Maestrobjwa

Let's clear something up here: What is defined as a winter where things did "work?" Hitting the median? Having at least one warning level event? Several small events? Things that add up to average? Can you call a winter that failed to produce a 5" event one that "worked"? To me if you can't register at lrast warning level event, that means things didn't weren't working THAT well at any point during the winter (unlike other winters where you could have at least one period that "worked"). As I've observed here the last 7 years, usually something up top was causing some frustration (a lot of "if we had more/less of this feature we could get more snow") Now sure you could make a case where a winter full of 1-2 inchers that added up to median "worked" for scenery purposes...so by that definition maybe others winters "worked" (like the la ninas of 2016-17 & 17-18 that did just enough to deplete snow days, lol). All that to say...it sounds kinda subjective, lol

1) Never said every time...just MOST of the time. Always exceptions (like last year's -AO/-NAO not working). Historically mod ninos have produced the most...followed by some neutrals. 2) I mean don't most of us here want above average...or even above median?......Just me? Lol I mean what's a good winter? 3) Moderate to Strong Nina...name one time outside of 1995-96 that was good! And name a mod nino that wasn't. Strong ninos are indeed hit or miss.

If that's the case I'm sorry the blocking has had to come under a Nina regime. I think if we had had it during 2018-19 that could've been better!

Neutral didn't work two years ago...lol (albeit the +AO rage party was probably the culprit). But are not moderate ninos the most consistent for above average snowfall? I think the only one in recent years that didn't work was 1991-92...and I heard that Pinatubo probably had something to do with that. But mod ninos seem to be once a decade, though...

I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh

It may have already crumbled last winter...lol Well maybe not crumbled, since we did have the -AO/-NAO...it just may not work anymore, who knows?

But again, though...the solar minimum was in late 2019, correct? We're past the lag time! And again...last winter's -AO/-NAO I thought was the result of the minimum...just that we couldn't do anything with it. And even if this year ends up being the actual solar min. benefit, how is that gonna happen with a la nina? And, both 02/03 and 09/10 also happened to be El Ninos...

Yeah we had all but one thread on the entire site completely implode over this last year, lol (how the one in the Great lakes/Midwest forum survived I had no idea!)

Okay I have to ask...why is it that la ninas easily repeat in consecutive years yet El niños don't? Smh And dang it we JUST had consecutive la ninas a few years ago (16-17 & 17-18 I believe)...and here we are again. Shoot if things are gonna warm why can't we see more niño? Lol Would be nice if it worked that way!!

Congratulations good sir!! And Happy Retirement!!

There's one problem with this...last winter was one year after the solar minimum. And lo and behold...we did indeed get our high lat blocking with the -AO/-NAO (isn't that what the whole theory with the minimum is about?) The problem is it didn't do any good!!

Lol...convince myself of what, exactly?

That's what I mean. The "here" and "there" might be getting less frequent. Not so much panicking as weak resignation...5 years and counting since even sniffing over 5 inches. It did not used to be this way. I've looked at the winter from 1980 through now. I'm not sure we've ever gone this long without an area-wide footer coming in some point--at least not since the 70s. Really we can only manage 3-4 inches maximum in a storm in the corridor...whereas before..."now and then" was every 3-4 years. It has been almost 6. I'm gonna miss WSWs, truly....but median is just 2 inchers and 3 inchers...and that would be easier to accept IF we were still able to get a great winter every 3-4 years like we used to. That way it wouldn't be like now where it's like..."dang, it's been 5 years!"...was never like that in my brief lifetime. My concern is what used to be 3-4 times per decade may be even less--and that's assuming things aren't so broken that it can't happen, smh. But again...scenery snows (the 1-4 inchers)...I'm learning to appreciate those too. Last winter was more appreciation of that mixed with some sadness missing what we used to be able to get more often (which wasn't "frequent" but never 6 years apart) But...hopefully I'm wrong and we get surprised!

I mean...a PAC jet dominated winter 3 (or is it 4?) years in a row doesn't warrant at least rational speculation? I mean it seems like we are in unknown territory here, does it not? Unless there was another time in our history where the dang PAC dominated several winters in a row? The lack of cold air source last winter despite the -AO/-NAO that typically gives us an above average winter? I don't know dude...And seeing as it's been almost 6 years since BWI saw a foot, or got too far above median, I'm really beginning to wonder. We haven't gone that long since the 70s. The 80s weren't quite like it...1983...2 footer...1987...above average. 5 year separation. We are working on 6 years...

Ruh-roh....I'll be heading up to Cecil County in a couple hours...hope we can beat the storms!

It's like we're talking about it modeling a Miller B...lol

Yeah it kinda sucks that we can't rely on that as much...because now it's more difficult to know what we need to work to get warning level snow in the corridor again!

So if we can't look at enso...ya wonder how even somewhat accurate winter forecasting even a month out can be, lol (not to mention analogs)

I guess the thing to watch now...is if this feature is permanent. Not sure how many winters in a row we need to see it before we make that determination, though...because if it's becomes permanent...are analogs kinda out the window? Lol

Eh...I wouldn't say the dullest. Imo we are just in the middle enough to make things interesting, lol But when it comes to snow...I think it's just gonna be a tempering down of expectations from pre-2017...a lot of great hits kinda spoiled us!

Ohhhh no you must be thinking of somebody else--not in a million years would a move down there, lol

Dang...that scenario makes ya go *gulp*...Because that might mean, and correct me if I'm being overly simplistic, that we need a legit, moderate-strong El Niño to get good snow (and we only get those what...once maybe twice a decade?) OR...is there another scenario where such pac modification would actually help?

And we haven't been able to shake that since 2016 have we?

But the blocking last year didn't do any good...did it?

Listen we may have to learn to be content with a few inches. I'm not sure we can get bigger snow anymore, tbh. Last winter...some good scenery snow that was beautiful to look at. If we can't get bigger snows I think I can take that as a consolation prize (I guess, lol)