Chinook

Before we get to Sunday, the SPC's day-2 outlook has a 30% risk of hail in southern Texas, from the Rio Grande/ Eagle Pass area up to San Antonio vicinity. The outlook for wind is larger, but it's at 15%. 06z Sunday: dew points of 70F will be in the area of San Antonio with over 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, with a most-unstable level above the surface. Even with the possibility of reduced shear due to elevated inflow, the 500mb winds will be around 65kt to 80kt, and there is turning of wind (SRH) between 1km and 3km. This is a very impressive CAPE for being 1:00AM-- many hours after sunset.

For our snowstorm, model QPF values are 0.4" to 0.8" for the plains, 1.0"-1.30" for mountains. I am pretty sure that winter storm warnings will be issued for areas of Wyoming, Nebraska, and the Colorado mountains above 9000ft. Northeast Colorado could get a winter weather advisory or possibly even a winter storm warning. Powering up this system, a shortwave trough in a strong northwesterly flow out of northern Canada. You could say that this is an arctic air mass in central Canada. Canada is usually some 25 degrees F warmer at this time of year.

Models are generally showing a deeper warm sector developing near a low pressure/warm front on Easter Sunday, 12z. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of outlook for central/east Texas on Saturday. As for Sunday, I would expect possibly an enhanced outlook for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

4-panel radar with 70dBz hailstorm, 1.50" hail at Macomb reported

Possible tornado near Medina, OH

The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are starting to agree on snow for Sunday and Monday, possible lows in the mid-20's Tuesday morning. It's unseasonable, but I guess there are no leaves on the trees just yet.

I believe we should start a new general severe weather thread, since it's a new decade.

I think I got 1.0" to 1.5".

Will storm chasers even be able to stay in hotels? I guess campgrounds could be open.

There have been 24-hr temperature change values of -41 to -51 degrees F between Denver, western Nebraska, and Cheyenne.

I think my place got 1.63" of precipitation in March, and 5.3" of snow. This is a slightly above average value of precipitation, even though Fort Collins-CSU got a little below average. Temperatures were just a bit above normal. This time of year generally the day of the maximum snowpack depth in Colorado, so I thought I might post some maps.

The GFS and the UKMET are still holding on to the forecast of several inches of snow at Larimer/Boulder Counties. The NWS expects > 3" above ~8000ft in Larimer County and areas closer to Casper, WY. It'll be a shocker, for sure. At my area, we had 70 degrees today.

Lenticular cloud. I have not gotten a picture of a lenticular cloud in the evening for a long time

A confirmed tornado was at Troy Alabama earlier, at 15:36z (Troy Airport)

With this severe weather threat moving east, Valdosta/Moody AFB radar is not working at this time.

It looks like a tornado tracked from Baker Hill, AL (south of Eufaula,) to Springvale GA.

The latest GFS says it will be 28 degrees and snowy for me at 6:00PM Thursday. That's just too cold for 6:00PM, seriously.

Models show some snow for us on Thursday- Friday, particularly Fort Collins to Cheyenne. Once again, the GFS is showing higher values for SE Wyoming (although that didn't work out very well last time.)

This is my best interpretation of the storm survey of the Jonesboro tornado (12.55 mile track)

Here is the 4-hr rotation track map for the Jonesboro tornado (MRMS) at 20:30z-00:30z. I wonder how long the tornado was on the ground.

There could be a CC drop representative of a TDS near Kirkwood, Illinois.

So, what happened then? I'm seeing reports of 1.5" to 2.5" on the southern side of Denver.

As an interesting note, we'll have some storms develop near or at areas of 90 kt of effective shear. I don't think I've seen that. Most of the time, you can only get up to about 70 kt of shear in areas of surface instability.

Now tonight's 3km NAM run has 73/68/ 3200 J/kg near Fort Madison IA at 18z Saturday

Temperatures on the Colorado plains range from lower 40s to 80 degrees. Stratus clouds filled in northeast Colorado earlier today.