Chinook

I think this could be a large rain-wrapped tornado now, based on radar

a storm near Columbia SC may have 2" - 3" hail in it.

I guess this is the rotational signature west of Belmont, NC

14 tornado reports yesterday was the highest daily total since 4/23.

By the way, you and I got pictures of the same storm from a different perspective last night. (See Mountain West discussion)

Confirmed tornado outside of Garden City, KS with much more of a mesocyclone (within a blob of storms) compared to landspouts with a few storms before.

Holly, CO is under a tornado warning. There was one confirmed tornado southwest of the town. Holly had a direct tornado hit in 2007, so I hope nothing happens.

There was a bow echo that tracked northward to the Canadian border. At one point, there was an embedded circulation in the middle that had a tornado warning. It's pretty weird to see a bow echo not tracking eastward or southeastward.

I drove down the road to get a clear shot of this storm east of Fort Collins.

Yesterday, we had wind gusts of 30mph , up to 50mph at Denver, from the southeast. Today, Fort Collins has a dew point of 54, and SPC mesoanalysis shows 2000 J/kg of CAPE, although probably no rain will happen. The CAPE should shift up to Wyoming for the severe weather risk later. Edit: We've been drylined. The moisture is shifting to Wyoming.

We've had a couple of tornado warnings east of Pueblo CO that have been for confirmed tornadoes tonight.

Aside from the weird 500mb pattern, we could have some potential for supercells in SW Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle on Day-3, and near the Red River on Day-4. The SPC has put eastern Wyoming in an enhanced risk for tomorrow. The NAM and Euro have convection at the same place in SW Kansas on Day-3, possibly a squall line.

I was hoping to see the NWS 4-km precipitation analysis from Illinois:

Inside the tornado watch - parameters are much lower than many other tornado watches I've seen. Maybe 0-3km CAPE is more impressive though.

We will have a narrow area of 80-95 degrees on the high plains on Tuesday, while the Mississippi Valley is cool.

Nice pictures!

There are 4 tornado warnings right now in the same area. In the past 3 days, there have been 3 tornado reports on the SPC storm reports.

This severe-warned storm is just about to go over I-25. My place just got rain for 10 minutes.

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of New York state.

A storm is getting going near Parker / C470 area. Maybe Mayjawintastawm can see that.

This is a confirmed tornado

There's a tornado warning near Chariton, IA, which is south of Des Moines. It's a pretty well-formed hook echo right now.

My area had a high of 61 and a low of 39 on Sunday. Yesterday, we had morning rain and evening rain. We had a high of 46 and a low of 35, which was quite below normal for this time of year. Today, it feels so much warmer, because it is partly sunny. We have a light wind but yet only 57 degrees, with a low of 39 this morning. Going back and looking at the MesoWest web site, my immediate area had a low of 37 on 5/8, a low of 37 on 5/6, and low of 35 on 5/5. Fort Collins temperature is at about average for the month. Models and forecasts generally show some showers and thunderstorms for our area on Thursday and Friday. Seasonal snowfall maps for Midwest/West. The Ohio Valley averaged 50% of average snow. Southern Colorado has now been put in to areas of D2-D3 drought, but no drought for northern Colorado, except an area of D0-D1 drought closer to Goodland, Kansas.

If the GFS is really right then we could see dew points of 66F into southwest Kansas, with soundings very supportive of tornadoes, with, thankfully effective wind shear of 33 knots. Overall, I'd like to see shear values over 40 knots for stronger updrafts, but maybe the CAPE and SRH can work together for a reasonable chance at high-end hail and tornadoes. The NAM thinks Kansas will have cold temperatures and an inversion, but has better SRH and effective shear for central Oklahoma. The NAM is kind of weird. I keep thinking that it will eventually flop and have 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE in Kansas. For several runs, the Euro model has had convection from central to SW Oklahoma and down into central Texas around Brady and San Saba. So that might be something to consider. Obviously the southern areas will have lower shear.

The Euro is showing 500mb winds of only 18-35kt winds across many sections of the warm sector, at 18z and 00z. As for severe weather chances, I would certainly hope for global models to predict 0-6km shear values of 40 kt or better. The GFS runs have been showing a corridor of 40 kt shear values, with possible storm motions of only 20 knots in a number of areas.