is caving and pushing any changes back in time.

EPS is leading the way here and it's much different than the GEFS

Best post of the year

Excited for closed lifts?

SSW Vortex Split

The biggest mistake a trader can make is holding on to a losing position and trying to convince everyone else why he is still correct and the market is wrong. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNG/

Wow you now agree to what I said in November. We are finally on the same page

You talk in absolutes about something that is far from certain. You fail to account what is currently happen and dismiss all notion you may be wrong. This will be a learning experience for many on here.

Northern Maine into NNE

In this pattern it's either a cutter or surpressed, nothing changes for at least another three weeks.

Not this winter so far

March snow is the worst snow

Those are all what I consider the other side of the globe in terms of our weather. All not good locations, sure it can snow with that in NNE but that's mid January in NNE. Those are not good positions for the Northeast as a whole.

EPS splits PV into other side of globe and northern Europe as I have predicted since the SSW showed up on models in November. Huge risks with this as we can go pac fast gradient flow all of January with the PV over Siberia with another piece over Northern Europe.

How bad was the recent ice storm for you? I'm glad you finally see what this pattern really is, January is toast.

Mid Atlantic winter of YORE

I disagree but maybe that is why I do not forecast extremely long range. To me its like a trader in a bad position and trying to justify why he is correct as he loses more and more money. Maybe it really is a case of delayed but not denied, but its clear this winter is not progressing as many thought. Call it the SSW, MJO, Positive SOI in an El Nino....the pattern screams pac jet and fast flow for the foreseeable future.

December was forecasted by many to be warm across the conus, CPC nailed it on their month forecast issued late November. It was clear very early on the MJO would have a prolonged stay in phase 5. Personally, I believe the SSW event and possible split of the PV is a game changer to most winter forecasts and not for the better. I have a very hard time with the delayed but not denied method of forecasting. If your forecast required A + B + C + D and A failed and B was not as expected, you can't leave C and D alone as if A and B's failure don't have an impact.

1/15

I see three PV lobes, all over Europe. No blocking and zonal pac flow over the country. I know it's the 18z OP GFS but I don't care what model it is, I believe it has the right idea. Agrees with my thoughts from early December after the snowstorm in November. November snow historically is not a good sign for the winter. We are going to miss a good six weeks of winter with a very hostile pattern. I hope it changes in mid January but I'm not hopeful until we see the MJO actually move into phase 7. It's currently stalled in 5 and that's going on 15 days. I'm not trolling here but the misinformation in this forum spread by a small few is disappointing.

MJO still stuck in phase 5, PV splitting into Europe, my thoughts from 10 days ago still remain the same despite DIT calling an end to all rain and cutters

Just as likely as flipping a coin at that range like I said

Lol the warm cuts are only gone in your head, rain on Friday

MJO is not very strong on Euro or UKMET, the GFS has something wrong with it.