ROOSTA

GOOD AWFUL WTF Which is it? Anyone care to elaborate?

I'll compromise (2 1/2) it's just a comment to express a point not exact time, Geez! Anyways from beginning to end, end being sometime Wed. Total accum by 8am.

NWS watch, warnings from BOX are measured in content, seem accurate with wiggle room to upgrade or stay as is for 3D lead-time.

It's all tied to IMBY. The scientific aspect is lost come threat time, wishing doesn't equate to an accurate analysis unfortunately. Weigh the comments by who posts.

TIME: Getting close to <48hrs to go time. Sort of running out of model runs. Huge EU run, liking the trends to an offshore more impactful event for Eastern area's. Goalposts have narrowed enough to either your in or your out. Boiling down to the haves and have nots and where?

SREF's (admittedly out-of-range) have a MEAN accum across the landscape much lower than the clown show.

Software available via Unidata. AWIPS and it probably is used by the NWS. I know with GRADS it's just a simple script change in programming,

oh-oh, Mets are playing conservative and for good reason IMHO. The BM track is becoming less likely. Not a perfect capture, stall and stack. Indications leaning toward by the time it does consolidate the SFC center will be at the LAT of BOS, the moisture will have been displaced to the E. so even if the BL cools to support snow it will be of no consequence, also the 40-60mph. gusts from the E toasting the coastal plain. W New England Ctrl NYS parts of the Berks will cash-in on the UL dynamics. Put your horses back in the stalls. This is far from resolved and can change on 6hr intervals.

No dog in the fight really changes the emotional attachment. If you had money on presenting a forecast, I think many would start very conservative most probably wouldn't even comment or forecast.

Many are getting out over their ski's re: The BOX snowfall map? As mentioned, the Agency is where the public turns for Official information and responsible for numerous other Agencies, i.e. Public Works, EMA including the safety of the General Public. It's a First Call Map and way out of range. I'm probably one of few who think it's prudent ATT.

Down to 968 per 18z.

I use to love my boilermakers!

How can it go wrong? One should never base a forecast on the NAM in this type of set-up beyond 2days.

Inside of 24hrs? Thermal profile. Used in warm season for QPF and timing.

Welcome to the show!

What is known, what is unknown? Keepin it real... personal reflect goes a long way. Ironing out QPF, translating to ratios won't be known till. I use the meso's (when in range) heavily on the SREF plume MEAN to pinpoint amounts.

IT'S THE NAM... Not A Model, especially for winter type storms.

Using words as: Possible, First Call, At this time, Subject to change. Will quiet the naysayers. It's a tough field when 99% of the populous have no idea what it entails.

Might start hearing the coveted B word. As it occludes it is a warm core Winter Hurricane.

The CONUS WV shows the ULL system in real-time. Compare where the models initialize that will give a good indication of how, what but won't answer to where.

A fantastic explanation. Much appreciated John. Thank-you If members just read your posts they could learn meteorology without even taking a course.

HOLD ON TO YOUR WEENIES! Nothing resolved, well maybe only a huge storm is about to befall y'all. Complexities of which might just come down to the dreaded "nowcast" Time just flies by. I sit and then look at the time. I thought is was like 10am. FASCINATING!

oops 976 I make mistakes like that all the time. Geez 776 would be end-of-days. Carry-on, my bad.

Not by the models, and far from wish-casting. 970-980Mb is a good ballpark figure.

Yes. I'm really rooting for you guys. Just don't see it playing out as most are portraying. Subject to changing my mind. he-he-he