osfan24

Sure looks like it to me! Imagine what a slightly more negative tilt and a little more separation would do? If the GFS is right, we seem like very, very small moves from something quite significant.

Running low on time for the kind of shift we need at this point.

Just can't get it to climb at all. It's a killer it won't climb and wrap up a little. Just skirts ENE out to sea from OBX.

Yeah, my bad. Was looking at 6z. It does look good. Probably a tad better than GFS.

Yeah, even the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with it. GFS and RGEM vs Euro, CMC, NAM. Hmmm.

RGEM often seems as amped or more amped than the NAM. It's about as useful as the GFS.

I agree, and I'd feel really good about where it sits on the GFS if it wasn't for the fact it's on an island by itself in both track and intensity.

ICON and GFS vs. Euro and CMC. What could go wrong?

Hmmmm wonder which is right? The GFS almost always folds to the Euro, especially when it has the CMC on its side. I don't even care about the GFS or GEFS when it comes to snow anymore. It's a joke.

That early January period is one I would heavily bet against. When the pattern flips, we rarely, if ever, have success right when it flips.

Tilt negative please!

The big storm last winter was cool because it snowed for such a long time and I can't ever remember almost continuous snow for three days. But most of the time it was extremely light rates and of course areas northeast of us were getting smoked, so the realization you were so close to something big takes some of the fun away.

Last year was agonizing. So close a few times, especially the two big ones if I'm remembering correctly, and coming off some dud years, too.

Yeah, he was great. I think he got tired of the haters and stopped posting. Wish he would have just ignored them and kept up the daily posts.

Looked at radar an hour ago and thought there was a good chance I would at least see some flakes at some point. Not looking as promising at the moment. Nice band down by Fredericksburg.

Yeah, that looked like it was about to be what dreams are made of. Too bad it's forever away.

Look at that Hoco bullseye!

GFS is straight trash.

Southern members have actually done extremely well compared to the heart of the forum the past several winters.

GFS looks amazing and would be our biggest December event in over a decade but I think we can all see the writing on the wall. It's probably 1-2 runs away from being the Euro/CMC.

Flakes here. Definitely way more than Saturday night. Nice way to start the day.

We had a few flakes on our cars this morning, but haven't seen any flying yet. Did see the lightest flurry in the history of flurries on Saturday night.

2013-2014 was amazing. Most wall-to-wall winter I can remember experiencing. Very cold day after day and above average snowfall. 09-10 will always be king in snowfall but 13-14 was true deep winter and never really relented.

Yeah, that's definitely the story of this storm so far. Hope it doesn't rise too much higher for those folks. I wonder what the highest tides were during Isabel. I remember some areas in Baltimore County were basically wiped out.

If that area fills in and we get a nasty line to form, it could change things and maybe we get higher winds and end up closer to 2-3 inches. It just looks rather sporadic once you get past Southern MD. I guess it really depends on what happens in that area northeast of Richmond that seems to be trying to expand a bit. I'm curious if a new line is going to form or if the line northwest of DC is the one shown on most models as being the main show. The NAM looked really impressive about 24 hours ago but definitely looked less impressive since then.