Chinook

We will have a narrow area of 80-95 degrees on the high plains on Tuesday, while the Mississippi Valley is cool.

Nice pictures!

There are 4 tornado warnings right now in the same area. In the past 3 days, there have been 3 tornado reports on the SPC storm reports.

This severe-warned storm is just about to go over I-25. My place just got rain for 10 minutes.

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of New York state.

A storm is getting going near Parker / C470 area. Maybe Mayjawintastawm can see that.

This is a confirmed tornado

There's a tornado warning near Chariton, IA, which is south of Des Moines. It's a pretty well-formed hook echo right now.

My area had a high of 61 and a low of 39 on Sunday. Yesterday, we had morning rain and evening rain. We had a high of 46 and a low of 35, which was quite below normal for this time of year. Today, it feels so much warmer, because it is partly sunny. We have a light wind but yet only 57 degrees, with a low of 39 this morning. Going back and looking at the MesoWest web site, my immediate area had a low of 37 on 5/8, a low of 37 on 5/6, and low of 35 on 5/5. Fort Collins temperature is at about average for the month. Models and forecasts generally show some showers and thunderstorms for our area on Thursday and Friday. Seasonal snowfall maps for Midwest/West. The Ohio Valley averaged 50% of average snow. Southern Colorado has now been put in to areas of D2-D3 drought, but no drought for northern Colorado, except an area of D0-D1 drought closer to Goodland, Kansas.

If the GFS is really right then we could see dew points of 66F into southwest Kansas, with soundings very supportive of tornadoes, with, thankfully effective wind shear of 33 knots. Overall, I'd like to see shear values over 40 knots for stronger updrafts, but maybe the CAPE and SRH can work together for a reasonable chance at high-end hail and tornadoes. The NAM thinks Kansas will have cold temperatures and an inversion, but has better SRH and effective shear for central Oklahoma. The NAM is kind of weird. I keep thinking that it will eventually flop and have 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE in Kansas. For several runs, the Euro model has had convection from central to SW Oklahoma and down into central Texas around Brady and San Saba. So that might be something to consider. Obviously the southern areas will have lower shear.

The Euro is showing 500mb winds of only 18-35kt winds across many sections of the warm sector, at 18z and 00z. As for severe weather chances, I would certainly hope for global models to predict 0-6km shear values of 40 kt or better. The GFS runs have been showing a corridor of 40 kt shear values, with possible storm motions of only 20 knots in a number of areas.

60 mph wind gust at Lima, OH (airport)

This is the 2nd snowstorm in the US, in 2 days

This isn't really Mountain West weather, but this is my first side-by-side comparison of Radarscope vs. GRLevel3. I decided to buy Radarscope. It has several nice features. There are definitely a few things that are different, but Radarscope has the super-resolution (Level-2) reflectivity. It has super-resolution (Level-2) base velocity, but I don't see storm relative velocity. So I guess I will still have to use GRLevel3's storm-relative velocity for some purposes, which is nearly at super-resolution. They have the same features for composite reflectivity. They have pretty similar features on the dual-polarization fields. GRLevel3 has better resolution on 1-hour rainfall and VIL. Radarscope has a distance measurement feature that makes a circle, showing miles. GRLevel3 has markers for measurement, and you get nautical miles. It's kind of funny that sometimes the maps show different small towns, but that's just the difference in the built-in maps from some national database. Storm tracks are a little different for some reason. Generally, I don't like the storm tracks, so I turn those off when I use GRLevel3. I pretty much just use hail icons in GRLevel3. Nice green hail icons make you think that every storm is throwing out 1"-2" hailstones 100% of the time. That's fun! GRLevel3 is more customizeable in terms of which types of warnings to show, which types of storm information to show (hail, meso, TVS), storm reports, and ability to load specialized color schemes. Radarscope has built-in support for MPING (cell-phone app where observers report any precipitation type, or possibly severe weather). I haven't found any severe storm report button (NWS).

I am playing around with Radarscope right now for the first time. Is there a way to save the screen as a picture?

The first stronger storm is getting going near Dodge City KS down in Texas, this is a 3d look into the BWER of this large storm

We've had a max wind gust to 47mph here at Fort Collins- Loveland. We seem to be in a cool, dry, and sunny air mass, with low temperatures that could get down to 33 here.

The SPC has put out a day-3 slight risk for the Red River area. The forecast soundings have around 75 kt of 0-6km shear, if any (high-based) storms develop there. The College of Dupage GEFS page shows higher supercell indices on Wednesday 5/13 and Thursday 5/14, as well as several days beyond that. I don't know how many people usually look at the GEFS for this, but it might be interesting.

A look into the BWER of the tornado-warned storm at Pineville MO

Just a few minutes ago, I saw the first nearby lightning bolts I've seen all year, with low rumbles of thunder. Several severe storm warnings were issued for NE Colorado this evening. Edit: my place had another thunderstorm at 11:00PM (previous was at about 10:00PM) with light to moderate rain, better thunder, and at several distinctive lightning bolts!! My rain totals are 0.30" and 0.26" for the last 2 days.

These are the narrowest storms I have ever seen a 12km model produce

SPC's web page is breaking all over the place.

Radar base velocity shows up to 75 knots aloft heading for Nashville

There have been about 9 recent severe wind reports with this line of storms, nearing the Mississippi River.

Severe cell in SE Illinois near Shelbyville - radar data showed that 60dBz went up to 30,000 ft. Hail was estimated to be 3", but no hail of that size was reported.