ROOSTA

Wait. With all the forecasted precipitation, won't take much wind to bring down trees and cut transmission lines. Widespread outages for days. I went 6 days without on just a brush-by a few years ago.

Hey Steve, Altoona LAT 28.97 LON 81.63 ASL 108FT. Wide-open area so there will not be flying projectiles. I'm going to have to stock-up on water and non-perishables. The stores should open back-up quickly. It's the electric I'm really worried about. Other concerns to lesser degrees. Big Old Southern Oaks surround the house, I mean huge they must be over 200yrs. old. No window protection. Need a battery back-up for at least 1 computer to run observations and keep the camera running.

I'm going to need a boat. From the onset of this tropical system as a threat since what a week, 10 days ago I've really tried to avoid the run-to-run model craze. It's crunch time, it's coming, I'm hooked. It was the GFS that in one run had 40-50" of TOTAL-P, that run also featured a direct hit. Whew! A weakening system with landfall near the Big Bend on the present trajectory is still a severe hit for my location. Ian appears to be getting its act together and because of that the trend to track into the Pan Handle are diminishing. Time to stock-up.

Since moving to FL. I've experienced several Tropical systems luckily; I'm located well inland and not taken a direct (severe) hit per se. 89mph. has been the highest recorded wind speed. I moved 2 yrs. ago down-the-street. Previous dwelling was a hand-build log structure, could and will withstand Category 4 for many years to come. I outfitted with a generator, new roof, a pool the buyer purchased a special home. Moved to an expansive property (10 acres) surrounded by cut pasture with few trees. House is brick circa '78, 2400sq ft. All because I chased some tail, that Beast-of-burden is long gone thankfully...anywho... my health has prevented me from enjoying all the new place has to offer. The GFS has been consistent trending W for several runs. The EURO has been steadfast S and E with slight adjustments to the track W. Given the timeframe and the storm has finally formed the BADBOYS seem to be coming to a compromise. A W coast scrapper? Still time to prepare, still time for the models to (models to do what models do) slight E track trend on the GFS, slight W track on the EURO. ROOSTA ON WATCH.

As much as my enthusiasm would like to see a direct hit I'm brought back to reality. With each model run I'm torn between these opposing feelings. Reality is winning out. Going days without power is not fun, lives effected not as an inconvenience but altered for weeks trying to recover. Early analysis, in regard to the models. West trends appear legit or could be, maybe a false signal. A compromise between EU and the GFS will result in a scrapper. Still way to early. Give it time grasshopper. Will track influence intensity? OR WILL Intensity influence track? Probably a little of both, all dependent on the UL's. Really strong Hurricanes can at times create their own surrounding environment. Still early in the game to declare anything definitive.

I'm in deep DOO-DOO. Starting to get that feeling. For those who want, well you can have it! Nothing "fun" about it. A stall, that seems to be depicted by most the models would be worse case scenario.

I'm not liking the "stall" that the models are starting to come an agreement on. Talk about prolific rainfall not measured in inches but in feet. Surge if not taken seriously in the TB area and for those who don't heed evac warning are going to be in deep doo-doo. And for those who want to chase, and it be your first I highly recommend YOU DON'T. *Before someone jumps on me and writes something derogatory*. Models as of 18z the 23rd.

The track and intensity are far ranging. Tracks have been getting better over the past decade, intensity not so much. Should take away the Globals are coming to a consensus. A placement off the SW coast of FL in the Gulf. GFS compared to the EURO in regards D5 and beyond handle the steering influences differently, M101

Let the hype begin (TD9) It's not fun when considering property. My enthusiasm is kept in check knowing the implication and damage that could unfold. 06z GFS has 40-50" of rainfall over the next 10 days in Central FL. People prepare, storm comes (now know why they party) during and after it's gone all the food supplies can't go to waste... fire-up the grill Novi Scoti, New Finny Land are going to take a swift strong hit...they can handle it...

