Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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I think there's a possibility for a damaging squall line in SW Michigan. This model run is not really an outlier or anything like that.
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So, how do the 00z model runs change the outlook significantly?
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My area had a brief rain shower last night, and today, we had a couple of thunderstorms (no hail.) Tomorrow, the Front Range may see some more areas of thunderstorms, with large hail as a possibility. It is nice that it's not totally dry recently. At least my area is getting close to average for rainfall, with, probably at least 1.52" for the month.
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This squall line has already produced several severe wind reports in the last hour, and intensify to produce many more severe wind reports.
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possible 2-3" hail with increasing rotation northeast of Great Bend, KS
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Up to 7000 J/kg today, and it's only 1:00PM Central
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I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only)
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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8
Chinook replied to wxmx's topic in Central/Western States
Many areas around DFW got around 2" of rain, but some storm cells must have sat over Dallas for a long time. -
One Arizona wildfire has grown to 151,000 acres at the same time a COVID-19 troubles.
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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8
Chinook replied to wxmx's topic in Central/Western States
I was looking at the radar for a thunderstorm in Amarillo, and then I came upon something I hadn't thought about for a long time. Coming from the north, US-87/287 splits into two streets southbound, two streets northbound. It then combines into a single street that is US-87. Then US-87/I-27 goes to the south of town, but US-287 goes east, after combining with I-40 at the large interchange. US-287 then splits away from I-40. -
Sunset last night was a little red, possibly due to forest fires in Arizona.
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Picture of the derecho on June 6
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A couple of days ago, I was going to post about how hot it is going to be. Today, I found some GEFS runs that show a cool and wet period coming up. So maybe this could be a nice (short) period of drought relief for CO/KS, possibly NM and WY. The way things are going, it is going to take many months to get out of the drought in southern Colorado.
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By the way, it snowed yesterday, north of Lake Superior
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This happened a few hours ago at Sandusky, OH. It must have been something like a 100mph wind to break through bricks. source: https://www.wkyc.com/article/weather/severe-weather/look-storms-severely-damage-sandusky-state-theater/95-6e570ecd-3488-4c91-9aa0-af4fe5c48682
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Possible tornado in Ohio, about 25 miles northeast of Ashland, Kentucky. (Ohio River valley.)
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1" hail reported somewhere near downtown Detroit.
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This cell produced 2" hail at Bryan, OH. That's gotta shred some soybeans.
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It kind of looks like a supercell is developing near Defiance, OH. Weak rotation at this time.
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My parents texted me and said it was 97 degrees in Toledo. Maximum temperatures (Mesowest plot)
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Nearly all convection-allowing models produce helicity tracks through MI, IN, and OH tomorrow. 0-6km shear should be 40kt- 50kt throughout the region of the cold front.
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Some of the storms/ supercells looked pretty good today in the Plains severe weather threat. The storms seemed to fire up right next to each other and merge somewhat. I don't think the enhanced risk verified for hail. There were only 2 tornadoes in Nebraska, which may have effectively verified a small-area enhanced tornado risk.
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To me, today was sort of an unexpected tornado risk. I never thought the parameters would be this high, and the 500mb pattern is pretty strange, too. We've got a couple of severe-warned storms near the front in Nebraska.
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My area had wind gusts and quickly dropping temperatures after the cold front. Then, at about 9:45PM, the temperature had fallen to about 45 degrees, and a hailstorm came in with 0.25" hail, wind gusts of 40 mph, and lightning. Then, I think we just had some rain with maybe some lightning, with continued wind gusts over 30mph. there was snow in Laramie and also in most areas of the mountains.
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I saw that this had been retweeted by Reed Timmer (map is from the SPC)
