Random Chaos

0.87" rain, nothing coming down right now. Tide about 0.5’ Datum (believe that is about 0.0’ MLW based on Annapolis being -0.55 datum to MLW). Winds are around 25 gusting 30. They peaked earlier today 30 gusting 38.

Just lost power. Winds 26-28 gusting 35.

Transition more likely the reason. Winds are forecast (just north of Bay Bridge): Tonight NE wind 19 to 24 kt, with gusts as high as 34 kt. Rain, mainly after 11pm. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Saturday NE wind around 30 kt, with gusts as high as 44 kt. Rain. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Saturday Night NE wind 27 to 32 kt decreasing to 17 to 22 kt. Winds could gust as high as 41 kt. Rain. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Though models actually show strongest winds tonight closer 30-35kt gusts 50kt+

Little surprised that there is not even a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Chesapeake Bay. Most of the models are predicting 35-40mph-winds.

No, 925mb on what I posted was 74kt. Surface at 1001mb was 66kt.

And dropsonde with 66kt surface.

Dropsonde found 66kt at surface NW of center. Category 1 threshold is 64kt.

You might lose power. Better stock on ice chests instead.

I was looking at the shear map’s just yesterday morning expecting that. With the vorticity of a tropical cyclone when storms in its bands come ashore it’s common to get weak tornadoes.

Extreme tides now forecast for Annapolis:

Based on the model output, heaviest winds near the bay are likely overnight Friday into Saturday AM, probably from around midnight to 10am. This is a band well ahead of the main storm which will still be down in North Carolina at that time. Midday Saturday we should have relaxed winds (still 20kt+) and less gusty between the leading band and the main storm before it picks up again Saturday evening as the main storm center approaches, though less windy than the leading band the previous night. Heaviest rain is harder to forecast due to substantial model divergence but seems to generally correspond to the heaviest winds.

Where’s the rain/snow line? in seriousness, don’t like 58mph gusts near me…

I plan to post data on how high the tide gets on the west side. Got a staff gauge on my pier zeroed to zero datum (can look up the offset from mean low water to that).

I'll believe it when we get snow.

Waiting for CBOFS tide forecasts to get in range. Wind direction is going to be NE initially which will push water toward the western side of the Bay. This is NHC:

Was even faster - the 40% was in the 2-7 day period. It was only 10% in the 48hr period just 3 hours ago.

The ASCAT pass I posted in the other Tropical subforum thread shows a closed low as of 4 hours ago. So not surprised they are escalating quickly.

ASCAT pass from about 4 hours ago:

Oh NAM… I know it’s not good with tropical systems… but wow…963mb cyclone

This is going to be one giant eye when it finishes clearing out the remnants of the old eye. Probably 12-ish hours left on that.

0Z GEFS has 100% of the members showing a landfall in either New England or adjacent Canada, with a fairly even distribution between Long Island through Newfoundland & PEI.

It is impressive it’s maintaining 959mb pressure with an open eyewall (per latest dropsonde and vortex report). But it feels like 87kt might be underestimated; 3 hours ago a dropsonde found 96kt surface winds and the latest dropsonde found 86kt surface winds with two 106kt unflagged SFMR readings. This system seems stronger than it has any right to be given the shear and satellite appearance. I also feel the standard flight level to surface wind adjustments haven’t matched what empirical data has shown with this storm the last two days; the surface winds are consistently stronger than they should be given observed flight level winds.

It’s amazing that even with shear now 24 hours in the core has been constantly emitting heavy lightning for the past 40+ hours. This storm seems primed to reintensify the moment the shear relaxes.

Indications of a double maxima on recon, but it’s subtle. Probably the start of an ERC and if so likely the cause of the degraded appearance on satellite this morning:

I hope that recon gets there soon. Eye has filled in and is occluded, but lightening is going insane (have a 80-150 strokes per 10 minutes the past 2 hours!). I think it might be an ERC but the latest microwave pass was too long ago (2.5 hours). I’m basing this on the eye becoming a pinhole just before vanishing plus IR looking like a second maximum cold ring is now appearing about 15-20nm radius. If so this might be the fastest nothing to ERC I’ve ever heard of (normally they take 12-24 hrs).