The 4 Seasons

I'm noticing a trend here

5D?

1-3 for all of CT? Kevin not gonna like that. Pretty much what were going

NAM and 3K is like virtually nothing for CT

they also both include 2 and 3". you're focusing on the higher end of one and lower end of another. The impacts are what matter, its a a pretty light event but high impact due to the sleet/ice and timing.

I saw. @Sey-Mour Snow and I think it will be more uniform...and not the not so great look with pcp shield, snow growth etc, things we've mentioned earlier posts. We'll see tomorrow, im not digging my heels in and refusing to change anything...just where were at right now

First call, if nothing major changes will keep for the final. Going relatively bearish with this one. Edit: Added SNE

defintely ticked south overall a hair...getting closer to what the GEM/GFS/NAM are showing

Def came south too and the follow up came NW good run

GFS took a haircut on qpf but the overall evolution and track remains consistent

Everything seems to be coming south. EC is on its own with that look. Still dont expect a whole lot of snow out of this though.

Advisories up for BOX, 1-4" of snow/sleet/zr. seems about right

Ok. Here's my thoughts right now.. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close. I think the NWS has right idea. I think you're going to be hard pressed to see much more than around an inch of snow in and around the city into LI. IF that, maybe just a coating

Tough forecast right now. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close.

And thats the NAM which is on the colder side of guidance. The ECMWF is significantly warmer. Temps will shoot up briefly pretty much everywhere in CT for a few hours

GFS has been the most consistent, doesn't mean the euro is wrong either. But its kind of on its own with that look. The GFS has support from most of the other models

Clear trend on the GEM. GFS has been pretty consistent with not much change run-run. And id say the Euro for that matter, overall, being the farthest north and warmest

It's a real dr no thing to do, to be delayed for an hours then still f*** us with a crappy run

Yea, i think it was this one! thank you for the link, thats what i was looking for.

No, not that. I have that one, thats just for the american suite. I forget who shared it but it had information on the european and i think other foreign models? When they were delayed and why. Hopefully someone who knows can share it, id just like to have to link for the future as well.

whats that source page that has info about model delays etc. i saw someone posted it here a while back, id like the link for that

yeah the trend has been very clearly pushing south and colder on most models for the past day or so.

12Z trends looks fantastic so far for SNE. Everything coming in colder and south, GGEM, GFS, UKMET looks like a solid 2-5 for most and then ending as some sleet/zr. Thursday looks like a complete mess.

EC/GEM also ticking colder What i find interesting is that GEFS wants nothing to do with the Thursday system, despite the OP being consistently the coldest/farthest south with the LP. Even the GEPS/EPS are much more robust and snowier.

Yeah theres definitely bit a a cooling/south trend with the ECMWF past few runs