Chinook

tornado near Stratford, TX

GFS - Gobs of Forecasted Snow NAM - Newfangled Adding Machine RAP - Rarely Accurate Prediction HRRR - Highly Ridiculous Rat Race UKMET - Uncle Kevin's Mediocre Electric Telegraph ECMWF - Extra Carbon Makes Warming Faster GDPS - Greatly Disappointing Punch-card System RDPS - Rightfully Disavowed Prediction Service GFDL - Glorified Forecast of Downright Lunacy HMON - Hurricanes Make Otters Nervous HWRF - Home Windows Rarely Fail (except when hit by a hurricane) WRF-NSSL - World (w)Restling Federation Never Slurp Soup Loudly

nighttime blast of wind up to 77mph for San Antonio

Supercell with relatively weak rotation, but possibly 2" hail. There seem to be two segments of the FFD with heavier rain/hail, sometimes called the "flying eagle."

Surface-based CAPE is up to 3000-5000 J/kg from the Big Bend National Park up to Midland/Odessa. That's very high for any time of the year, and it is typical to have isolated 3" hail reports in this sort of scenario.

this is quite a long time ago now, but here is the radar for the reported tornado at Perryton, TX (time of 0041z)

6-hr hail swaths up to 0330z highlight many of the areas that had severe weather or heavy rain. Areas that show 50mm (2") threshold are very likely to have had 2" hail hit the ground.

I thought tornado potential would maximize after 00z, but it looks like there are not a lot more tornado warnings that are going to happen soon.

Here are two cross-sections (colors are total wind speed) across Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri. These show that the low-level southerly jet increases from 34 kt just above the surface (at 00z, not shown) to about 56 kt or 58 kt in a span of 6 hours on Wednesday evening. I have always found it amazing that as the surface temperatures cool, the winds pick up, but above the surface, not at the surface, in these special situations. SPC upgraded to 30% for wind on Wednesday

some tornadoes reported west of Garden City, KS

So this happened very quickly southeast of Goodland

The models generally have a low on the high plains on Wednesday evening, with 60-70F dew points in the warm sector. It seems that 0-6km shear and storm-relative helicity may be increasing strongly in the evening hours. I think we will have at least some severe weather in the central plains.

this storm is quite far from radar stations

one or more tornadoes have occurred near Akron, Colorado- this would indicate a likely tornado was just a couple of miles west of town.

Tornado reported near Akron CO at 2:57PM

tornado watches for high plains, western Dakotas

tornado at about 2:00PM near Deer Trail, CO

possible tornado close to KPUX

Near Karval, Colorado

reported tornadoes for all of these

just checked the velocities- it is about +100mph vs -100mph

Tomorrow- convection allowing models have a wide variety of solutions for the storms that will happen in areas of northern Texas. Some storms could be forming in an environment of 4500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 kt of shear.