Maestrobjwa

Hey what's that cooking in the south by Saturday/Sunday...

Yo what? Lol

Yeah it's all Ravens purple...lol

I've had my eyes on that time period...why? Solid cold air...precipitation appears to be nearby...and it would be PD/VD weekend Haven't had that combo in awhile...will be interesting to see if this develops!

Question: What was the last nina to have this kind of blocking?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this...Overall pattern can look great, but there's still the "chaos" element...the discreet details that simply cannot be seen so easily until we get closer to an event. That's probably why they say "potential" and not "yeah this exact scenario is 100% likely to happen!" Lol As @Bob Chill said last week...the supercomputers are still a ways away from being able to identify specifics from long range. Perhaps from range you could point out a thing here or there that may make certain details (be it positive or negative) more or less likely to happen, but...that may be the extent of it. The hardest part of this hobby to accept us the "chaos" or "random" part of the smaller details that can determine outcomes! (Which is why the things sniffed out early are so satisfying, lol Would love to get one of those again!)

Agree with you both...I don't think wanting the big dog is unreasonable right now. We've waited quite awhile to get this -AO/-NAO pattern--AND get it in prime climo. Now we finally have it...I do hope we can cash in! (and dang it we even have cold and precip nearby for VD/PD weekend to boot! Can a window get any better? C'mon, lol)

Not quite...it hasn't been "weeks and weeks"...remember that cold air was an issue last month. It wasn't until last week we finally started to get legit cold. What you may be thinking of is the conversation about the awesome -AO/-NAO regime we've been in. Discreet threats didn't start popping up until a little over a week ago, did they not?

This would be an Almanac storm

I'm inclined to agree

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

Oh have we learned nothing about these snow maps? They do more harm than good, I'm telling ya...at least until maybe 48 hours away.

Oh dear...a predictable elevation battle again? Might have to look past this one for that reason alone, lol

Yeah it's disappointing, but I'm trying not to let it get me down TOO much...but it's a bit difficult. Was hoping we'd get an inch or two (never did trust the WSW). But that's okay...perhaps we have more chances coming up (hopefully). Coping skills necessary for days like today, lol

I don't wanna hear you complaining this week, then, lol

Good morning...Well Winter, Baltimore's 5 year-long winter storm warning drought doesn't end today either (this is barely an advisory, lol). But hopefully with the window(s) of opportunity coming up, we will. 5" minimum bar set for each event the rest of the winter...we oughta be due!

Yeah let's hope things improve...because going through the week with just rain would be kinda frustrating. Cold air is so close by...you'd think we could get something!

Well, since 5" is the benchmark, as long as that was still a possibility, they probably had to go ahead and issue it

So I guess they had to issue the full WSW because of how things looked as of 18z yesterday? Wonder if they downgrade it to an advisory this evening...

Agree

If that's the case, it's lrobably an attempt to mitigate disappointment (the whole "if I don't let myself believe a positive scenario can still happen, I won't be as disappointed when it doesn't"...I know, been there, lol

Maybe I'm greedy but...you'd hope we can get a chance for something more than front end the next couple weeks...I mean shoot, we're still overdue for a footer. If great blocking in Feb can't give ya that...not sure what will. I mean 3-6" events are nice, and had we not been so long with our a big snow, I'd more readily take it (but I'll still take it). But those kind of events...I'm not sure they produce more than advisories half the time (in the cities, anyway) unless they go boom. Again, nice scenery, and snow is still snow...but man I'd like a bona-fide warning or two at least. Been so long!

L

Yeah seriously...got all those waves and the icy scenarios and the huge slug of moisture...feels like a literal snow globe of ideas...where shall it all settle? Stay tuned, lol

Now I may not yet be the best at deciphering things on the macro level in the long range but...to my eyes, looks like a wacky week of tracking ahead, lol Buckle up! Thanks for the update @frd ...Gulf of Mexico being open for business sounds great