osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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Nice small step forward, but we need to keep going that direction now. Can't afford steps back in future runs. It just doesn't quite get going soon enough for us. Still just way too far off the coast.
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The NAM is rolling. Can it pull us back in?
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The current tracks are actually quite climo.
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Sure, it is possible, but the goalposts are narrowing and even with the usual overamped NAM and Euro, we are on the very southwest edge of the decent snows. Time is running out for a boom scenario. But the runs today should give us the clarity I would think.
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I think the phrase is "it's getting late, early." Looks like all the models are realizing it's a Miller B in a La Nina.
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Oh boy. That's really ugly, and not just for us. NYC gets almost nothing and Boston is not getting crushed.
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Same. Some people acting like the storm is moving due north and so is the precip and all that stuff in SC is getting up here. Nope.
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Yeah, the next run will show a significant amount more, but 12z should give us the whole picture, even if it's at range.
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Hahaha I hope, man. You can have it all if I get 20 inches.
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People saying 15-20 inches in DC? LOL.
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Yeah, some are getting carried away. The low was almost past our latitude by the time the NAM ended. That said, it does look like the potential for a widespread warning event for most of us. It was still clear that the focus was going to be along the coast, however.
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It looks good at 78 but then 81 and 84 it drifts too far east. You can see it goes from rain to snow in OC in that time period and the heaviest snows are right on the coast. Either way, I'll take it. Another solid step forward from the NAM. Just keep sharpening that trough.
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But except for the 970 outlier, those are still too far east. It's better for sure, but we need it tucked more than that.
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Not great. Would do anything for the 970 just southeast of OC. That's perfect.
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Yeah, it has to be much sharper for us to have a shot. That's been a frustrating aspect.
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I'm sure the GFS solution is ultimately closest to the correct one. I've been shouting about teleconnections for days with this. But I'm rooting for the Euro closing off sooner scenario and bombing us and hoping for a historical, unprecedented event here.
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The ensemble map definitely is a tad better. Going to start needing some bigger leaps here in the next 48 hours, however.
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Hopefully the JMA progressive bias thing is still a thing. Would give some hope.
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Just shift it southwest a tiny bit and we boom. Too bad it's almost certainly wrong lol.
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No doubt. The CMC snowfall map is literally what every Miller B in a La Nina looks like. Boston gets dumped on, NYC can go either way and then snowfall drastically reduces the farther southwest you go. The hope is one finally breaks our way, but we all know what is 99 percent likely to happen.
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Yeah our best coastal storms are always lows juuuuust off OCMD, not lows out in the middle of the ocean. Hopefully, we get another few shifts west and we can get it there, but the GFS op is nowhere remotely close. Maybe the Euro can give us some false hope.
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Did the CMC snowfall map ever come out?
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Close, but not really THAT close still. Some adjustments will get us closer but, at least for us around 95, sorry OCMD, but we want that rain over top of you, and it's still pretty far off the coast.
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Wow, all whiffs. Very odd given some of those low positions. Might just still be too far east. We really need it tucked right on the coast.
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Now that's the trend we need. Nice clustering of lows not only moving west but also shifting south as well. I would expect the some pretty big snows very close to 95 with those low positions with the individual GEFS members. The question is if the GEFS have any value anymore.
