ROOSTA

It is what it is. At the height of the storm SFC temperatures are marginal at best. I have no idea where or why I'm "downing" this. Playing devil's advocate to a possible solution.

Locations along the E MA. coast (CC) @100MPH in GUSTS. Still thinking ORH south and east will be toast. A 30 burger just over in NY State.

Still a little convoluted in model land for snow amounts, to many variables still need to be iron out. The prolific 3' amounts are rare even in perfect conditions in the depth of mid-winter. Based on 06z the track is NOT near the BM, the projected stall and capture will more than likely produce a dry slot into E areas. Expect marine taint well inland maybe as far as the Berks keeping QPF way down. Fronto magic will deliver the goods well N and W further than the models are currently producing. Given the marginal airmass elevation will help. Expect random snow-falling in one location and drizzle, light rain next town over, back and forth. By the time the storm matures it's to late the column will cool most in the southern 3 states will be left with light left over snows. I think many are in for a disappointment! Like we haven't seen this before.

Still a long way to go until this gets resolved! I don't trust anything the OP's are running out and will be far from what actually happens. A friigin butterfly could fart in Idaho and change the overall pattern, timing and evolution. It's not like A+B-C*D/F=Z

OH-OH, Red flags starting to appear. Members attitudes about to take a 180, watch the sniping and derogatory comments start. I hope it doesn't, but snow IMBY is taken so personally. In the scheme of life, it is so trivial and insignificant. In importance probably doesn't make the top 100. Personally, it's always been the tracking come event time it's always been a letdown then on to looking for the next.

A long duration event. What is the longest duration for a single storm? 1969 comes to mind for a day to day snow event but that was overrunning week-long Everready Bunny. Kept on going...and going.. Even if a powerhouse, deep 960 comes in at 975- 980Mb it's going to be historic.

18z GFS Height of the storm. One in a million girl, she's a beauty!

The coast is going to get ravaged. A solution that stacks and loops will have a huge fetch flooding for multiple high tide cycles. CF is going to be critical as to who gets what. We have all been here before.

There are some 40" amounts showing up in NE PA on that run. Widespread 1-2'+ for local New England area. BOMBS AWAY! I'll only have a FROPA drop in temperature, a passing boomer or two. Locals here will be hyping a late season cold wave. LOL

GO BIG or GO HOME. It's these events that I tend to be glued to the computer. Often go sleep deprived and get an adrenaline rush. THIS IS NOT NORMAL. Love it!

I like the plunge into the sink-hole abyss. Classic!

One has to wonder why the OP model(s) are waffling? Can't make a sound forecast or predict what the next run will produce. I believe it's normal given the timeframe. Nuisances, driving forces inclusive of all the variabilities upstream, downstream produce different outcomes. Pointing out the difference between the run to run (some do it better than others) with scientific reasoning is one of the greatest attribute for having a forum. To a member nobody will forecast the exact outcome. It's nice to be tracking winter before severe season and the tropics take to the headlines.

Declaration of PTYPE is premature IMO att. It's all dependent on how the atmospheric chaos shakes-out. Everything is still on the table. Signal is strong, repeat SIGNAL IS STRONG. Based on ENSEMBLES and models coming to an agreement (somewhat) this event has a fantastic chance to produce. One must consider a huge gradient with man-sized CF. Watch the winds and flooding coastal tides if the storm achieves its potential.

Please STOP IT! Alot of things have to come together for it just to snow. Eventual track, timing, UL dynamics, think CLIMO.

Fighting against the oncoming Seasonal change. Time is also the enemy as the window closes. I remember April 1st vividly living in Everett MA. How rare that was... took a personal day off as to not commute to Waltham. Went to bed around 2am at the time only a couple of inches thinking that one more shaft-job. Awoke around 10 the sliding glass doors were covered over. Buried under an 8' drift- good ole basement garden apartment. Between 2 and 10am the rates had to be 6''/hr. 20 something inches fell in an 8-hour timeframe. Just one this year for you guys!

I hope you all get buried. Must say it looks promising. ENS, ENS, ENS, watch how the models evolve to agreement or (DIS) agree. Signal is strong, pattern conducive to something. Just another something to watch. SO MUCH FUN... An epic storm of Biblical proportions that's remembered for years to come, a new benchmark.

At least I absolutely NAILED the forecast IMBY.......ready, wait for it......ah, 0.000". I know this is serious business, but y'all gots to have fun. CONGRATS to those who cashed in! Always next time till there isn't. Famous last word "I don't think this season is over."

Still have over .50-.75" of QPF to go for the next 24hrs. HRRR is steadfast in snow amounts in the 4-6" range (still to come) especially in the Merrimack Valley. Whether it happens or not this place is like a broken record. The whiners are going to whine to a decent amount.

Surface reflection now forming off MD/DE coast. Watching SFC isotherms from RTMA sliding the real warm air toward the S and E. Radar returns are responding as expected, lightning in PA. A secondary fronto-band should move N as the L develops.

Repeat after me... V-I-R-G-A Not viagra which takes away virgin and not virgo that would be out of this world and kind of spacey. The column has to saturate and then you'll have bingo.

SPC has a 10% chance of occurrence. Maybe a MESO discussion forthcoming.

MESO's hanging on to widespread 8-12" Transfer of energy to just S of L.I. should complete by 15z. A smidge stronger than modelled.

TOSS EVERYTHING. Board-up the windows, watch FOX. It's a nowcast event. Gather the data, observe but mostly enjoy.

SFC Temperatures are marginal. I want to talk to a Manager! Hell of a way to run a snowstorm

Virga falling in W MA and CT, won't be long now till flakes be flyin. Valleys depicted as rain with the Hills mixed and white on radar returns. I was 1.2F from my 90F day. Annually my stead has about 130 days, and dews over 70F from May to Sept. I'm hoping everyone cashes in! Enjoy!