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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    Weak (Miller A) system to our southeast with a robust moisture field is my favorite setup for snow. Usually mutes the dreaded warm nose, and in this particular case with temps about as marginal as they come .....would likely be the best case scenario providing the best chance at something other than rain for the elevated and far eastern areas.
  2. tnweathernut
    Regarding the potential early week system............ all hail the GFS? Maybe it will win this battle, but not the war (later in the week)?
  3. tnweathernut
    I noticed that too. A compromise solution at 500 wouldn't surprise me. The only problem with a compromise would be knowing the surface reflection would be poo poo.
  4. tnweathernut
    Great discussion, guys! I have been super busy, but have really enjoyed following along when time permits. John, I agree, events like this will eventually happen again. Sure looks like old biases may be at play looking at the GFS vs. the EURO from last night. GFS is very progressive at 500 (the surface reflects this too). Just wants to blast everything through the TN Valley and be done with it. The Euro tends to overly amp in the long range, but this seems to be sprouting much closer in time, so does that bias really apply here? Genesis of the trailing frontal (northwest gulf) low in response to the energy at 500 begins shortly after hour 100 (not exactly way out in time). I think this will be a fascinating early season model dual between the new and improved GFS, and the once almighty Euro (snow vs. no snow outcome aside). If the brief west coast ridging can hold on just a bit longer, it should give the energy at 500 more of a chance to dig toward the gulf coast (like the euro at 0z) and develop a southeast storm system. If the Pacific blasts in and collapses the ridging we probably see something closer to the progressive look on the GFS. Fairly minor differences at 500mb (18,000 feet up) between the GFS and Euro, but major differences at the surface where we live. As an aside, I am loving the looks of higher pressures in the NAO region. Feels a bit like finding a unicorn December through the end of February these days.......
  5. tnweathernut
    System in the southwest stays closed and almost stationary as if to say........ woah, good buddy just do your thing. I’ll hang out here for a while”
  6. tnweathernut
    The next piece of energy is robust, but not much separation at 150. Let’s see how the monster vortex in the eastern US tangos with that piece...
  7. tnweathernut
    Mountain snows would be huge if this plays out as shown on the 0z GFS.
  8. tnweathernut
    Crazy. Looks like 1950 all over again, just a bit further north...
  9. tnweathernut
    There is more interaction between the northern branch and southern branch, and with that “dance” a further west solution.
  10. tnweathernut
    I’m just mainly looking for trends at 500. Feels good to be back tracking something with the crew.......
  11. tnweathernut
    That’s bold wording from MRX, for a system this far away. Generally they are extremely conservative, sometimes even as inches of snow are falling around the region.
  12. tnweathernut
    Other than looking great as you mention, I also like the part about moisture gathering again to our SW at the end of the run.........
  13. tnweathernut
    Yeah, lake effect totals would be enormous for some!
  14. tnweathernut
    This could be a bias of the Euro as we watch it roll in. Since their last upgrade it has a tendency to over-intensify storm systems. A further west track as a result (as shown on 12z) makes a lot of sense..... Odds of a Miller A are increasing. Likely wet, but the chances for first flakes for some are not out of the question. At the very least it will probably FEEL like winter as early as next week.
  15. tnweathernut
    But is the atmosphere acting like a La Niña? It seems like the actual pattern has been out of phase with El and La more often than not.
  16. tnweathernut
    Terrible news. Let us know if we can do anything to help........
  17. tnweathernut
    Yep, totally different from the first few words..... lol nice find........You always amaze me with your records and recollections. You are a great asset to our group!!
  18. tnweathernut
    There was a scenario several years back where modeling was not enthused at all about precip into Tennessee. I remember Robert @ WxSouth ended up picking up on the inverted trough and in the end there was a decent snow from it. I can't remember the year, but my recollection tells me the basics were familiar... (i.e. overrunning, inverted trough, no defined low, etc.) Does anyone else remember this event?
  19. tnweathernut
    Still not too excited about this one, but the flow has backed a bit over the last several runs on modeling. This is probably oversimplified, but IF we can manage a WSW flow vs ESE or even W, there's at least a chance for more generous precip. In a nutshell I am hoping for the best, preparing for the worst I guess you'd say. Regarding time, when you see "Z" time, just subtract 5 hours to get to actual time in the EST zone, and subtract 6 hours in the CST zone.
  20. tnweathernut
    9 times out of 10 these setups will produce precip much further north than being modeled 3-4 days out... that said, 500mb is a hot mess on most modeling, including the 12z Euro OP (i.e. we likely find the 1 out of 10).
  21. tnweathernut
    Still pops later, but you are right. At least for this run vs. the past 3, it looks a bit delayed.
  22. tnweathernut
    It's been pretty bad........ but the Euro was throwing a solution last night so who knows. Normally, if someone's life depended on the ICON being right from day 8............... I'd tell them to have their family go ahead and prepare their obituary and wish them God speed.
  23. tnweathernut
    Banter post......... Looks like a fire breathing monster with ice cold eyes and green hair blowing a torch fest down on the lower 48. On topic, I will remain optimistic with what I am seeing. In order for this to work though, we are going to need to see modeling correct colder at 2M. This is something I can't remember happening in the winter months (D-F) in over 2 years. I am in, until I'm out.
  24. tnweathernut
    The 12z GEFS seems to really agree with the OP. This is smoothed of course, so it won't match exactly but it checks almost all the boxes for winter in the SE/Mid-South. 1. -NAO, west based 2. 50/50 3. PV in the Great Lakes 4. Southern Stream energy off the CA coast 5. Hints of a - EPO and -AO 6. Aleutian Low Some of these points could be consider marginal or not perfectly placed, but all in all one of the better looking maps you will see at day 8.
  25. tnweathernut
    The 12z GFS sent the brutal cold sliding across southern Canada, and largely kept it out of the lower 48, except for brief incursions into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes area. It's still cold here.
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