osfan24

Yeah it is brutal. You have ridiculous rates east of 95 down by Route 50. Then you have Frederick with snow and a super sharp cutoff line just northwest of me. It's snowing pretty lightly here. Unless I get a push of the heavy stuff into my area, probably going to end up with 2-4 at best. I'm not sure which model nailed the extremely sharp cutoff correctly, but they all nailed the fact that it would be extremely sharp somewhere. Good for the Southern MD folks. Pretty sure they have as much snow as me the past five years.

Ehh, that isn't all coming up here though. All of that down there is going to pivot almost due east.

I'm out by Turf Valley, so your location is a bit southeast of me, which should help you.

FWIW, I've got snow on the ground (not much), but the 3k NAM doesn't show it snowing at my location until later this morning. That said, just looking at radar, unless that stuff near DC can really push up here in the next hour or two, I'd lean toward the 3k and my area not getting very much over the HRRR and RAP showing close to 8 inches. It's crazy the differences in models and where the cutoff line is.

Razor's edge here in Hoco. I'm probably in the 3 inch range on that map, but oh so close to nothing or more than doubling that amount. Going to be so interesting to see how this plays out and who gets what and which model was best.

Yeah, I feel really badly for anyone in our area that ends up fringed with this one and gets a few inches while others get clobbered. We've all waited so, so long for this. Likely the best storm for a bunch of us since the 2016 blizzard.

But looking at just the BWI plume, for example, there are a few that are basically no snow, a couple with decent snow, and then pretty much 80 percent of them are below the mean, which is about a foot. So I'm not sure it's really being that skewed by the crazy high members when almost all members are pretty crazy high.

Yeah, toss out a few of the ridiculous low totals and the mean is more like 16.

Woah. Other thing that is interesting is that, other than a handful of low outputs, almost all of them are above the mean. That would be incredible.

What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon.

I mean, I just don't understand some of the maps out there given this. I think the GFS is generally terrible but I have to admit it has been the clear leader with this storm. I'd hang my hat on a GFS/Euro blend with this one over the other models and take my chances.

Hey, we will find out. That's what makes this fun. I just think it completely ignores the GFS, which has been leading the whole way, and the Euro, which are both much farther north. HRRR is still a bit out of range but the 7-10 area looks like it will be better suited for an ark than an igloo, but that's why he's a met and I'm just a weather fan!

No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way.

Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM.

What south trend? There is no south trend. The NAMs went a bit south. No other guidance is doing that. Other guidance continues to shift north. Could it change? Sure. But I'm confused how there is a south trend right now.

It appears that way. Very weird.

Think you will do quite well. Would be surprised if this doesn't tick slightly farther NW over the next few runs.

Appear to be a few KU's in that mix, mostly pretty isolated areas and confined to Southern MD and VA.

Would like to see a better tilt on the snowfall output. Little too much east/west for my liking. But that was a really good run obviously. Hopefully, the Euro ups the ante.

Yes, though one would think any shifts would start to become smaller from run-to-run. Loved that huge shift on the NAM. Might the GFS score a coup on this one? I'd have to eat some serious crow after I trashed it a couple days ago.

I bet the next run of the NAM jumps far NW then as well. Seems like the SREF's always tell you what the next run of the NAM will do.

Pretty decent shift on the Euro. I'll take a few more of those through midday tomorrow. Hopefully, it's playing catch-up with the GFS. If nothing else, this looks like either a nice hit or a painful miss here. Seems unlikely it's a complete southern slider now.

Yeah I don't see the potential for it to be big. No blocking means it just zips along.

Sure looks like it to me! Imagine what a slightly more negative tilt and a little more separation would do? If the GFS is right, we seem like very, very small moves from something quite significant.

Running low on time for the kind of shift we need at this point.