Maestrobjwa

Probably as pretty as it can get this year--awesome!

Are you doing like...opposite of what you do in the tropical thread? Lol

Disagree with the last sentence: I'm not surprised about why it doesn't happen more often...I'm learning how much of a roulette this is. But ENSO on the other hand is a bit more involved. Now mind you I'm somewhat content with the simpler answer he gave...and it took me a round about way for Googling: I simply looked to see if stirring a cup of hot water cools it down--and sure enough it does! (Hoping I read it right, lol). So it makes sense that the mire wind that blows the cooler the otherwise warm water! So PSU's simple answer led me to a (hopefully) helpful illustration of what happens. Which now makes the talk of "upwelling" and such make more sense...which is, ironically, not so much of a shallow answer after all. So Mr. @CAPE, stick that in yer cod

Yes...now that ya told me. But if I hadn't asked I wouldn't have known where to start. Didn't sound basic to me...basic would be which ENSO is warm and which is cold. But who the heck among those of us just casual observers...knows to even look up trade winds and "thermocline?" (had never even heard that term, nor did I know to look up trade winds). Don't assume you can easily Google everything (because ya gotta know what to look for first). I find that Googling weather geek stuff doesn't always work without a couple clues (that ya now gave me albeit snobbishly). But....I remember someone warning me last season about asking basic questions here (shoulda listened). Albeit...I didn't think what I asked just now was so "basic" (I'd define that as LA nina=cold water, El Niño=warm water, lol)

Now...someone help me out here: Now, just from a layman's point of view...why doesn't warmer climate=warmer ENSO? Like, when ya say warmer waters I'm thinkin' like..."We'll why is the ENSO still cold?" Is it a different source of temperature at work, or?

A la the 2017-18 nina...had some nice cold that December (I remember the surprise inch or two one evening, lol) followed by cold and the bomb cyclone miss in early Jan. (SE Maryland is the place to be in a nina, imo)

Maybe not so much you...but the rest if the board trolling me for being pessimistic about future snow prospects as if it's not logical. I don't get that...My opinions are largely goin' off of what I hear from y'all!! (particularly the more knowledgeable posters). That and my own eyes from what's happened post 2016.

So...tell me again why my snow pessimism is illogical, lol

You're saying cold air is becoming a problem that might be more long-term. I mean ya don't have to hold back, lol (watch out when PSU starts using exclamation points, folks) Your warnings last year are part of the reason why I've gone more doom and gloom for future snow. Yet somehow...that's not a logical reaction?

Watch out for those Ara-rats left behind...

LLJ?

Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol

I'm seriously thinking about it (as long as the mods don't mind!) Not making it to say 2022-23 is definitely the year...just to say 1) How sure I am about this winter being over (for anything above advisory event(s) and that I'd bet the house (if I were a gambler) we get no warning level event this winter...and 2) holding out a glimmer of hope to see if the whole every 6-7 year thing still works, lol And to see if we can still get something going in a non-nina state.

Because I don't see much sense looking past that...we don't know what ENSO we're gonna spin (or if even a Niño will still do any good). And also for the historical reason...another egg laid would match our longest drought (1970 through the 77-78 winter) without a warning level event at BWI.

Yes indeed he has--keep learning and growing, Cobalt!

I'm ready to start a Winter 2022-23 thread. I will completely own it for better or worse, lol

Very true.

Ugh...Today's Nor'easter is a gut punch...because you know it's coming this winter (if we get a storm like this) This is where Philly/NJ and north have it really good in Ninas! I'm already dreading it...eh, just gotta take the punches and stagger on (and not listen to weather news during the event)

Man IF/when we get a heavy snow again, if I hear one complaint about 20 vs 30 inches or so help me, lol

So...when do these weeklies get thrown in the trash heap? Lol I mean seriously, these things look absolutely useless to me (a more experienced mind can correct me here)...I mean are they just used to try and sniff out very general trends, or?

Can't remember hearing thunder this late in October...but perhaps I just never noticed, lol

Woooowee Quite a deluge moving through here now! Cats and dogs

You know it won't...do things EVER track a little closer in a Nina? Lol

So tell me again why predicting mediocrity this winter is unreasonable? Lol This is typical nina!

I actually feel unusually good after this loss...why? 1) This team will be better served by a loss heading into the bye week than a win. We got 5 straight, now we needed to be knocked down a peg or two so that we don't peak too soon. 2) History! In 2012, Week 7 (same week)...we got our butts kicked 43-13 by the Texans before we headed into a Week 8 bye! We all know what happened that season *I see other paralells...In 2012 we were hit hard with injuries that year too (like Suggs tearing his Achilles that summer), the defense looked atrocious (especially in the first half of the season...sheesh), and we had a few miracle wins. (Like winning 9-6 on FGs vs. KC, and barely winning on a DAL missed FG, and of course 4th and 29 later on) So...you just never know!