ROOSTA

Potential threats are numerous. Pattern looks good for early snows. Of course, the usual timing, phasing. moisture, air mass and track come into play. Also, any other variable one can think of.

A post from my FB presence When trying to "sniff" out storms it's very difficult getting the timing correct. First thing to consider is the larger picture. Hemispheric and Continental patterns must align in general to create conditions that are conducive for just the formation of a storm. I might have jump on this threat to early. Models are not in agreement for a widespread snowstorm. That is a red flag of caution, usually resulting in no storm. The threat is still present but down to (1) Pattern recognition is crucial. This threat seems to be slipping away. Still must watch very closely if things change! Even when conditions are perfect, everything is in agreement the devil in the details on a meso-scale must be considered bringing all the variables into play. Extremely difficult to forecast!

Looking very winter-esque. Potential for a few events over the next 2 weeks. Something to track and scrutinize is better than nothing. One at a time, awaiting the thread... AND SO, IT BEGINS

Without question. Time to get the sharpener out for the upcoming Winter Season threats. Oh, FYI the flooding from Helene and Milton are still ongoing. Move and stop building in low-level areas. People will never learn but rather blame the government officials.

It ain't ova till it's ova. Seems that big slow-moving canes have been developing the last few seasons late. This year is no exception. Signal is strong, repeating SIGNAL IS STRONG. Not looking forward to this one in any form it takes. Flooding is still on-going and my tree isn't chopped yet. Taking a 180, first snow in Boston DEC 18th.

People are still without power. It's the flooding that has affected most of the area and will continue for weeks to come. Trees are downed everywhere. Takeaway is the most destructive aspect of the storm, FLOODING. I DON'T THINK THE TROPICS ARE OVER FOR FLORIDA! I consider (one tree in front) myself to be lucky. I'll never flood, and the house is sturdy enough build well with a hurricane standard roof. No chainsaw to be had anywhere within 50 miles.

Surprise, surprise my power is out. Only one big pine fell, lucky. Only a foot of rain, highest gust 85mph.

Meant to post earlier https://www.facebook.com/share/p/B1WTggiDn4ppvrmC/ A variety of cams

The Inner Core is intact

Blitzortung.org - Live Lightning Map Already starting to get some rumbling. This is not good.

Discrete cells with definite hooks propagating outward in the first true outer spiral band - RFQ Does anyone know how fast an EWRC has taken place? My expected gusts have dropped for N. Lake County. I just want the power to stay for one good meal Dinner tonight. LF Tampa Bay.

Moving slightly N of NE at least by my estimate. TB radar using GR3v2 range rings with marker. Official forecasted track N of previous advisory. GFS (hot stuff) has been steadfast on track. Social Media is bonkers everyone has an opinion, not worth posting anymore.

Almost in radar range. Discrete cells - waterspouts galore KBYX. Not a good sign for RFQ EF spin-ups tomorrow.

Yes, gaining more LAT than LON presently and not a wobble. My call straight into TB. Call it THE TB12 payback for Pats fans. LOL j/k Serious stuff right there. ****** PSU website has 1 minute refresh with better resolution for SAT

How low will it go before another ERC? Perfect symmetry. All systems go. LF earlier and stronger.

The further S this tracks the better as far as I'm concerned. Milton appears to be RI to maybe challenge the lowest pressure record once again. My adrenaline is pumping. Scary to think of the damage in Coastal communities as well as inland direct path.

Distinctly noticing a wobble to the right, lost the symmetry from its peak. EYE is contracting to a pinhole. Anyone have the latest vort data?

Written with a tinge of sarcasm. I'm well aware of the destructive nature of storms in New England.

Unfortunately, no. I did at my first house here a Generac. Just haven't gotten around to getting one at the new place. No portable generators in stock anywhere in the state. Nice to see the highways jammed, people heeding the warnings and threat. ERC in progress. What a Monster

Must be said. This doesn't even come close to tracking a Nor'easter (Blizzards) A nice gentle snowfall with 70mph. winds, accumulations 4"/hr. Sure, some power-outages and travel standstills BUT at least building stay intact. A 20' surge and 2-3X the wind-force is a completely different BEAST. I'm fully expecting the power outage here for 5+ days.

Just envision a 10-mile-wide tornado akin to Andrew and surge of Camille.

18z GFS initialized only 50mb off actual pressure. Uncharted even HFSA had the lowest at 910mb through the run. The 12z HFSB has an 880mb as the lowest pressure which will break Wilma.

AWESTRUCK is one word. BREATHTAKING is another. And to be in the path... Wow, I pray the people under evac get out. Record breaker for sure! How low will he go? NHC site is crashing.

Caught between the adrenalin rush from tracking, watching it bomb-out and the catastrophic damage this could cause. Family picked a bad week to come down to Disney. The wind-field radii is going to be expansive and strong. Cone is narrowing! How low will he go?

Reverse surge in TB if verified as is now, that's going to change on the 18z runs.