Hate to tell y'all. They would be garden variety compared to Floridah's. Daily deluge, some rates in the 5-6"/hr. range. Occasionally get a micro-burst with gusts over 40mph. Lightning from a clear blue sky. It was August 2 yrs. ago I was struck, closest storm was 5 miles to my N.

For those who need to update Bookmarks. https://map.blitzortung.org/ COD: Satellite and Radar

A legit Severe threat. Incoming given parameters should increase Cell coverage to the E and threat for TOR's. They're quite electrically charged! CONGRATS

Severe Watches and Warnings be flying in the Northeast. Exciting... I was out driving earlier, drove into a wall, pitch black skies stopped at at light. What appeaed to be a shelf cloud with some scud was actually rotating. Not a Watch or Warning to be found. Dropped 1.17" in about 15 minutes. The hit or miss nature to these storms are random the parameters to set off these cells come and go.

One of the many things I miss about New England. Variability of seasons, change of seasons, these are from my obsession with no fix in sight with the exceptions- the tropics and daily thunderstorms. I could write a forecast starting in May and continue through Oct., Daily Highs 90-95F, Nightly Lows 70-75F with a 40% of afternoon thunderstorms. I check in every now and then living vicariously by means of the forum.

Being a transplant from MA. I've always wanted to experience the fury of Mother Nature. The snowstorms, Noreasters, lived through them all. They're all docile compared to a tropical entity. Since being in FL I've had second thoughts, not worth risking life, property and living conditions. Go a week without electric in the Summer heat, most would agree it suxs. 91L is weak sauce I'll be lucky to see winds in the 20-25mph range. Right sided storms just don't cut it. Still fascinating watching the LL swirls getting shredded with the "fixed' open position N of the Yucatan. NEXT...

The converging seabreeze(s) down here are lightning laced with isolated extreme rainfall (5-10")In/hr rates. Doesn't meet severe criteria but a collapsing cell occassionaly produces 30-40mph downbursts, and it's everyday. Enjoy your garden variety boomers. Marine influence knocks down the storms in the NE, here it's the that boundary that sets them off, oh the irony.

Bet your last dollar there are lasers in space that would shoot down ICBM's inbound. Combine that with the Javelins the air defense for the US is almost impenetrable. A ground detonation of a neutron bomb would kill all inhabitants for miles around yet leaving structures intact. Scary stuff.

What a world we live in. At least with war and the battles fought, it's swift. The climate is slowly getting to a tipping point. We be only stewards, so briefly here and it's ruined with implications still to be determined. We know there is a better way. Might be too late though. The planet has become a very small place. The greatest resource and how precious and unique the habitant's (human beings) are. There is no place for dictators of old. Leaders that Suppress, control their citizens should be expunged. A free open society is the solution. Geopolitical differences will always exist, diplomacy and sound leaders can find a mutual agreement. GIVE PEACE A CHANCE... and live as one.

Will the Next Generation of Weapons be used? Technologies of today render conventional warfare obsolete. Biological, Cyber, EMP's, Neutron Bombs. Battles can be won without a bullet being fired. Top Secret "stuff" things unimaginable. First-time witnessing the B2 at the Esplanade 4th of July Celebration I thought to myself as my hair stood on end. "THERE IS FLYING DEATH"

As stated NOT WORTH COMMENTING ON.

It's not even worth commenting on. As the events unfold and escalate. Told you so. Defending, supporting democracy, I guess is a lost cause. SAD

It's been nice knowing everyone. A cornered animal when threatened will lash out and even bite its owner. PUTIN IS A CORNERED ANIMAL. The use of nuclear weapons is now real. One misstep, a yahoo going off the rails... God help us all.

I think I posted a NAM run (10:1) 3 days prior that might have come close. Oh, the irony, on FB I posted a Kuch of the HRRR man that one blew. Ray even critiqued. LOL

Sure did get warmer than thought. Still a good snow storm. Any snow is good snow.

Reading comprehension FTL. C O L L E C T I V E L Y Models seem to be locking in. Hit 90F today. With it so beautiful down here I'm still jealous.