Chinook

The models have been kind of a mess on this one. The NWS digital forecast has 0.50"-0.80" for a large part of the area. The NAM and GFS seem to make a little more sense than before, as they seem to be trying to forecast some convective rainfall blobs, even with the cooler temperatures.

I think this might be a large tornado heading for Douglas, GA. There's 119 kt gate-to-gate shear.

There's a chance that there's a TDS at Jennings, FL, but the velocity data is kind of weird, so I don't know

Enhanced risk for SE TX has completely busted unless there's somehow 80 severe weather reports after midnight

two possible tornadoes in Louisiana

Areas of convection will develop in AL, GA, and SC. The MCS that will happen tonight in TX/LA will move east, weaken, and possibly provide some outflow boundaries for later convection. I think the parameters are pretty decent. The SPC currently has 15% wind/ 15% hatched hail/ 5% tornado UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to ENH for parts of Alabama and Georgia, with up to 10% hatched tornado risk.

Yes, Larimer County had 2-4 drought class improvements in the last 3 months, according to the change chart. Alright! How about this idea: let's not have some huge fire this year.

My place has gotten some light snow tonight. Fort Collins has been 13.4 degrees below average since 4/12. At the beginning of the month, the GEFS seemed to say that we were in for quite a few above normal days. So, days 10-15 of the GEFS were very wrong, as far as I can figure out.

Most models have a cluster of storms in east Texas, with possible higher storm-relative helicity and higher dew points around 68F. This part could be quite messy, but it could result in several tornadoes reports. Otherwise, models show convection near the cold front, possibly 00z-06z, which could be somewhat significant as well. Perhaps one of the more interesting questions is if any storms will go up near the dryline. So, overall, kind of a complicated scenario.

As for me, I measured 4.4" to 5.0" on Monday night. CoCoRAHS reports had roughly 4.0" and 0.40" of liquid equivalent. It was melting pretty quickly yesterday, even with temperatures in the 30's.

New snow storm incoming

Thurs-Saturday snow totals. My place got about 3" and 0.55" of the combination of rain and snow

My place has probably 1.5" on the ground (had some maybe 0.1" of rain before that) -- north areas may have gotten 1.5" to 3"

My place has about 1" on the grass, most was in the last 2 hours.

The rain and then snow basically started when I made my last post, and now the ground is getting white.

My place was completely dry for 24 hours, and now we have some drizzle today. But I suppose then the "storm" might be in the future. Seemingly, this storm is always in the future.

This storm seems to have been non-existent so far for me. There was a bit of snow on the grass, as it fell in the overnight hours, and I haven't noticed any rain.

NWS-digital forecast has 1.5" - 3.3" of snow for the Front Range cities with some values less than 6" for the Palmer Divide, up until Friday 00z (Thursday night). The QPF is 0.45" up to 0.92". This means that my place will have marginal temps, rain/snow mix, or just rain for a long time. I guess might be the whole storm system, as it is getting into this short range forecast window. QPF for the mountains is 1.2" or more (12-16" of snow). WPC- 120 hour precip (going out to Saturday) shows that the mountains could get 20"-25" and major cities could get 0.7"-1.4" of QPF in some format. Oh man, if this were only colder, we would be having some major discussions about this.

The thing that I "alluded to" already happened on 4/9-4/10, and I haven't posted about other upcoming events.

OK, I guess we will have to take this seriously, although still about 5 days away. Like I said, I'd love to see wet grass rather than do some more shoveling

The 12z GFS still has some significant snow for Fort Collins and Loveland. It is starting to get to the point of the year where snow is possible, but rain or very slushy snow is more likely. I think I would like to see rain.

This was perhaps the best radar image of the Brandon Mississippi area tornado. It is possible that it moved northwards or NNE-wards for a couple of miles near Pelahatchie.

new tornado warning just outside Jackson/ Brandon radar location

We've got the first 5000 J/kg of CAPE on mesoanalysis this year. A few severe storms are forming in various places, including Oklahoma, next to the cold front

for those interested: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT FRI APR 09 2021 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ..SUMMARY A COMPLEX SEVERE-WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN, MAINLY DURING THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.