Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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I guess you can still get a burger to go...
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Winter storm watches have been posted for Cheyenne's CWA and portions of Nebraska.
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On Tuesday evening will have a dryline near the Pecos River, but perhaps not a lot will happen. The first interesting part of this could be Wednesday evening around Lubbock to Midland/Odessa. The low-level convergence there will be a weak cold front, with 50-55kt winds at 500mb over the region. The models have upper 40's dew points into SE New Mexico, that's why it won't be a dryline.
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Today's 12z ECMWF has up to 7.8" (10:1 ratio) at Fort Collins, and 27" (10:1 ratio) in the low mountains northwest of Cheyenne for the next 10 days.
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A storm system will develop on Thursday with a fairly low pressure - likely resulting in heavy snow in the Rockies and possibly near Fort Collins and Cheyenne. Edit: most models show heavy snow for east/north Wyoming into South Dakota. Another possibility is severe weather for portions of the Plains. As of yet, the SPC has not shown a 15% contour on its 4-8 day outlook. Quote:
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One year ago (March 13th, 2019) an incredible 968mb low formed in southeast Colorado, bringing blizzard conditions and 7.1" of snow to Denver, and 14.0" at Cheyenne. In Fort Collins and Loveland, downsloping winds caused much of the snow to become rain or very compacted snow. That was pretty weird, but Fort Collins/Loveland has had a good share of snow in the past 12 months - March 1, 2019 to today. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/blizzard_of_2019_surface/12.gif
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There could be a TDS near Ash Flat, AR. It's kind of tough to say, with all radars being far away from that area.
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Now the "weird storm" is nearly upon us, as this will be the general setup tomorrow. Not as much snow will fall in New Mexico as previous forecasts had shown. Rain/snow should be fairly light near Denver. The only winter storm watches are for the San Juan Mountains and also central Nebraska.
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Here's an interesting slightly new plot type from SPC HREF- Max and Min (highly negative) updraft helicity tracks. As has been discussed, there is a range of possibilities with supercells/ elevated supercells tomorrow. The SPC may move the risk area farther north into parts of Indiana.
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The 00z models are in the process of finishing up the forecasts for tomorrow. At this time, I don't think there's a need to extend the slight risk much north of Cincinnati OH. The 00z HRRR may be unrealistic about deep convection near Indianapolis. I'm not sure. Maybe elevated CAPE could produce some hail near Indianapolis.
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There is some heavy rain moving into California and Arizona tonight, for lower elevations. Coming up, we will see a turn to stormy weather for the West and northern Plains, including a lot of snow for many areas of Wyoming, Montana, and possibly Nebraska. This whole system should provide some helpful drought relief for areas of California and Arizona. As for the first storm, Friday and Saturday ,the whole situation may skip by the Denver area with light snow amounts.
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I am wondering if we should start a new medium-range tornado/severe weather thread, for general purposes. At the current time, there are no days with a slight risk or 15% risk on the extended SPC outlooks. This could change soon, but I'm not sure. -
I did a little something different with this loop. It shows the 700mb-400mb relative humidity and SLP, so you can see the moisture streams joining up on the East Coast. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_6_2020_700mb_loop.html
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It looks like a 500mb low will be in Arizona and New Mexico, on Friday morning, possibly tracking toward SE Colorado and SW Kansas. We will have to see how the models handle the synoptic details in the next few days.
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This is weird.. and models have quite a bit of agreement at this time, which is also a little weird.
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At the end of this East Coast storm, I may put a loop of the 500mb vorticity on my web site, because it's a 500mb phase. The GFS has 964mb off the coast by 06z, which is still today, in my time zone. Remarkably, this is yet another situation that screws the Boston-Washington corridor out of snow. Coming up soon, we'll have later sunrises, later sunsets, and the 00z models will be on the internet later in the evening. And 06z will be "tomorrow," technically.
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Low-level rotation track for the tornadic supercell at Nashville
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This was the radar from the reported tornado at Crofton KY earlier (8:00PM CST/ 9:00PM EST). At the current time, some tornado warnings are ongoing around Waverly, Tennessee/ Tennessee City
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This WPC blend of models shows the potential for 0.3" of QPF or 3" of snow or more for lower elevations, on Sunday to Monday. It's possible that 5-day storm totals may be at least 8" above 8000ft.
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Models continue to show a lighter snow event on Monday (possibly morning). I kind of hope it's wrong. Too much of this stuff has happened on Mondays and Tuesdays.
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Yesterday, my area had temps of 27 degrees in the afternoon, with winds to 23mph gusting to 36mph at the airport. (wind chill of 13 degrees.) Even if you have lower winds in the city environment, the wind chill values are still much colder than the average temperatures of upper 40's to 50 degrees, for this time of year.
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Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread
Chinook replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Interesting story: on this day in 1965, a great storm tracked from the lower Mississippi Valley to bring 11" of snow to Detroit. As you can see on this map, over 10" was reported in MO, IL, IN, and MI, and close to Toledo. It also seems likely that there were some 10" amounts in Kansas -
This snow squall lasted for about 20 minutes (1503z is 8:03AM) KFNL 241503Z AUTO 31024G35KT 1/4SM SN FG SCT005 BKN012 OVC075 00/M02 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32035/1457 PRESRR P0000 FZRANO
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Mid-week potential of something somewhere
Chinook replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
For all Detroit/ Toledo people out there, the Euro shifted south, with the 850mb low tracking near both cities with 850mb temps of -6C. 5.7" to 6.8" near Detroit, 5.3" at Toledo. -
Some of California and Nevada have increased in drought coverage recently. It seems that the Sierra Nevada snowpack is not going to get a lot better soon. Overall, the West has less drought than one year ago. As you can see, most of the snowpack values are pretty good, and Montana has about 117% of snow water equivalent in the mountains. Not too many areas of the West have been more than +2F for this February, so that is not too crazy.
