Chinook

Today's GFS has 7-9" for Sunday/Monday with Kuchera ratios, but today's Euro has 6-12" with 10:1 ratios. The higher mountains could get more than 20" out of this storm.

18z GFS has a bunch of snow for us on Sunday-Monday, 12z Canadian is low, but not zero, and 12z Euro is 6" + for most of Larimer County, but lower for Denver... probably still quite significant with 15:1 snow ratios at elevations higher than 5000 ft.

The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all show measurable snow in the next 7 days north of Denver. There's certainly a good chance of over 6" of snow for the north mountains. It is snowing in Iowa right now, so that's pretty early in the season for that area.

Our area went from 72 degrees yesterday to 40 degrees right now. Today's models have a very snowy look for the northern Plains/ northern Rockies within 10 days. You don't see this a whole lot of times in October.

One of my co-workers who lives in Loveland says she might have to evacuate. I assume she is over by the foothills, but I don't know for sure.

The models certainly have some snow for the northern Plains/northern Rockies in the near term. The models, surprisingly, have some agreement on pretty cold weather and possible snow for N. Colorado on 10/25 or 10/26.

We had a massive column of smoke from the Cameron Peak fire on Wednesday. At times, it looked tan and brown. At other times, it looked as dark as a thunderstorm in the north part of the sky. I think Fort Collins had ash falling from the sky. We also had a cold front come in at the same time, with easterly winds. The smoke smell wasn't too bad until today. Edit: my place has got the ash falling from the sky today. The sun looks like it's as orange as a neon light. (3:00PM, not sunset.)

On Saturday through Monday, some short-wave energy tracked into Canada from the Pacific, which wrapped up into a 500mb low in northwest Manitoba. There was dynamically cooling the air there, with lower 500mb heights. A ridge in Ontario ahead of this system pulled some warmer air aloft up into the Hudson Bay, which partially joined with a ridge over Greenland. The combination of ridging on all sides of the low in Canada is turning into a polar vortex with dynamically cooled 500mb air. This is just the time of year when air in the northern latitudes is cooling due to radiation loss, particularly with clear skies. So, much cooler air is developing at the surface.

I probably should have tried to get a picture of lenticular clouds yesterday, but I didn't.

this one is just for Mayjawintastawm... finally we have a long-range GFS run the connects the possible Caribbean hurricane with the cold front in New England

Yesterday, my area was totally clear except for some beautiful lenticular clouds. It has been probably 2 weeks or more since I saw the mountains with so much clarity, for example, 50 miles visibility out to the Indian Peaks. Today, it is clear, and I can see a little bit of smoke to my northwest from the active fire, with no haze/smoke in any other areas. Some of the trees are really changing to nice colors, although the wind knocked off a significant amount of leaves from a few trees. The GEFS shows broadly cooler air across the Midwest and into our area in the upcoming week.

Granby at 8200 ft had snow reported today. My area dropped from 80 yesterday to about 51 at 6:00PM today.

My area has measured wind gusts up to 47mph right now with the cold front. That ought to mix away the smoke a little bit. Haven't had 45mph since the unusual derecho this summer. Edit: max wind to 51 kt (59mph) at Denver KDEN 112053Z 31035G47KT 3SM HZ SCT090 BKN150 BKN220 16/01 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 32051/2041 PRESRR SLP044 T01560006 53033

Smoke and a little bit of ash are affecting me today. Maybe the fires will keep going for another couple of months

I think the center of circulation has made landfall. The radar can be a little confusing if you don't see a complete circle of radar returns, representing the eyewall. wind gusts up to 82mph out of the north at Cameron LA

observation from "South Marsh 268A" which is offshore from Marsh Island: wind 54 kt gusting to 68 kt, which means the gusts are over hurricane force. Texas Point, Sabine Pass TX (on land) - north wind 54 kt gusting to 63 kt.

How do the great November storms correlate with ENSO? Nov 1913: El Nino! Nov 1940 (Armistice Day Storm): El Nino! Nov 1950: La Nina Nov 1966 (985 mb): possibly neutral Nov 1975 (Edmund Fitzgerald): La Nina Nov 2002 (tornado outbreak) El Nino Does anybody else have any thoughts about this?

What if we run out of letters on the Greek alphabet for tropical storms? What if we retire Hurricane Delta? In the future, will we have to go directly from Tropical Storm Gamma to Tropical Storm Epsilon? It doesn't seem right, but if you aren't used to the Greek alphabet, it doesn't sound so bad.

my personal observations since the firey times started AUG 2020 Aug 1: thunder in the area, evening light rain, 0.35" of rain Aug 2: trace of rain Aug 4: 0.04" of rain aug 7: very hot aug 14: Cameron Peak fire, smoke plume above aug 15: Cameron Peak fire, smoke plume above, and smells of smoke, reduced visibility aug 16: smells of smoke, reduced visibility aug 18: high of 98-99 degrees in Loveland aug 19: trace of rain, around 0.05" in Fort Collins aug 20: lightning in the area, around 0.05" in Fort Collins and up to 0.02" in south loveland (none here) aug 22: high of 95.4 here, 96-101 in Loveland. Smells of smoke in the morning, weird sky all day, smoke from california. aug 25: high 95-97 aug 26: trace of rain aug 28: 0.05" aug 29: 0.02", shelf cloud, wind gust to 25mph or 30mph, possibly brief lightning aug 31: 0.01" sprinkles, light rain AUG 2020 0.47" SEP 2020 Sep 5: high of 96-97, heavy smoke, ash fell from the sky Sep 6: high of 94-95 heavy smoke, ash fell from the sky Sep 7: heavy smoke for part of the day, ash fell from the sky. Low 70's here but 80's and 90's elsewhere Sep 7-8: 0.30" of rain/snow by morning. (little snow accumulation) Sep 8-9: 0.63" water equivalent of snow (and possibly rain), 2.8" (CoCoRAHS) (3.5" on car) sep 9-10: 0.03" water equivalent of snow sep 17: low visibility of 5-10 miles, perhaps a hint of smoke smell sep 26: smell of smoke, strange colors later in day. sep 30: smell of smoke early in the day, red sun later in the day (higher altitude smoke) SEP 2020: 0.96" OCT 2020 Oct 2: smell of smoke in the air. small amounts of ash fell from the sky. low visibility, 5 miles Oct 5: smell of smoke in the air. small amounts of ash fell from the sky. low visibility, 5-15 miles, red sun

It's time for a new thread. Even though there is not too much precipitation in the forecast right now, I am sure we will be discussing mountain snows in just a few weeks. As for now, ensemble means show all the western areas having above normal temperatures until a trough comes into the Pacific NW on about Oct 10-11.

The Front Range has been one of the warmest spots in the country, in these 14 days, well after the snowstorm

I used to go through Florida OH, and Texas, OH on old US-24. They're unincorporated, or nearly so.

Nevada, OH must be near Florida, OH, Texas, OH, Kansas, OH, Oregon, OH, Mexico, OH, North Baltimore, OH, and New Philadelphia, OH. Or maybe it's just close to Ohiowa, Nebraska.

Our area cooled down a lot today. It's 50 degrees at Fort Collins. I thought the cooler air was coming in tomorrow, rather than today.

Tonight is a nice clear night. I looked out at the moon, and it looks like Jupiter and Saturn are nearby. just saw this on twitter