The 4 Seasons

not really, no, you're right. It's just the off-hour waffling that's annoying and seems to be a frequent thing with 6/18Z EC especially. If it were 5 years ago and all we had was the 00Z/12Z Euro it would appear much more consistent at this range.

You are playing the semantics game, you asked me what my forecast is right now, i told you. Of course theres a chance, theres always a chance even after 12Z tomorrow. Crazier things have happened in very close range. I'm always the first one to say that, its never 100% done. It's just extremely low right now. For far SE MA id still be interested, but thats about it. That's where i stand

DXR is at -7 right now, IJD -9..wow.

you want to know if its all or nothing? I never said zero snow, the threat for a plowable real storm is virtually gone. Maybe eastern CT gets clipped with some light snow. But the plug has been pulled on a snowstorm for CT. No advisory level or higher snowfall for CT, anywhere, thats what id say right now. A flurry or some light snshrs perhaps.

I was really hoping we would get to stack another 10-15 or possibly more on top of the 15" or so thats OTG. How often does that happen in CT? Virtually never. Last time was like 2011 when there was 3-4 feet OTG. Even another low end warning event 6-8" would have been sick. What a waste of a good setup and frigid airmass. oh well..

great consistency. sometimes i think we should have stuck to having it run 2X/day, same with the GFS. The mesos can run 4X so we have more up to the hour information getting close to a storm <60hrs or so.

kevin will hold on to the sinking ship to the bitter end though

I'd normally post the final snowfall maps here but there is a separate thread for storm totals so i posted them in there, thanks

Ugh, that storm. I like to call it Jan 15 Lite. Essentially the same snowfall gradient with a few inches less across the board. You did great on both though. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-28-29-2022 I posted the Jan 25-26th, 2026 snowfall totals in the other thread if anyone's interested. Site is updated as well.

yep i knew that 18Z EC/EPS was bullshit. its been happening all winter...watch 6Z come back again. Ok, this time i think it's safe to say she's gone, though for you, you might be scraped. For CT its gone.

Just finished all the final snowfall maps for this historic snowstorm. I tried to make sure only to include reports that were updated as of late Monday night which was a nightmare (OKX never updated their PNS, the interactive map had tons of old reports, etc). Reports are from here, cocorahs, COOP and official climo sites. Thanks to everyone who messaged me or tagged me in a report. I tried to use most of them if i could fit them in but sometimes they overlap or there is more than 1 for a given town. I ended up changing the ranges to 6-10/10-14/14-20/20-27 to be more fitting with system and so there was less bubbles and holes. These are all up on the site and a full archive link will come later with radar & sfc/upper air maps. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/winter-25-26 The final forecast was mostly good but was a bit too conservative across the board. Most of CT did fall within the 12-18" range with some higher numbers to the north and northeast. SE corner and SW corner also verified in the 8-12 range. Looking back a realistic best call would have been 10-14/14-20 and for SNE 10-14/14-20 and 20-30 or 20+ northeast. Snowfall Totals Final Forecast Updated Snowfall Analysis Map

I sorted all the reports and weeded out all the ones that were early or before it was over and didn't include Monday. Apparently thats final from cocorahs. But it does seem too low, so i tossed it. not in the final map.

Final snowfall totals for the Jan 25-26th Snowstorm. This was a huge undertaking that i've been working on all week sifting through over 1,000 reports. Thank you to everyone who sent me a report or tagged me. I tried to use most of them when i could but some just couldn't fit or multiples for a single town/area. This will be up in the archive once surface and upper level maps come out. The forecast for this was solid overall, though a bit on the conservative side across the board, but still most major cities fell with original 8-12" range across NYC/NJ and LI. I changed the ranges to 6-10/10-14/14-20/20+ to be more fitting with the snowfall totals and so there was less holes/bubbles. These maps are now up on our site in the Winter 25-26 page. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/winter-25-26 Snowfall Totals Final Forecast Updated Snowfall Analysis Map

This event is now up as the 7th 3"+ snowfall event of the season with snowfall maps, radar and sfc/upper air maps. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-21-22-2026 Snowfall Totals

looks very close to the 18Z euro at 84 Ha - pretty much https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-26-27-2010

how many teraflops to run this

Ginx has access to secret underground 18Z ECMWF 144-360HR panels. He accidentally exposed himself. Now we know and we are telling the EU.

im not either but id at least it went in the right direction. have to wait for 00z but im fully expecting it to come back to a 12z reality.

lmao or 4 year ago... as long as i know its coming and im not expecting 20-30 like 2015 or 12-20 like 2022 then id be totally fine with it...better than a whiff. you gotta be a real nut job to rather have cirrus than 8" just bc SE MA gets 18-24.

wxbell 18Z EPS

Several big dogs in there, even as far back as W CT/W MA to the NY boarder...a lot more than 12Z

post some weenie vista i need that dopamine hit, wxbell isn't loaded yet.