osfan24

It's a shame because the returns overhead right now are really nice. There is definitely some juice in this wave. Just not cold air.

Think this one is going down as a bust. We NEVER do well with these kinds of waves where it starts as rain and then will change over to snow. The cold is always later arriving than models believe. I'm supposed to be flipping over in the next hour and it looks like the cold air is still stuck up in PA northwest of Hagerstown.

Uh oh, the Euro getting its revenge?

I think these storms bust a lot but the fact the Euro shows so little has increased my confidence we will get a nice little snow.

These events are always tricky. I feel like they always fail and it never gets cold enough in time, or the wave ends up farther north than expected.

I can't believe anyone cares what the Euro shows at this point, especially that far out.

The Atlantic Ocean?

It starts in about 72 hours. Well, it was going to.

I was definitely thinking of your area as one that has been really screwed so far. And like I said "so far" in my post. And if it wasn't for the pattern being really good so far and for people cashing in around me by pure luck, what I've gotten so far would have been pretty good given expectations before the winter started. But if the pattern really does flip in February, which is still unknown but being speculated, that gives us about two weeks to make it happen. And unless something changes, not much is going to happen for probably close to a week if the weekend thing misses as it appears it will.

Euro has fallen apart. Didn't someone mention that the upgrade seemed to impact its accuracy in our part of the world? This is just sad. I'm wondering how DT will continue on without his precious Euro. Still looks like it could be a nice southern slider if it can hold on.

To be fair, it kinda depends on your exact location. I’m not saying it has been terrible, but given they hype and the close calls, my location has felt like a disappointment so far. If you live in parts of Virginia or the Eastern Shore, it’s been pretty awesome and might be about to be one of their best winters in recent memory if they hit it big on this one.

GEFS have been awful in previous storms and the Euro is taking steps back?

DT is having a brutal winter of forecasting so far. Embarrassing really.

Sweet. Trade a big snow storm for a couple of inches on grassy surfaces.

But isn't the GFS seemingly moving toward the Euro? Not necessarily saying it will move all the way to it or we will get a big storm, but Euro has been rock steady for 4-5 runs now while the GFS is all over the place. I feel pretty good about where we are right now. Hopefully, we see the GFS take another step at 12z. Also would like to see the CMC take a step there as well.

FWIW, Bernie Rayno is pretty excited about the setup.

Same.

Maybe for coastal sections. Nothing happening in the cities, at least on that run.

Strange times where we get upset when the Euro shows a storm and the GFS doesn't because we know the GFS is probably right.

If the Euro is right, most will hit climo or be above climo come Sunday morning.

Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance?

Looks like some wraparound snow came through at some point as it looks like all the snow on hard surfaces was washed away by the rain and now I have a light dusting there. Was pleasantly surprised to see the trees coated and a solid coating on grassy surfaces seemed to survive the monsoon.

33 and rain. What a depressing radar. So juicy to the south. Could have been a huge snowstorm. Another missed opportunity.

Guessing right about at it now. Have about 12 inches this year so far.

Just started sleeting now. Probably got about 3 inches before the flip.