ROOSTA

Having some fun with the software.

I wish I had a faster connection to the Internet. 130mb to complete download. GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2 (nasa.gov) One-minute updates, detailed structure of the eye. Can see the stadium effect and the hot towers. Behold the Power, WOW

EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location. Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength? Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous.

Eye is present on KBYX radar. Sleeping is over-rated.

OVER/UNDER 20" of Total Precipitation? ________________ Roo- OVER

Several Thunderstorms moving across the peninsula general motion from the SE moving toward the NW. An Outer-Outer band, great, a nice PRE event. Stakes are extremely high as is my anxiety starting to rise. Many people are going to be shockingly surprised if they don't heed evacuations. A disaster waiting to happen.

I'm well inland. Presently, latest model forecasts "if correct" re: Ian's track will be 75-100 miles to the W. Sustained TS winds will begin WED night and not abate till FRI morning. THAT'S A GOOD POUNDING.

Finally going NUCLEAR. BOMBS AWAY! LOL

One thing I've noticed on the model graphics in particular 10m wind none of them get inland speeds correct. Like the wind stops at the coast?

Come on down WU KFLALTOO10

Wait. With all the forecasted precipitation, won't take much wind to bring down trees and cut transmission lines. Widespread outages for days. I went 6 days without on just a brush-by a few years ago.

Hey Steve, Altoona LAT 28.97 LON 81.63 ASL 108FT. Wide-open area so there will not be flying projectiles. I'm going to have to stock-up on water and non-perishables. The stores should open back-up quickly. It's the electric I'm really worried about. Other concerns to lesser degrees. Big Old Southern Oaks surround the house, I mean huge they must be over 200yrs. old. No window protection. Need a battery back-up for at least 1 computer to run observations and keep the camera running.

I'm going to need a boat. From the onset of this tropical system as a threat since what a week, 10 days ago I've really tried to avoid the run-to-run model craze. It's crunch time, it's coming, I'm hooked. It was the GFS that in one run had 40-50" of TOTAL-P, that run also featured a direct hit. Whew! A weakening system with landfall near the Big Bend on the present trajectory is still a severe hit for my location. Ian appears to be getting its act together and because of that the trend to track into the Pan Handle are diminishing. Time to stock-up.

Since moving to FL. I've experienced several Tropical systems luckily; I'm located well inland and not taken a direct (severe) hit per se. 89mph. has been the highest recorded wind speed. I moved 2 yrs. ago down-the-street. Previous dwelling was a hand-build log structure, could and will withstand Category 4 for many years to come. I outfitted with a generator, new roof, a pool the buyer purchased a special home. Moved to an expansive property (10 acres) surrounded by cut pasture with few trees. House is brick circa '78, 2400sq ft. All because I chased some tail, that Beast-of-burden is long gone thankfully...anywho... my health has prevented me from enjoying all the new place has to offer. The GFS has been consistent trending W for several runs. The EURO has been steadfast S and E with slight adjustments to the track W. Given the timeframe and the storm has finally formed the BADBOYS seem to be coming to a compromise. A W coast scrapper? Still time to prepare, still time for the models to (models to do what models do) slight E track trend on the GFS, slight W track on the EURO. ROOSTA ON WATCH.

As much as my enthusiasm would like to see a direct hit I'm brought back to reality. With each model run I'm torn between these opposing feelings. Reality is winning out. Going days without power is not fun, lives effected not as an inconvenience but altered for weeks trying to recover. Early analysis, in regard to the models. West trends appear legit or could be, maybe a false signal. A compromise between EU and the GFS will result in a scrapper. Still way to early. Give it time grasshopper. Will track influence intensity? OR WILL Intensity influence track? Probably a little of both, all dependent on the UL's. Really strong Hurricanes can at times create their own surrounding environment. Still early in the game to declare anything definitive.

I'm in deep DOO-DOO. Starting to get that feeling. For those who want, well you can have it! Nothing "fun" about it. A stall, that seems to be depicted by most the models would be worse case scenario.

I'm not liking the "stall" that the models are starting to come an agreement on. Talk about prolific rainfall not measured in inches but in feet. Surge if not taken seriously in the TB area and for those who don't heed evac warning are going to be in deep doo-doo. And for those who want to chase, and it be your first I highly recommend YOU DON'T. *Before someone jumps on me and writes something derogatory*. Models as of 18z the 23rd.

The track and intensity are far ranging. Tracks have been getting better over the past decade, intensity not so much. Should take away the Globals are coming to a consensus. A placement off the SW coast of FL in the Gulf. GFS compared to the EURO in regards D5 and beyond handle the steering influences differently, M101

Let the hype begin (TD9) It's not fun when considering property. My enthusiasm is kept in check knowing the implication and damage that could unfold. 06z GFS has 40-50" of rainfall over the next 10 days in Central FL. People prepare, storm comes (now know why they party) during and after it's gone all the food supplies can't go to waste... fire-up the grill Novi Scoti, New Finny Land are going to take a swift strong hit...they can handle it...

Hate to tell y'all. They would be garden variety compared to Floridah's. Daily deluge, some rates in the 5-6"/hr. range. Occasionally get a micro-burst with gusts over 40mph. Lightning from a clear blue sky. It was August 2 yrs. ago I was struck, closest storm was 5 miles to my N.

For those who need to update Bookmarks. https://map.blitzortung.org/ COD: Satellite and Radar

A legit Severe threat. Incoming given parameters should increase Cell coverage to the E and threat for TOR's. They're quite electrically charged! CONGRATS

Severe Watches and Warnings be flying in the Northeast. Exciting... I was out driving earlier, drove into a wall, pitch black skies stopped at at light. What appeaed to be a shelf cloud with some scud was actually rotating. Not a Watch or Warning to be found. Dropped 1.17" in about 15 minutes. The hit or miss nature to these storms are random the parameters to set off these cells come and go.

One of the many things I miss about New England. Variability of seasons, change of seasons, these are from my obsession with no fix in sight with the exceptions- the tropics and daily thunderstorms. I could write a forecast starting in May and continue through Oct., Daily Highs 90-95F, Nightly Lows 70-75F with a 40% of afternoon thunderstorms. I check in every now and then living vicariously by means of the forum.

Being a transplant from MA. I've always wanted to experience the fury of Mother Nature. The snowstorms, Noreasters, lived through them all. They're all docile compared to a tropical entity. Since being in FL I've had second thoughts, not worth risking life, property and living conditions. Go a week without electric in the Summer heat, most would agree it suxs. 91L is weak sauce I'll be lucky to see winds in the 20-25mph range. Right sided storms just don't cut it. Still fascinating watching the LL swirls getting shredded with the "fixed' open position N of the Yucatan. NEXT...