The 4 Seasons

I remember that one two years ago that was a bad bust on the warmer side. Feb 25th 2022. it looked like mostly snow every model had warning snowfall, right before the event started the ECMWF doubled down with 8-14 inches. But the NAM wasnt having it and was mostly a mix of sleet/zr. We went 4-8" and ended up with 1-2" of pure sleet, it never even snowed here. Nothern CT did OK with 2-5" and some sleet.

Final call. We bumped up 1-2" across the board. Emphasizing sleet/zr mix at the end. Morning commute is gonna be a mess tomorrow.

So is this the first real win and good showing from the reggie since the Jan 26-27 2015 score that everyone likes to quote as the last time it was "good"? Storm hasnt played out yet but as far as i can tell the RGEM has been locked for days barely waffling.

yep, absolutely and they don't have one up. is that what you mean? i was more referencing their snow map vs their "1-2" thoughts.

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange... For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2 inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

Love me some big JEFE aka HREF. side note: the last 5-10 pages of this thread were a rollercoaster ride and i didn't want to get off. We'll see what the 12Z EC says but thinking about bumping up an inch or two. Sleet and ZR is becoming a focus and real concern for tomorrow.

yeah, obviously way warmer with that kind of track. 925s and 850s move up into SE SNE. Coastal and SE sections will likely flip, but i think were fine here, at least with that soln verbatim.

Yep, inside BM track but SE of ACK. Solid move NW, still pretty dry though.

Id be absolutely shocked if the ECMWF doesn't come NW, a solid jump, at least...not a tick. And we are now approaching 24hrs....12Z it was well SE of the BM and 18Z pretty much right over the BM.

terrible. total bust, at least for mby and most of new haven county which we had in the 5-10" range away from the shore. ended up with 3.3"

i was referencing pack POST the Tuesday storm.

Yeah, this past Wednesday/Thursday the mean on the EC was a huge swath of 6" across most of New England. Some of the OP runs we're pretty nice and had 8-14" over E/SNE We were looking at potentially a region wide 6-10" event or more but then things quickly fell apart and over the past couple days we've been looking at 1-3" deal (with some very good globals having nothing more than snow showers) then the possibility of 3-5" over some of SNE if things pan out well. Expectations fell to the floor and have been recently rising a tick or two. I think a lot of us are watching and are invested in this because 1) this winter has been complete garbage so far, so anything feels like a win and 2) we've got a solid cold shot after the storm to keep the "pack" intact and 3) a potentially significant storm on the horizon for the 20th to add to said pack.

roughly, although if something like RGEM comes to fruition we may see a stripe of 5-8 across the interior of MA and CT, wouldn't be surprised at all.

Measles ftw! Yeah, we are definitely seeing a move towards the mesos, that 70/30 split i mentioned may be very conservative. Might be more like 90/10

GEM also came well NW as well.

GFS with a total cave. Not as crazy as the HRRR or RGEM going over the islands but its defintely inside the BM now. Again, i think well see a compromise here but closer to the mesos than the globals, maybe a 70/30 compromise? Which would probably be a sweet spot for most of the forum. Well see where we are at after the 00/06Z suite tonight but i think we're looking good overall.

RGEM is being very very stubborn with this event, just not wavering much each run

Kinda wild the difference between the mesos and the globals. RGEM goes over the canal, HRRR over ACK, GEM/EC over the BM and GFS well SE of the BM. Still think well see a compromise, somethings gotta give we are approaching 24 hours till start time, at least on the mesos. The timing differences are also pretty stark with HRRR/NAM 10pm-midnight moving into S CT and the EC/GFS not really getting things going until 7AM ish on Tuesday. Our first call was 1-3, we'll be making a final call tomorrow but i think for now that still stands.

Yeah, i agree. This could turn out to be a really nice event with perfect timing for the daylight, almost perfectly centered from sunup to sun set, surface temps in the mid to upper 20s, with cold after the storm.

6Z euro is not gonna be as good as 00Z, looks like it ticked back SE, similar to 18Z. Still a decent swath of snow over SNE about 1-3. Just an off hour run though, 12Z could easily tick back NW.

RGEM is a nuke, drops 16mb in 12 hours. Its been fairly consistent but is definitely an outlier right now with that NW track and explosive development. Also these mesos have been much warmer punching 850s well into SE southern new england while the globals are pretty much all snow region wide including the gem/gfs/ec.

Pretty big jump up on the Ec, it's been playing a bit of catch up with the mesos so it's expected. I think a region wide 1-4 is a good starting point for now. Kind of a far cry from the moderate snowstorm we were potentially looking at a few days ago but also a lot better than pure whiff, especially with the cold incoming

Aye that's my fav storm of all time. I thought yours was 12/30/00

Why

23 months with <3"?