The 4 Seasons

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-25-2017

GEFS follows suit, solid bump NE on the qpf.

I will eat my hat if that starts happening, better chance of seeing the real Saint Nick tomorrow

Happy Hour bump. We take.

Could be right but seems quite a bit low imo

yea its been pretty consistent overall last few cycles

who did the first one

I mean it bumped NE overall so it looks better for everyone

That Euro run was pretty sweet for the LHV into SW CT and here.

Euro looks great S/SW CT special

What map? The forecast for the dec 23rd event?

This system reminds me of Jan 14-15, 2004. Low track diving SE and snowfall gradient are similar. That's the only storm that comes to mind with this event that i can think of. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-14-15-2004

I think you'll find nearly every met in the SNE forums will tell you don't use it. There's a lot more to snow growth and high ratios then just temperatures. You can easily get 8-10:1 arctic sand with needles and plates with temps in the 10s and conversely you can get 15-30:1 fluff with sfc temps near freezing. Kuchera is always gonna be inflated really high like this when the column is very cold. You can use it if you want, im just saying there's a lot more to look at than pretty kuchera snowfall maps.

Because it shows the most snow... The kuchera maps are ridiculous for the storm like nearly 1.5X or double 10:1 because its so frigid, esp N and W. When it's cold Kuchera will show a lot of snow. Doesn't take into account lift in the DGZ, frontogenesis or anything...strictly based on temps. I agree with the NWS and a lot of mets on here. I don't use it, it's useless imo.

0.66666:1 SWE. Epic. I'm working on a Tri-State Snowfall map now, should be done by mid-afternoon once i get cocorahs and coop. I went through the past 5 pages and got everybody on here. Thanks!

00Z GFS had a nice bump NE.

oh yeah, yes several. add EPS to that too.

i dont know what this means

thats Butler, NJ

fwiw GEPS was a big improvement from 00Z. One of the best runs yet, its actually pretty solid for most of SNE

Nice band of 2-6" in Orange and Rockland counties

Yeah i was looking at this recently because im getting ready to work on the 94-95 season. NYC got 10.8" from that storm and 11.6" all winter total. If it werent for that storm they would have had 0.8" on the winter, which would have made it, by far the worst season in history. Along with a lot of other climo sites, it would have been the worst winter ever including ORH.

i see. Yes, in the 90s. 93-94 and 95-96 were notably good winters, great in fact. 94-95 was about as bad as you can get. One big storm that winter and that was it.

I didn't say anything about 95-96, i said late 90s specifically 96-99

We have been spoiled. Getting a 12-18" blizzard every year becomes expected rather than the rare event it is. The 2010s were truly amazing. I'd say better than the 2000s. The late 90s were horrendous. IMO this is the worst stretch since 96-97 through 99-00.