Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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Now that we are getting into severe season, is anybody else annoyed that the SPC mesoanalysis shows a composite radar much more in the realm of light green than bright orange, for ongoing larger storms?
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my place total snow October 1st-April 1st 67.2" (Fort Collins - CSU: 60.7") (Loveland Co-op: 69.4") total precip October 1st-April 1st : 6.75" (Fort Collins-CSU: 6.05") (Loveland Co-op: 6.93") I didn't count September snowfall, as that was kind of a weird out-of-season snow storm that was a pretty weird snow-to-liquid ratio.
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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
Chinook replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
On Friday evening, a dryline should exist in Texas, with a fast-moving cold front coming into Oklahoma. Models have 65-70 dew points in eastern Texas. There seems to be some potential for over 3000 J/kg of CAPE and 500mb winds of 50 kt in eastern Texas. -
On Wednesday, it looks like several severe storms developing along the Mississippi River, with some favorable parameters for tornadoes. At this point, I don't really know if this could be a more serious tornado threat, or perhaps just a modest threat for wind/hail. The 12km NAM and 3km NAM have some significant tornado parameter values of 2 to 5 for northwest Mississippi or southeast Arkansas.
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We have gone from a blizzard to 80 degrees in a kind of short time frame. This is like some of the things we saw last fall.
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I didn't really think this would be much of a storm for the Denver area, but I guess it was. My area dropped from about 70 degrees yesterday to 33 degrees right now. My area probably had wind gusts that were 40mph, but most likely not as bad as Cheyenne, the mountains or farther east in Colorado, all of which had at least 50mph wind gusts I think.
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map produced by UStornadoes twitter feed, also most updated map by SPC
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stronger rotation now with the possible tornado near Watson AR
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radar image of Mount Enterprise TX possible tornado a few minutes ago
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two storms near each other in AR and TN with large hook echoes, tornado warned
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classic hook echo near Osceola, AR
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higher rotation near Hohenwald TN
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Day-1 convective outlook has 30%/30%/10% around Memphis a part of the convective outlook (06z)
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131 mph base velocity
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tornado warned storm west of Junction TX
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possible tornado at Cranfills Gap TX
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The HRRR shows several storms in the Enhanced area from 23z- 02z, including a chance for severe storms near Dallas.
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Several of the top analogs have a large severe weather event, but not the #1, #3, #4 analog matches. (CIPS 00z NAM analogs, 48 hours)
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some more picks-- Thursday, bike trail Sunday - new snow flakes
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If this is the 75-hour forecast for the STP parameter, then I must say that this might be a situation with several EF1+ tornadoes. As was mentioned before, the NAM and GFS have 70 kt to 80 kt winds at 500mb, with 70 degree dew points in Mississippi.
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My place just had a little bit of slop. CoCoRAHS had 0.3" of QPF with maybe 2" of snow. It stuck to the trees, but other than that, just covered over some of the dirty snowpiles, which will eventually look very very dirty in the coming weeks.
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KFTG radar data is still not getting in to Radarscope, but it is getting in to GRLevel3, and it's questionable about my favorite MRMS web page (middle).
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NWS has a winter weather advisory for Denver, so this might be a little more snowy than I thought for Denver. Northeast New Mexico to the Sangre de Cristo range of Colorado should get 24"+
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NWS Birmingham information from NWS Mobile (preliminary) Full text: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSMOB&e=202103200352
